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Brendan Cole
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Project 2025, the plan to reshape the United States federal government under a Republican president, described Venezuela as a critical nation that required closer American attention well before President Donald Trump was reelected.
The 900-page document from the conservative Heritage Foundation, published in April 2023 and named after the first year of the next administration’s term, outlined major changes to federal agencies, civil service rules, social policy and energy.
It also carried a significant foreign policy component, describing Venezuela under ousted President Nicolás Maduro as among Latin America’s “left-wing authoritarian kleptocracies.”
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“To contain Venezuela’s communism and aid international partners, the next administration must take important steps to put Venezuela’s communist abusers on notice while making strides to help the Venezuelan people,” Project 2025 said.
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Why It Matters
Project 2025, also known as the 2025 Presidential Transition Project, was a blueprint for domestic and foreign policy for a conservative administration, and while it did not detail regime change in Caracas or elsewhere, it did designate the country as an international priority for the U.S. government.
The Trump administration’s national security strategy, released in December, prioritizes the Western Hemisphere and has given more details about Washington’s focus, exemplified by the U.S. operation to capture Maduro. The ousted president has appeared in court with his wife, charged with narcotics and weapons offenses, and has been replaced by Vice President Delcy Rodríguez, now acting president.
What To Know
The 900-page Project 2025 mentions Venezuela at least six times in sections outlining foreign policy concerns for a conservative administration were it to take power in 2025.
In deriding socialism, the document said Venezuela was once the richest nation in South America, but “a decade after a Marxist dictator took over, 94 percent of Venezuelans live in poverty.”
Elsewhere, Venezuela is listed as one of the five countries on which the next administration “should focus its attention and energy," the others being China, Iran, Russia and North Korea.
It goes into more detail on page 181, describing Venezuela as “once a model of democracy and a true U.S. ally,” which had “all but collapsed under the communist regimes of the late Hugo Chávez and Nicolas Maduro."
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It also said that since Chávez was first elected Venezuelan president in 1999, the country has violently cracked down on pro-democracy citizens and organizations, “shattered its once oil-rich economy, empowered domestic criminal cartels, and helped fuel a hemispheric refugee crisis.”
Trump has justified the military buildup in the Caribbean and subsequent removal of Maduro as driven by the Venezuelan government's role in the narcotics trade, accusations that Maduro has denied.
Project 2025 said that its communist leadership has drawn closer to “some of the United States’ greatest international foes,” such as China and Iran, which have sought a foothold in the Americas.
Matt Gertken, the chief geopolitical strategist at BCA Research, told Newsweek that after Maduro's ousting, the immediate U.S. objective was a change in Venezuelan policy to reopen and liberalize the economy. Meanwhile, the larger strategic goal was to reassert the Monroe Doctrine, which refers to U.S. dominance in the Western Hemisphere and its sphere of influence, he said.
Gertken did not see the origin of Trump's action in either Project 2025 or the 2025 National Security Strategy, "though they did reflect the administration's intentions."
"Venezuela's collapse of governance encouraged emigration and enabled drug trafficking and foreign influence. It coincided with the period of declining U.S. security, creating a contradiction of interests that the U.S. was increasingly likely to address," Gertken said.
"The nationalist movement emphasized the need for the U.S. to reassert itself globally against great power challengers, including to reassert the Monroe Doctrine and the U.S.' interest in secure borders and preventing foreign powers from gaining strategic influence in the Americas," he added.
Russia and China may also try to expand their own spheres of influence, which could lead to clashes with neighbors in their regions if the Trump administration does not improve cooperation with allies to deter encroachments, Gertken said.
The Project 2025 document said that to contain Venezuela’s communism and aid international allies, the next administration “must take important steps to put Venezuela’s communist abusers on notice while making strides to help the Venezuelan people.”
Venezuela was then mentioned in the document as among the countries in the Americas that have joined "regional security threats.”
Later, the document described Venezuela as among “left-wing authoritarian kleptocracies” in the region, which deny people freedoms, “and ruthlessly suppress any dissent, repress communities of faith, and generate such misery that hundreds of thousands of their citizens have attempted to cross our southern border.”
What People Are Saying
Project 2025 says: “Venezuela has swung from being one of the most prosperous, if not the most prosperous, country in South America to being one of the poorest.”
It adds: “The next administration must work to unite the hemisphere against this significant but underestimated threat in the Southern Hemisphere.”
Matt Gertken, the chief geopolitical strategist at BCA Research: "President Trump and his circle showed a serious interest in taking action during Trump's first term. So I am strongly disinclined to see the origin of Trump's action in either Project 2025 or the 2025 National Security Strategy, though they did reflect the administration's intentions."
What Happens Next
Following the success of the U.S. operation in Venezuela, Trump has warned its interim administration that cooperation with Washington was necessary.
Gertken predicted that the U.S. would not directly administer Venezuela, but that the military would rule during a transition period in which Washington would pressure the regime and push for further political change and economic reform.
“The U.S.’ success in this operation will encourage it to increase pressure on Cuba, and possibly also Iran, which could revive the risk of conflict there," he added.
Update 1/7/26, 11:53 a.m. ET: This article has been updated with further comment from Matt Gertken.
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