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By James Bickerton
News Reporter
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Zohran Mamdani would lose the New York mayoral election to former state governor Andrew Cuomo if three other candidates drop out of the race, according to a new poll conducted by Tulchin Research.
Newsweek contacted Assemblyman Mamdani and Cuomo for comment on Thursday outside of regular office hours via email.
Why It Matters
Mamdani, a self-styled "democratic socialist," caused a national sensation in June when he defeated ex-New York state governor Cuomo in the Democratic primary to become the party's candidate in the 2025 New York mayoral election.
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Since then a number of polls have indicated Mamdani enjoyed a comfortable lead over Cuomo, his closest challenger. However the Tulchin Research survey indicates Mamdani could be in trouble if other candidates drop out of the race and he faces Cuomo in a head-to-head battle.
What To Know
A Tulchin Research survey of 1,000 likely New York voters, conducted over August 7 to 14, found Mamdani would lose the New York mayoral election to Cuomo in a head-to-head fight by 41 percent of the vote against 52 percent.
However if faced with a full slate, with Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa and independent candidates Eric Adams, the incumbent mayor, and Jim Walden, Mamdani would win with 42 percent of the vote to Cuomo's 26 percent.
In this scenario they would be followed by Sliwa on 17 percent, Adams with nine percent and Walden on three percent.
The poll also found in a straight contest Mamdani would only beat Adams, who was elected as a Democrat in 2021 but is now running as an independent, narrowly with 45 percent of the vote against 42 percent. The survey was conducted by phone and online survey and had a 3.1 percent margin of error.
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An American Pulse Research & Polling survey of 638 likely New York voters, conducted over August 14 to 19, had Mamdani as the favorite with 36.9 percent of the vote. He was followed by Cuomo with 24.6 percent, Silwa on 16.8 percent and Adams with 11.4 percent. The poll had a margin of error of 3.9 percent.
Separately an AARP poll of 1,376 registered New York City voters, conducted on August 11, gave Mamdani 42 percent ahead of Cuomo with 23 percent. They were followed by Sliwa with 17 percent and Walden on 1.4 percent. The survey had a 3.2 percent margin of error.
The Department of Justice is currently investigating Cuomo in response to comment he made during a September 2024 congressional hearing over his March 2020 directive instructing nursing homes to receive COVID-19 patients. His spokesperson Rich Azzopardi described the move as "lawfare and election interference."
Cuomo resigned as New York State governor in 2021 following allegations he sexually harassed a number of women. Cuomo said some of his "interactions may have been insensitive or too personal" but denied sexual assault, and a criminal case against him was dropped in January 2022.
Adams had been facing federal corruption charges but these were dropped by the Trump administration. He denied any wrongdoing.
What People Are Saying
In a statement provided to CBS News a Mamdani spokesperson said: "Everybody knows that Andrew Cuomo is Donald Trump's choice candidate for mayor - they share the same billionaire donors, colluded on the race, and Trump himself said the two have 'always gotten along.' Trump knows Cuomo will aid and abet in his authoritarian spirals, serve billionaires and corporations instead of everyday New Yorkers, and continue the corruption that is dragging our city backward."
Asked about the new survey by reporters Cuomo replied: "That poll is right."
What Happens Next
The New York mayoral election will take place on November 4 2025. Currently none of the other candidates have indicated they could stand aside to give Cuomo a free run against Mamdani.
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