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By Brendan Cole
Senior Reporter
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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has warned about the threat posed by Belarus, whose autocratic leader, Alexander Lukashenko, is Russian President Vladimir Putin's closest ally.
"Ask your intelligence what Russia is planning this summer in Belarus," Zelensky told reporters in Vilnius, Lithuania, on Monday.
His comment follows the ruling regime in Minsk announcing that joint Zapad-2025 strategic military exercises with Russia will be held further inland in Belarus.
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Franak Viačorka, chief political adviser to Sviatlana Tsihanouskaya, who leads the Belarusian opposition to Lukashenko's authoritarian rule, told Newsweek on Tuesday that the drills include "hostile scenarios" against the West.
Newsweek has contacted the Russian and Belarusian foreign ministries for comment.
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Why It Matters
Lukashenko has not directly joined Putin in the war against Ukraine but, as the Russian leader's closest ally, has permitted Moscow's forces to use Belarusian territory for attacks since 2022.
Zelensky's warning will add to concerns that Putin's control of Lukashenko could see Belarus again used as a staging post for attacks on Ukraine, which would increase the risk to NATO's eastern border.
What To Know
Zelensky called on allies to seek intelligence on Minsk's plans during the Zapad joint military exercises scheduled for September.
He said Monday that if Russia and Belarus are "bold enough to prepare attacks from there, then we need more strength together."
Zelensky previously warned that Russian troop training in Belarus could mark "the beginning of a full-scale invasion, similar to the one we saw in 2022," posing risks to Ukraine and neighboring NATO states.
Held every two years since 2009, no Zapad exercise took place in 2023. Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin announced that September's exercises would be relocated further inland within Belarus to "reduce tensions." But the drills are seen by analysts and Ukrainian officials as potential cover for Russian troop deployments.
Viačorka took part in Zapad drills as part of mandatory service a decade and a half ago in Lukashenko's army as punishment for his opposition political activities.
He told Newsweek that the drills consisted of anti-Western and pro-Russian military training, including scenarios such as dropping a nuclear bomb over Warsaw.
"These are hostile scenarios. They do it primarily to threaten. It's a part of psychological informational warfare," he said on Tuesday, adding that they pose a threat to Poland and Lithuania, as well as Ukraine.
The International Strategic Action Network for Security (iSANS), which monitors activity in Belarus, told Newsweek that, as of June, a new ground operation from Belarusian territory is unlikely and there are no signs of preparations, but it's impossible to reliably predict how the situation will develop.
It said Russian armed forces continue to be stationed at Mazyr (Bokau) and Ziabrauka (Zyabrovka) airfields, where there are anti-aircraft missile divisions of the 1530th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment.
There is a theoretical possibility of using Belarusian airspace and territory to launch missile strikes against Ukraine, although no such strikes have taken place since October 2022.
The second half of the academic year has begun in the Belarusian army, which means an increase in the intensity of combat training, culminating in the Zapad-2025 drills, iSANS added.
In 2023, Ukraine's foreign ministry raised the alarm over a buildup of Belarusian and Russian troops near Gomel, close to Ukraine's border.
Since then, there have been other warnings from Ukraine's foreign ministry about the threat Belarus poses, such as in August 2024 that any border violation would prompt a self-defense response from Ukraine in line with the U.N. Charter.
Putin and Lukashenko's alliance has deepened during the war. Analysts say Belarus is becoming Russia's "militarized satellite." The Institute for the Study of War said in December 2024 that the Kremlin is "advancing toward a de facto annexation of Belarus" with a defense pact and integration of military and economic systems.
For Moscow, Belarus strengthens its position on NATO's eastern flank, with implications for U.S. and European security.
What People Are Saying
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky: "Ask your intelligence what Russia is planning this summer in Belarus. If they are bold enough to prepare attacks from there, then we need more strength together."
Belarusian opposition politician Franak Viačorka told Newsweek: [Zapad will include] "tests of nuclear facilities, tests of possible escalation. This is a reminder to all Western politicians who still believe they can appease Lukashenko or Putin—it's impossible—you cannot change these guys."
The International Strategic Action Network for Security (iSANS) told Newsweek: "As for the likelihood of Russia launching a new ground operation from Belarusian territory, at this point it's unlikely and there are no signs of preparations, but it's important to monitor developments in Belarus."
The Ukrainian Foreign Affairs Ministry in August 2024: "Any violation of Ukraine's border by the regime in Minsk would provoke a self-defense response 'guaranteed by the U.N. Charter.'"
The Institute for the Study of War in January 2025: [The Kremlin is] "advancing toward a de facto annexation of Belarus," presenting new threats to the West.
What Happens Next
NATO allies are increasing intelligence sharing ahead of Zapad 2025. Tarassis 25—a Joint Expeditionary Force Northern European exercise that will be the largest since the multinational force was established, will be held at the same time.
Update 6/3/25, 1:18 p.m. ET: This article has been updated with comment from iSANS.
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