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Andrew Stanton

By Andrew Stanton

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President Donald Trump was dealt a victory after his endorsed candidate Anthony DiLorenzo won the Republican primary in New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District on Tuesday.

DiLorenzo defeated Hollie Noveletsky, who served as the former vice chair of the New Hampshire Republican Party. He received 51.5 percent of the vote to Noveletsky’s 26.8 percent, according to The Associated Press, which called the race at 8 p.m. ET on Tuesday.

Trump’s endorsement has remained powerful in recent Republican primaries, but his support doesn't necessarily guarantee a candidate will win. In some recent primaries, other Republicans defeated Trump-backed candidates.

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DiLorenzo’s victory is the latest sign of Trump’s ongoing popularity among GOP voters. It comes after a recent poll from the University of New Hampshire gave a warning sign about DiLorenzo’s chances, showing Noveletsky with a 3-point lead, 28 percent to 25 percent. It had surveyed 443 Republican voters from August 20 to 24, 2026.

Donald Trump’s Endorsement Record

Trump endorsed DiLorenzo, a local businessman, on Truth Social on July 13, praising him as a “very successful Businessman and Entrepreneur.”

“It is my Great Honor to endorse America First Patriot, Anthony DiLorenzo, who is running to represent the fantastic people of New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District!” he wrote at the time.

Trump has endorsed hundreds of candidates across the country ahead of the midterms, with Ballotpedia giving him a 96 percent success rate in primaries this year.

Some of his endorsed candidates have lost to other Republicans. In Tennessee’s 5th Congressional District, for instance, Representative Andy Ogles, backed by Trump, lost to Charlie Hatcher, the state’s former commissioner of agriculture who was endorsed by Governor Bill Lee.

President Donald Trump in the Oval Office of the White House on August 31, 2026.

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In Florida’s 19th District, Trump-backed Catalina Lauf also lost her primary to Jim Schwartzel in the race to succeed Representative Byron Donalds, who is running for governor.

Trump’s preferred candidate in Michigan’s 8th District, Amir Hassan, also lost his primary to rival Thomas J. Smith, a Republican who suspended his campaign and endorsed another candidate prior to the election.

Several Trump-backed gubernatorial candidates have lost their primaries, including Lieutenant Governor Burt Jones in Georgia, Representative Randy Feenstra in Iowa, Mike Lindell in Minnesota, Lieutenant Governor Pamela Evette in South Carolina and Megan Degenfelder in Wyoming.

Trump’s endorsement record has been bolstered by his enduring popularity among the Republican primary electorate. His national approval rating has plummeted since his return to the Oval Office, but Republicans continue to support his administration, according to recent polls.

The latest poll from YouGov and The Economist showed that Trump’s overall net approval stood at -24 points, 36 percent approving and 60 percent disapproving. Among Republicans, his net approval rating was +62 points, 80 percent approving and 18 percent disapproving. The survey included 1,592 adults and ran from August 28 to 31, 2026.

Republicans’ Chances of Flipping NH-01

Polling on the district has not been made public, but prediction markets favor Democrats to hold the seat, which is currently held by Democratic Representative Chris Pappas, who is running for Senate in the Granite State. As of Tuesday, Kalshi gave Democrats an 88 percent chance of victory, while Polymarket placed Democrats’ chances at 89 percent.

The district backed former Vice President Kamala Harris by over 2 points in the 2024 election, so it is competitive on paper. But Democrats believe the national environment, driven by Trump’s declining national approval rating, should keep the seat in their hands in November.

Republicans, however, are hoping that the so-called blue wave won’t sweep New Hampshire, as polls show GOP Governor Kelly Ayotte favored to win reelection, and an increasingly competitive Senate race.

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New Hampshire’s 1st District is generally the more competitive of the two districts and comprises the eastern parts of the state.

Democrats typically win large margins in places like Portsmouth and Dover. It also includes Manchester, which leans Democratic but not overwhelmingly; Harris won the city by fewer than 8 points. Democrats also do well in the tourist areas near the White Mountains.

Republicans, however, do better in suburban areas outside Manchester in southern New Hampshire, as well as in towns in the Lakes Region, keeping the seat competitive in recent elections.

Pappas had won reelection by wider margins in recent cycles, winning by 8 points in 2024. He also defeated Karoline Leavitt, who would go on to become White House press secretary, by about 8 points in 2022. He has represented the swing district since 2019.

Forecasters give Democrats an advantage. The Cook Political Report considers the race Likely Democrat, while Sabato’s Crystal Ball rates it Leans Democratic.

Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jenni Fink, Sam Wilson, Gray R. Thomas

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