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By Jason Lemon
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Michigan Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed is facing renewed criticism over his appeal to Black voters just days before the midterm election, raising questions about whether he can maintain a crucial part of the Democratic coalition in one of the country's most consequential Senate races.
The stakes may extend well beyond Michigan. With Democrats needing a net gain of four seats to reclaim control of the Senate, the party cannot afford to lose the seat being vacated by retiring Senator Gary Peters. Black voters have historically been essential to Democratic victories in the midwestern battleground state, and even a modest decline in their turnout or support could prove decisive. For El-Sayed, the challenge is not only defeating Republican Mike Rogers, but also uniting a Democratic coalition that remains divided following a contentious primary.
What the Data Shows About Michigan's Black Voters
Recent polling suggests El-Sayed has substantial Black voter support, even if his numbers remain below those achieved by prominent Democrats in previous Michigan elections.
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A Data for Progress poll conducted October 23–25 found that 82 percent of Black likely voters supported El-Sayed, compared with 15 percent backing Republican Mike Rogers.
That compares with the 87 percent of Black Michigan voters who supported Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election, according to CNN exit polling. Democratic Senator Elissa Slotkin received 85 percent of the Black vote in her successful 2024 campaign against Rogers. While Harris lost at the top of the ticket, Slotkin narrowly won her race despite the slightly lower Black support.
Four years earlier, Joe Biden secured 92 percent of Black voters in Michigan during his successful presidential campaign, while Democratic Senator Gary Peters received 90 percent in his narrow reelection victory against Republican John James, according to Edison Research exit polling published by The Washington Post.
The comparisons suggest El-Sayed could receive a smaller share of Black votes than Democrats in recent statewide elections. However, the Data for Progress poll also found El-Sayed performing slightly better among Black voters than Democratic gubernatorial nominee Jocelyn Benson, who received 79 percent support.
Abdul El-Sayed's Black Voter Support Compared to Other Democrats in Michigan
Share of Black voters supporting each candidate
Joe Biden (2020)92%
Gary Peters (2020)90%
Kamala Harris (2024)87%
Elissa Slotkin (2024)85%
Abdul El-Sayed (2026)82%
Sources: Michigan election exit polls (2020, 2024); Data for Progress (October 2026). El-Sayed's 82% is pre-election polling, not a final election result. His Black-voter subgroup comprised 67 weighted respondents.
Why Black Voters Matter in Michigan
Approximately 1.4 million Michigan residents are Black, representing 13.9 percent of the state's population of roughly 10.1 million, according to Michigan's official 2025 population estimates.
Black voters have historically formed a critical part of the Democratic coalition, particularly in Detroit and surrounding Wayne County, as well as cities including Flint, Pontiac and Saginaw. Their turnout can be decisive in a state that frequently produces extremely close elections.
Trump carried Michigan by approximately 10,700 votes in 2016, before Biden flipped the state by roughly 154,000 votes in 2020. Trump reclaimed Michigan in 2024, defeating Harris by approximately 80,000 votes.
Black voters represented roughly 11 percent of Michigan's electorate in 2024, according to exit polling. Even relatively small changes in turnout or partisan preferences among this demographic could influence a close statewide race.
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Democratic Divisions Over El-Sayed
El-Sayed's relationship with Black voters has attracted scrutiny since his narrow victory over Representative Haley Stevens in Michigan's August Democratic Senate primary. Stevens performed particularly well among Black voters and won Wayne County, which includes Detroit, by approximately 51 percent to El-Sayed's 45 percent.
Speaking to CNN last Sunday, Stevens said she had encouraged El-Sayed to deliver a speech directly addressing concerns among Black voters, but that it had not happened. Stevens has repeatedly said she intends to vote for El-Sayed, although tensions between the former rivals have continued over his positions on Israel and campaign messaging.
Some Democratic leaders have expressed concern that voters who supported Stevens in the primary might be less enthusiastic about participating in November.
El-Sayed, a former Detroit health director and progressive backed by Senator Bernie Sanders, has emphasized healthcare affordability, economic inequality and opposition to Trump's agenda. He has also sought support from prominent Black Democrats.
Former President Barack Obama campaigned alongside him in Detroit on October 24, while Harris joined El-Sayed for a discussion focused on Black maternal healthcare. Georgia Senator Raphael Warnock and other prominent Black Democratic figures have also supported his campaign efforts.
El-Sayed has spent much of the closing stretch campaigning in Detroit and other communities with substantial Black populations, while his campaign has emphasized healthcare access and economic opportunities.
Rogers has likewise targeted Black voters, highlighting proposals addressing housing construction, employment opportunities and food access in Detroit.
El-Sayed has dismissed suggestions that Rogers can make substantial inroads with these voters, arguing that the Republican would support Trump's policies in Washington.
Michigan Senate Race: El-Sayed vs. Rogers
Likely voter support | October 2026
Abdul El-Sayed (D) Mike Rogers (R)
CNN / SSRS Oct. 20–27
D
49%
R
42%
El-Sayed +7
Data for Progress Oct. 23–25
D
50%
R
46%
El-Sayed +4
Marist Oct. 15–18
D
50%
R
48%
El-Sayed +2
Sources: CNN/SSRS, Data for Progress and Marist Poll. Likely voters, October 2026. Figures rounded.
What the Latest Michigan Senate Polls Show
Despite the concerns about Black voter enthusiasm, all three recent major polls show El-Sayed leading Rogers statewide.
A CNN/SSRS survey conducted October 20–27 found El-Sayed ahead by seven points, 49 percent to 42 percent, among likely voters.
Data for Progress found El-Sayed leading 50 percent to 46 percent in its October 23–25 survey.
A Marist poll conducted October 15–18 showed a narrower contest, with El-Sayed receiving 50 percent support to Rogers' 48 percent among likely voters.
The differences highlight uncertainty about the size of El-Sayed's advantage, although all three surveys place him in the lead.
CNN also found that 95 percent of Democratic likely voters supported El-Sayed, suggesting the party's electorate had largely consolidated behind its nominee following the divisive primary.
Why Michigan Could Decide Senate Control
Democrats need a net gain of four Senate seats to reclaim the chamber in November's elections.
Michigan is currently represented by Peters, a Democrat who is retiring. Losing his seat would force Democrats to compensate by winning an additional Republican-held seat, complicating their path to a majority.
Democratic opportunities elsewhere, including Maine, Texas, Ohio, Iowa and Kansas, have become more competitive amid dissatisfaction with Trump, but those races remain uncertain. For El-Sayed, the immediate challenge is ensuring that voters who traditionally support Democrats turn out in sufficient numbers.
His recent polling suggests he retains overwhelming support among Black voters. Whether that support translates into the turnout necessary to win Michigan could help determine not only his political future, but which party controls the Senate.
Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here.
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