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By Andrew Stanton
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Ukrainian President Zelensky may have some red lines on concessions as he considers negotiations to reach an end to the Russia-Ukraine war, analysts told Newsweek.
Why It Matters
Zelensky met with President Donald Trump and other European leaders at the White House on Monday to discuss potential peace talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who launched the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. World leaders have for years sought to reach a deal to end the bloody conflict, but Zelensky and Putin have remained divided on key points to reach a ceasefire to end the conflict.
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What To Know
Security guarantees from the West, Ukrainian membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and territorial issues are among the key obstacles to a peace deal. Putin has pushed for maximalist concessions from Ukraine, including Russian control of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions and no NATO membership for Ukraine.
Those terms, however, would be difficult for Zelensky to accept. While Ukrainian support for continuing the war has dropped, according to some polls, Ukrainian leadership is unlikely to end the war under Putin's conditions, foreign policy analysts told Newsweek.
Matthew Pauly, a historian at Michigan State University, told Newsweek that Zelensky may "concede temporary Russian control of occupied Ukrainian land, including Crimea," but that he "will not and cannot accede to the legal recognition of Russian annexation."
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"Any proposal for a 'land swap' is a misnomer," he said. "Russia is not proposing giving up Russian land, but rather Ukrainian land that it illegally occupies. It is demanding gains that it has not achieved on the battlefield. As Zelensky quite rightly argues, Russia seeks to deceptively secure through negotiations what it has been unsuccessful in gaining on the battlefield over the course of twelve years."
When it comes to security guarantees, the details are critical, Pauly said.
"A security guarantee 'like NATO' sounds good, but the devil is in the details. Why not just be granted NATO membership then?" he said.
NATO membership and maintaining Ukrainian land are at the "core of Ukraine's right to self-determination and sovereignty as a nation" and are unlikely to be concessions Zelensky is willing to make, Mai'a Cross, an international affairs professor at Northeastern University, told Newsweek.
"While Ukraine may not join NATO any time soon, especially while the war is still ongoing, it will want to leave this option open down the road, as it should. This is also in the interest of the EU who will want to ensure that Russia does not threaten Ukraine again if there is eventually an end to this war," she said.
What Concessions Would Ukrainians Support?
Zelensky remains popular at home and has to "balance various sides" as he works to bring the war to a close, Dani Belo, director of the Global Policy Horizons Research Lab at Webster University, told Newsweek.
While the U.S. wants to reach a ceasefire "as soon as possible," European nations would like to maintain deterrence against Moscow, he said.
"Concurrently, from Kyiv's perspective, maintaining the military campaign against Russia comes at the cost of Ukrainians' lives, the economy, and democracy. Nobody knows what Zelensky will choose, but he will have to consider these interests," Belo said.
Pauly said most Ukrainians may be able to accept "the temporary loss of Ukrainian land" but not Ukrainian sovereignty.
"Ukraine has built up a network of defenses on land in the eastern part of the country that Russia is now demanding. Forfeiture of this land would expose Ukraine in the same way Czechoslovakia was fatally harmed by the handing over of the Sudetenland to Nazi Germany in 1938," he said.
Robert B. Murrett, professor of practice of international affairs at Syracuse University, told Newsweek many Ukrainians feel "resentment" and "fury" over the war, and that the Ukrainian public would likely not be willing to accept forfeiting NATO membership or land from the Donetsk or Luhansk regions.
Crimea, however, "was never in the cards for being returned to Ukraine," he said. Still, Zelensky admitting that could be a mistake as "you don't want to give up your negotiating positions before you actually negotiate," he said.
What People Are Saying
Historian Matthew Pauly told Newsweek: "It is imperative that the burden of surrender does not fall on the victim when the aggressor demonstrates no significant concessions. Russia's insistence on a peace agreement rather than a ceasefire appears to be a strategic maneuver designed to prolong hostilities and allow Russia to continue bombing Ukrainian cities."
Mark Storella, former ambassador to Zambia and professor of diplomacy at Boston University, told Newsweek: "The fundamental issue everyone is wrestling with is whether Putin wants peace on any terms short of his maximalist demands to swallow big chunks of Ukraine territory and turn Ukraine into a vassal state of Russia. Unless Russia is losing on the battlefield or it's economy is crumbling, Russia will accept peace only if it gets Putin's demands or if Putin sees it as a step toward eventual complete capitulation by Ukraine over time."
What Happens Next
Trump is pushing for a meeting between Zelensky and Putin to discuss peace talks. Whether either side is willing to make some concessions, or whether the war will continue for the near future, is yet to be seen.
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