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By Matt Modi
Sports Betting Writer
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This is an interesting matchup tonight between the Yankees and the Phillies, as both of these teams have legitimate World Series aspirations, but both are in the middle of slumps.
The Yankees have been one of the worst teams in baseball since June rolled around and are 11-19 in their last 30 games. The Phillies have lost all four series since returning from the All-Star break, and they're 3-7 in their last 10.
Both teams are in desperate need of a run, but that will only happen for one of them in this series. This will be a home series for the Phillies, with the first game starting tonight at 6:40 p.m. ET. MLB Network and Prime Video will have the broadcast.
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Luis Gil Under 2.5 Earned Runs (-105) DraftKings
For this game tonight, backing Gil to shut down the Phillies' bats is the way to go. Gil was looking like a possible Cy Young candidate the first two months of the season, but he went on a five-start blip that took him out of the running. Since then, he has been very good, and it appears as though he is reverting back to form.
In his first 12 starts of the year, Gil had an 8-1 record, with a 1.82 ERA. He was essentially shutting down every offense he came up against, allowing an average of .128 and only four home runs in those 12 starts. Then, in a five-game stretch from June 9 through July 2, he allowed four home runs with an 8.85 ERA, getting rocked in four of those five starts. He has been very good in the three starts since, and against the cold Phillies bats, the guess here is that he allows two or fewer runs.
Over the past two weeks against right-handed pitching, the Phillies have the sixth-worst wRC+, sixth-worst wOBA, sixth-worst wRAA, sixth-worst OPS and the seventh-worst slugging. They still have the best record in MLB, though, and even the best teams go through these types of stretches, but there is no denying the rut that the Phillies are in. With Gil looking like did at the beginning of the season, it is tough to expect him to allow a ton of runs, so we're backing Gil to pitch a good game.
Juan Soto (+280) to Hit a Home Run (FanDuel), Jazz Chisholm to Hit a Home Run (+440) FanDuel
In terms of batter props, we like backing the two lefties to have a good game against Zack Wheeler. They are both worth sprinkling a little lettuce to hit a home run. At these odds, if either one homers, then we are enjoying a profitable day. Wheeler is an ace pitcher, but he has concerning splits against left-handed hitters, and both Soto and Chisholm have great matchups against Wheeler.
The lefty vs. righty splits for Wheeler are significant, as eight of his 11 home runs allowed have come against lefties. His average goes from .153 against RHH to .219 against LHH, his slugging goes from .217 to .388, wOBA goes from .195 to .304, and xFIP goes from 2.67 to 4.21. Both his fly-ball rate and his HardHit rate also jump 12% from RHH to LHH.
This is also a good pitch-mix for Soto, as Wheeler throws a 4-seam fastball 41% of the time, and Soto has an ISO rate of .468 against FBs. Wheeler also throws a sinker 18% of the time, to which Soto has a .382 ISO rate against. As for Chisholm, he has a double and a triple against Wheeler this season, and last year he smacked him for a home run, so here's hoping he stays hot.
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