Will Gavin Newsom Lose the California Recall Election? What Bookmakers Predict

Bookmakers are backing California Governor Gavin Newsom to win the recall election as the Democrat's position continues to strengthen.

According to bookmakers, the Democrats are odds-on favorites to survive the recall election tomorrow with Republicans appearing to have failed to capitalize on Newsom's unpopular handling of the pandemic.

In its latest odds on Monday, British bookmaker Betfair put Newsom not to be recalled at 1-8 while the odds of him being successfully recalled stand at 4-1.

Paddy Power, an Irish bookmaker, had the recall being successful at 8-1and 1-16 for it to fail.

A spokesperson for Paddy Power told Newsweek: "It's looking increasingly unlikely that Governor Newsom will face the wrath of voters in terms of a recall.

"He has taken lots of heat over his handling (and behavior) throughout the course of the pandemic, but Democratic members have rallied the troops and indications are that early voting ballots are predominantly from the Democrats over Republicans in what has always been a hugely traditional 'blue' state."

While political betting in the U.S. is illegal, it remains popular in Europe and elsewhere around the globe.

Today's odds from the European bookies have fallen in line with American polling, which favors Newsom over his opponents.

A Spectrum News/ Ipsos poll shared on Wednesday showed Newsom enjoyed a 58 percent favorability among registered voters.

His closest challenger, Republican conservative talk radio host Larry Elder, was viewed favorably in the same survey.

A YouGov poll, also released on Wednesday, showed an estimated 57 percent of likely voters wanted to keep Newsom in office.

Republican challenger Elder trailed Newsom by 22 points when respondents were asked who out of the two candidates they preferred.

For Elder to have a chance at being elected, 50 percent of voters will have to choose to have him recalled.

Should that threshold end up not being reached, Newsom will continue in his current position.

But, if 50 percent of voters want to remove Newsom, the replacement ballot will come into effect, where the candidate who wins the most votes on that sheet will be declared the next governor.

The previous California recall election ended in the Republican's favor when action movie star-turned-politician Arnold Schwarzenegger beat Democrat Governor Gray Davis.

Schwarzenegger remained in office between 2003 and 2011.