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By Andrew Stanton
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Trump-endorsed Republican Representative Andy Ogles lost his primary challenge in Tennessee Thursday night against Charlie Hatcher, the state’s former commissioner of agriculture who had been endorsed by Governor Bill Lee.
The race was called by the Associated Press for Hatcher at 10:10 p.m. Shortly after, Ogles had 46.7 percent of the vote compared to Hatcher's 53.3 percent, with 81 percent of the votes counted.
Tennessee’s congressional map was redrawn ahead of this year’s midterm elections as Republicans sought to eliminate a Democratic-held seat based around Memphis that was previously protected by the Voting Rights Act, which was weakened by the U.S. Supreme Court this year. Ogles’ district shifted significantly, shedding areas around Nashville and Middle Tennessee for more areas in the western part of the state and parts of Memphis.
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The race drew dueling endorsements. Lee’s endorsement of Hatcher comes as President Donald Trump backed Ogles for reelection. The race has seen significant outside investment, and Ogles has drawn scrutiny over his remarks on homosexuality and Muslims.
Tennessee is among the few states that do not hold primaries on a Tuesday.
Newsweek reached out to the campaigns for Hatcher and Ogles for comment via email.
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Andy Ogles Led Prediction Markets
Prediction markets favored Ogles to win reelection on the morning of the primary. Ogles had an 80 percent chance of winning on Kalshi, down from 85 percent a month earlier, on Thursday. On Polymarket, Ogles’ chances of victory stood at 73 percent.
Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real‑money wagers into probability estimates.
Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends. They measure trader sentiment at a given moment but do not always accurately predict the future.
Poll Showed Close Race
Only one poll has been made public of the race. The Tusk Strategies poll showed Ogles with 37 percent support compared to Hatcher’s 33 percent. It surveyed 400 likely Republican voters July 26-28 with a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.
The district is not viewed as particularly competitive, as Trump won it by 23 points in 2024. Forecasters like the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball consider it to be safe for the eventual GOP nominee.
On the Democratic side, Chaz Molder, the mayor of Columbia, is viewed as the front-runner, having received endorsements from former Governor Phil Bredesen and Representative Steve Cohen, who is not seeking reelection in his Memphis-based district. Even though the race got more conservative in redistricting, it is listed as a Democratic target via the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's “Red to Blue” program.
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Bill Lee, Donald Trump Issue Dueling Endorsements
Lee and Trump are generally aligned but have embraced opposing candidates in this race. Hatcher announced the Lee endorsement in a Facebook post Tuesday. In the video, the governor touted his longtime friendship with Hatcher.
“I know Charlie. I know his conservative values and how much he loves our country. Charlie has stood with President Trump since day one,” Lee said.
Trump endorsed Ogles in October.
“Andy is a Conservative Warrior who has strong support from his Community. In Congress, he is fighting tirelessly to Grow our Economy, Cut Taxes and Regulations, Promote MADE IN THE U.S.A. and American Energy DOMINANCE, Safeguard our Elections, Keep our now very Secure Border, SECURE, Stop Migrant Crime, Strengthen our Military/Veterans, and Defend our always under siege Second Amendment,” Trump wrote.
Trump held a “tele-rally” with Ogles in late July, The Tennessee Lookout reported.
Lee’s endorsement comes as the super PAC Invest in Tomorrow Coalition, which is funded by developers for renewable energy, invested $2 million in the race to boost Hatcher, according to The New York Times.
“They are interfering in a Republican primary because they know how hard I FIGHT their radical agenda. We cannot let them BUY a Tennessee seat in Congress. I’m endorsed by President Trump because I’m a fighter and will never back down,” Ogles said in response to the investment.
Trump has seen success in his endorsements this primary cycle. Senator Bill Cassidy, a Louisiana Republican, lost his race, as did Representative Thomas Massie, a Kentucky Republican. Trump backed both of their opponents.
But the president has also landed notable losses. In Iowa's GOP primary for governor earlier this year, Representative Randy Feenstra conceded to businessman and farmer Zach Lahn—marking the first loss for a Trump-endorsee in this year's election cycle. Georgia Lieutenant Governor Burt Jones, one of Trump's highest-profile gubernatorial picks, also fell short in his runoff election against Rick Jackson.
Andy Ogles Faced Scrutiny Over X Posts
Ogles has faced criticism over some of his remarks, including in June after he wrote in a post on X that “homosexuality has no place in America.”
Ogles later deleted the post and responded to the backlash he faced, writing on X: "Earlier today while working on the farm, my phone began going crazy because of a post made by a member of my comms team." He added: "The post was stupid, hurtful and a complete distraction from my America First focus. The employee has been reprimanded."
It sparked pushback from Republicans. Senator Ted Cruz of Texas said that "for all of recorded history, homosexuals have been part of humanity," adding that the "behavior of consenting adults is their business."
In March, Ogles wrote that Muslims “don’t belong in American society,” drawing backlash. Richard Grenell, who serves as a special envoy to Trump, called out Ogles in a post to X: "Stop attacking the First Amendment to the United States Constitution."
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jason Lemon, Dave Siminoff, Anna Commander
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