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By Rachael O'Connor
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Young adults are no longer smoking cigarettes, and this choice could have a major effect on future cancer rates in the United States, a new study has suggested.
Cigarette smoking is the leading cause of preventable death in the U.S., killing more than 480,000 Americans each year, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
In 2022, an estimated 11.6 percent of U.S. adults were current smokers, according to a CDC report at the time. However, this is on a continuous downward spiral.
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The American Lung Association reports that 42.4 percent of U.S. adults smoked in 1965, with the 2022 rates representing a reduction of 73 percent. Likewise, youth smoking rates have fallen from 36.4 percent in 1997, to just 3.8 percent in 2021.
Now, a new study from MUSC Hollings Cancer Center suggests that younger adults, who are moving from cigarettes to e-cigarettes and vapes, may change the future of cancer rates in the country.
Published in JNCI Cancer Spectrum, the study looked at how cigarettes are responsible for the majority of cancer deaths, and how the type of tobacco products a person uses is becoming increasingly important for predicting future tobacco-related cancer.
Lead author K. Michael Cummings told Newsweek that their study reflects "some positive trends in reduced use of combustible tobacco use," particularly among younger adults, and that "we should be looking at substantially fewer smoking-related cancers several decades from now."
"On a population-wide basis, the overall pattern of tobacco use is very good," he said.
Previous studies have shown that electronic cigarette smokers are exposed to far fewer cancer-causing chemicals, and their new research tracked tobacco use while distinguishing between combustible products like cigarettes and pipes, and noncombustible products like nicotine pouches and electronic cigarettes.
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The new analysis started on data from 2015, where electronic cigarette usage began rising in popularity, and found that exclusive combustible tobacco use declined across nearly every age group, in particular for young adults aged between 18 and 34.
In order to predict whether tobacco use was becoming generally less harmful, the researchers looked at how the population was getting their tobacco—and found that among young adults, exclusive noncombustible use was rapidly replacing combustible tobacco use, which is a positive development.
The researchers now believe that, because combustible tobacco use is the cause of up to a third of cancer deaths—and 90 percent of lung cancer deaths—this shift away from cigarettes will reshape the cancer rates in the future.
However, the full impact will not be visible for decades.
Cummings said it was notable that most people didn't appear to be using both combustible and noncombustible tobacco products, and were more often choosing the noncombustible and less dangerous types.
However, adults aged 55 and older were most likely to remain smoking combustible tobacco products.
Cummings said in a statement to MedicalXpress that the relatively slow decline in cigarette use among older and middle-aged adults suggests that we are "failing older people who smoke cigarettes."
"These are people with decades of smoking behind them, and they're not changing to lower-risk noncombustible tobacco products as much as younger adults. They're the group that stands to gain the most immediate health benefits from the elimination of smoked tobacco," he said.
He told Newsweek that his next study will focus on the daily and non-daily use of cigarettes and electronic cigarettes, which is so far showing "some interesting patterns with accelerated declines in daily cigarette use, especially among younger adults."
Reference
Kenneth Michael Cummings, Avery Roberson, Colin W Randol, Tracy T Smith, David T Levy, Yoonseo Mok, Steve Cook, Rafael Meza, Trends in adult exclusive and dual use of combustible and non-combustible tobacco products in the United States, JNCI Cancer Spectrum, Volume 10, Issue 4, August 2026, pkag062, https://doi.org/10.1093/jncics/pkag062
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Kara Dolman and Emma Lee-Sang
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