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By Theo Burman
Live News Reporter
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Former President Donald Trump has spent a large amount of time campaigning in Wisconsin, a Midwestern swing state that could be decisive this election.
The Republican nominee has visited the Badger State four times in just eight days, flying in for rallies in between visits to Pennsylvania and North Carolina.
Along with Michigan and Pennsylvania, these three states make up the core of the swing states, and keeping them blue after President Joe Biden's 2020 victory is currently Vice President Kamala Harris' surest path to 270 Electoral College votes.
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"They say that Wisconsin is probably the toughest of the swing states to win," Trump said at his rally in Juneau on Sunday. "If we win Wisconsin, we win the presidency."
Trump could win Nevada, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, but if he doesn't take back at least one state in the so-called Rust Belt, he is stuck on a maximum of 268 Electoral College votes.
Since the 1988 election, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania have all voted for the same presidential candidate. In 2016, they backed Trump, only to switch back to their "Blue Wall" roots in 2020 when their combined total of 46 Electoral College votes went to Biden. These states now total 44 Electoral College votes after Michigan and Pennsylvania lost one each.
In data of the most common campaign stops mapped by Newsweek, Wisconsin was one of the most commonly visited states since August, alongside Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Both the presidential candidates and their running mates have made frequent visits across the Midwest, and both vice presidential candidates are from states in the same region that are safe for each party; Minnesota for Democratic Governor Tim Walz, and Ohio for Republican Senator JD Vance.
Who Is Ahead in Wisconsin?
Harris currently holds a small lead in Wisconsin; the 538 polling aggregate gives her a 1.6 percent edge. This is one of her largest leads out of all of the swing states, but it is still well within the margin of error, and it has declined in recent days.
The vice president has also made maintaining her lead in Wisconsin a priority, with visits scheduled in Milwaulkee over October. Last week, the Democratic nominee joined former Republican Congresswoman Liz Cheney for an event in Ripon, considered "the birthplace of the GOP."
Could Wisconsin Be the Tipping Point State?
In the 2020 election, Pennsylvania was the tipping point state, pushing Biden over the 270-vote threshold after he already secured Michigan and Wisconsin.
Currently, 538 predicts that Pennsylvania will be the tipping point state again. The forecast site also predicts that North Carolina or Nevada could play a similar role. Wisconsin is also considered, but as it is currently one of the swing states with a larger lead for Harris, it is less likely to be the tipping point.
Newsweek contacted the Trump campaign for comment via email.
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