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By Sam Stevenson
Associate News Editor
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Ten days before the midterm elections, the battle for Congress is coming into focus, with Democrats favored to take the House but facing a more competitive fight for the Senate.
Democrats have a 95 percent chance of winning the House and a 76.4 percent chance of Senate control, according to the Silver Bulletin’s forecast, while VoteHub, Decision Desk HQ, and RealClearPolling averaging show a closer fight in the upper chamber.
Control of Congress matters now because November 3 will determine which party can advance legislation, lead committees, and scrutinize President Donald Trump during his final two years in office.
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Voters in eight states – Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, Maine, Michigan, South Carolina, and Texas – are positioned to have an outsized influence, with each Senate contest separated by fewer than four points in Nate Silver’s polling average.
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Why It Matters
Midterms have historically created problems for the president’s party, as voters can use the election to check the White House without removing its occupant.
This year’s map suggests that backlash may extend beyond the House and threaten Republicans’ fragile 53–47 Senate majority.
What To Know
The following details were checked by Newsweek at 7 a.m. ET on Friday, October 23. Silver Bulletin updated its model on October 22 and projected an average Senate division of 52 Democrats to 48 Republicans.
VoteHub gives Democrats a 60 percent chance of controlling the Senate and projects a 52-48 chamber. Decision Desk HQ puts the Democratic probability at 57 percent, with 51 seats, after running 1 million simulations.
Polling averages, such as that on RealClearPolling, measure current voter preference; forecasts add factors such as incumbency, political fundamentals, markets and uncertainty.
Alaska
Mary Peltola, a former congresswoman and the first Alaska Native to serve in Congress, is running in an unusual ranked-choice contest that also features a second Republican candidate named Dan Sullivan, something Trump said he was “very concerned” about in a Truth Social post this week.
Peltola leads incumbent Republican senator Sullivan by 3.5 points in Silver Bulletin, 48.1 percent to 44.6 percent.
RealClearPolling shows a narrower Peltola advantage of 1.2 points, based on surveys conducted from September 28 through October 16.
Decision Desk HQ gives Democrats a 61 percent probability and calls the race Lean Democratic.
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Iowa
Democrat Josh Turek holds a 1.2-point Silver Bulletin edge over Republican U.S. Representative Ashley Hinson, 46.8 percent to 45.6 percent.
Turek is a two-time Paralympic wheelchair-basketball gold medalist, while Hinson worked as a television news reporter before entering politics.
Other indicators underline the uncertainty: VoteHub has Turek ahead by only 0.3 points, whereas Decision Desk HQ projects Hinson to win by one point despite placing the contest in its toss-up category.
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Kansas
Democrat Adam Hamilton leads Republican Senator Roger Marshall by 1.1 points in Silver Bulletin, with neither candidate reaching 47 percent.
Hamilton, the founder of a Methodist megachurch, has pitched himself as an independent-minded moderate in a state that has not elected a Democratic senator for nearly a century.
RealClearPolling instead gives Marshall a 0.3-point advantage, illustrating how a small change in methodology or included surveys can reverse the leader.
Decision Desk HQ rates Kansas Lean Republican and gives the GOP a 65 percent chance.
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Ohio
Former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown has a 3.7-point Silver Bulletin lead over Republican Senator Jon Husted, 48.1 percent to 44.4 percent.
The special election gives Brown a route back to the Senate two years after his defeat, while appointed incumbent Husted is seeking voter approval to complete the term originally won by JD Vance.
VoteHub finds a slightly wider 4.3-point margin, but Decision Desk HQ remains more cautious, giving Brown a 57 percent probability.
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Maine
Democrat Troy Jackson stands at 49.6 percent against Republican Senator Susan Collins’ 46.8 percent in Silver Bulletin, putting Jackson 2.8 points ahead.
Jackson, a fifth-generation logger and former state Senate president, who entered the race as a replacement nominee after Graham Platner dropped out over allegations of sexual misconduct that he denies, is challenging Collins as the Republican seeks a sixth term.
The RealClearPolling average cuts that gap to 1.4 points, while Decision Desk HQ assigns Democrats a 56 percent chance.
Collins’ continued competitiveness leaves Maine among the model’s four true toss-ups.
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Michigan
Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leads Republican Mike Rogers by three points in Silver Bulletin, 48.4 percent to 45.4 percent.
El-Sayed, a former Detroit health director with medical and public-health doctorates, faces former FBI agent and House Intelligence Committee chair Rogers.
VoteHub produces an almost identical 2.9-point gap.
RealClearPolling has El-Sayed ahead by 2, while Decision Desk HQ is more confident in the Democrat, giving the party a 68 percent probability.
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South Carolina
Late Republican Senator Lindsey Graham’s sister Darline leads Democrat Annie Andrews by 1.7 points in Silver Bulletin, 47 percent to 45.3 percent.
Public polling is thinner here than elsewhere on the list, adding uncertainty to the average.
Decision Desk HQ nevertheless gives Graham, the appointed successor of the late Senator, a 70 percent chance and categorizes the race as Lean Republican.
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Texas
Democrat James Talarico is 2.4 points ahead of Republican Ken Paxton in Silver Bulletin, 48.7 percent to 46.2 percent.
The contest pairs Talarico, a former public-school teacher, Presbyterian seminarian and state representative, with Paxton, the state attorney general who defeated incumbent Senator John Cornyn in the Republican runoff and was impeached by the state House in 2023 over allegations that he misused his office to help donor Nate Paul, before the state Senate acquitted him.
VoteHub places the margin at 2.5 points and RealClearPolling at 1.5. Decision Desk HQ gives Talarico a 57 percent probability, making Texas a toss-up rather than a secure Democratic gain.
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What Happens Next
No single average represents a prediction of the final result.
With 10 days remaining, small polling errors, turnout differences or late movement could still change both the individual winners and the party controlling the Senate.
Election Day is November 3.
Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Alfred Joyner, Gray R. Thomas
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