Biden Wins Over Trump in 71 Percent Out of 40,000 Election Simulations, Forecast Shows

Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden beats President Donald Trump in the majority of 40,000 election simulations run by political site FiveThirtyEight.

The site's new 2020 Election Forecast, which was released Wednesday and will be updated regularly through Election Day on November 3, shows Biden winning over Trump in 71 percent of the 40,000 simulations. The president wins in only 29 percent of the simulations.

Biden, under the current forecast, is projected to win 323 electoral votes ,while Trump is projected to win just 215. The president would garner support from 46 percent of voters nationwide, compared with the 53 percent that would support his Democratic challenger.

We simulate the election 40,000 times to see who wins most often.

These maps are a representative sample of how things might shake out on Election Day.

— FiveThirtyEight (@FiveThirtyEight) August 12, 2020

FiveThirtyEight's founder and editor, Nate Silver, wrote in a blog post that his site's forecast is more favorable to Trump than many others. "This is considerably higher than some other forecasts, which put Trump's chances at around 10 percent," he explained.

Silver also pointed out that the current numbers look a lot like what his site predicted in 2016. FiveThirtyEight's previous forecast on Election Day in 2016 showed Clinton with a 71.4 percent chance of winning, compared with Trump's 28.6 percent. "So if you're not taking a 29 percent chance as a serious possibility, I'm not sure there's much we can say at this point," the editor wrote.

The majority of national polls currently show Biden with significantly more support than Trump. Although the number has declined in recent weeks, the current average of national polls compiled by Real Clear Politics shows the Democratic candidate about 6.9 points ahead of the president. A recent poll by Monmouth University showed Biden with 51 percent support nationwide, compared with Trump's 41 percent—a difference of 10 points.

Perhaps more concerning for Trump campaign officials, however, is Biden's apparent lead in key battleground states, including Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. These four states went blue for former President Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012 before flipping red for Trump in 2016. Democrats hope to regain these states—needing to pull off victories in just three while maintaining all the states they won in 2016—to be victorious in November.

Joe Biden
Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden speaks during a campaign event in Wilmington, Delaware, on July 28. ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS/AFP/Getty

Real Clear Politics' averages currently show Biden significantly ahead in all four states. In Florida, where Trump will cast his ballot as an official resident of the state, Biden leads by about 5 points. Meanwhile, Trump trails the former vice president by more than 6 points in Michigan and Pennsylvania, while Biden leads by about 5.5 points in Wisconsin.

Trump campaign officials have consistently dismissed negative polling numbers, arguing that most pollsters are biased against the president and Republicans. They point to 2016 as well, when most polls and forecasts indicated that Clinton was the likely winner. But Trump managed to pull off a series of wins in key swing states, propelling him to a big win in the Electoral College even as his Democratic rival won by nearly 3 million in the popular vote.