White Christmas Weather Forecast: Will We Have Snow Near Me on December 25?

Dreaming of a white Christmas this year? You may potentially be in for a treat in some parts of the northern half of the U.S. based on the latest data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

According to the latest (1991-2020) U.S. Climate Normals from the NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), the uppermost region of the country's northern half have around a 60 to over 90 percent historic probability of there being at least one inch of snow on Christmas at weather stations in these areas.

Some of the areas with the greatest historic probability include portions of the northwest (including Washington, Oregon, Idaho), the Midwest (including North and South Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan) and the northeast (including New York, Pennsylvania, Vermont, Maine, and New Hampshire).

A winter forest landscape of snow-covered trees.
A winter forest landscape of snow-covered trees. Some people residing in the northern half of the country may be lucky enough to see snow this Christmas. iStock/Getty Images Plus

The 1991-2020 Climate Normals show the latest three-decade averages of various climatological measurements. These include daily and monthly Normals of temperature, precipitation, snowfall, heating and cooling degree days, frost/freeze dates, and growing-degree days) observed at nearly 15,000 stations. The majority of these stations are operated by the National Weather Service.

While the aforementioned areas have a historical probability of seeing at least one inch of snow on December 25, "the actual conditions in any year may vary widely from these because the weather patterns present will determine the snow on the ground or snowfall on Christmas day," explains the NOAA.

Children looking at snow from window.
Children looking at the snow falling outside through a window. Some parts of the country's northern half, including in the northeast, northwest and Midwest, have over a 50 percent chance of seeing snowing on Christmas Day. iStock/Getty Images Plus

Areas With the Best Chance of a White Christmas

(according to the NOAA, based on the latest 1991-2020 U.S. Climate Normals)

  • Upstate New York
  • Maine
  • Minnesota
  • Idaho ("practically anywhere" in the state, according to the NOAA)
  • The Allegheny Mountains of Pennsylvania and West Virginia
  • The Rockies
  • The Sierra Nevada Mountains
People skating in Central Park, NYC.
People skating in New York City's Central Park on the day after Christmas in 2002, after a northeaster left up to five inches of snow in the city on December 25 that year. According to the latest data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, this year upstate New York has a historic probability of there being at least one inch of snow on Christmas Day. Spencer Platt/Getty Images

Will We Have Snow Near Me on December 25?

Below is the historic probability of there being at least one inch of snow on Christmas in different states, based on the latest 1991-2020 U.S. Climate Normals.

  • Idaho: Over 90 percent chance across most of the state.
  • Illinois: Around 40 to 50 percent chance in the northern half of the state.
  • Maine: Around 60 to over 90 percent chance across the state.
  • Michigan: Around 50 to 90 percent chance across the state.
  • Minnesota: Around 60 percent to over 90 percent.
  • Montana: Around 40 to over 90 percent chance across the state.
  • New Hampshire: Around 60 to over 90 percent chance across the state.
  • New York: Around 90 percent chance in upstate New York, around 50 to 60 percent in the lower portion of the state, less than about 25 percent in New York City.
  • North Dakota: Around 60 to over 90 percent chance across the state.
  • Oregon: Over 75 to 90 percent chance in portions of the state.
  • Pennsylvania: Around 50 to 90 percent chance in the upper region of the state.
  • South Dakota: Around 40 to 90 percent chance across the state.
  • Vermont: Around 75 to over 95 percent chance across the state.
  • Washington: Over 90 percent chance in the northern and western edges of the state.
  • Wisconsin: Around 40 to 90 percent chance across the state.

See the NOAA's Climate.gov website for more information on the chances of snow for other states.