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By Andrew Stanton
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An internal poll from former Representative Colin Allred's campaign showed him with a lead over state Attorney General Ken Paxton in Texas' U.S. Senate race.
Newsweek reached out to the Allred and Paxton campaigns for comment via email.
Why It Matters
Democrats will need to compete in states like Texas if they want to win control of the Senate. Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority. Democrats view Maine, which backed former Vice President Kamala Harris by seven points against President Donald Trump last November, and North Carolina, which voted for Trump by three points, as their best opportunities to flip GOP-held seats. But no other Harris-won or single-digit Trump seats are up for grabs, meaning they will need to win seats in more conservative states like Alaska, Iowa, Ohio or Texas to win a majority.
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What To Know
Although internal polls are typically not viewed as reliably as independent surveys, the new poll underscores the potentially competitive nature of the race.
Texas voted for Trump by double digits last year, but Democrats are hopeful the race could become competitive next year—particularly if Paxton defeats Senator John Cornyn in the Republican primary. Polls suggest that Paxton has built a lead among the state's conservative electorate but would not have Cornyn's advantage as a well-known, established incumbent in the general election.
Allred led Paxton by 2 percentage points in the poll conducted by GBAO. Forty-nine percent of respondents said they would vote for Allred, while 47 percent said they intended to cast their ballots for Paxton. Four percent said they are undecided.
The poll surveyed 800 likely voters from August 13-18 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
The release of the poll comes just days after an independent poll found that Allred could be vulnerable to a primary challenger, and the Allred campaign in the memo touted the poll as showing he is "the one who can win it."
"If Democrats are to retake the majority, they must compete in Texas — and Colin is already proving that he's the one who can win it," the campaign's polling memo said. "Research from GBAO shows Colin 2 points ahead of likely GOP nominee Ken Paxton, confirming earlier research from the GOP's Senate Leadership Fund and Donald Trump's own pollster."
A Texas Southern University's Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center poll released Tuesday showed that former Representative Beto O'Rourke would have a lead over Allred if he decides to run for Senate (58 percent to 38 percent), while Representative Joaquin Castro and state Representative James Talarico could also be competitive against Allred in the primary.
Republicans plan to spend millions of dollars to support Cornyn in the primary to avoid a more expensive general election, Punchbowl News reported this month.
An Emerson College poll, which surveyed 1,000 registered voters from August 11-12, showed Paxton leading Allred by 5 points (46 percent to 41 percent), while Cornyn led Allred by 7 points (45 percent to 38 percent). It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 points.
Meanwhile, a survey conducted by GOP pollster Brad Parscale showed Paxton trailing Allred in a hypothetical matchup. It found that 52 percent of voters would likely vote for Allred to 37 percent for Paxton. It surveyed 1,000 likely voters in mid-April.
Still, winning Texas would be a major uphill challenge for Allred or another Democrat. Texas has not voted Democratic on the presidential level since 1976 and has not voted for a Democratic senator since 1988. The state last elected a Democratic governor in 1990.
Trump won Texas by more than 13 points last November, performing stronger in suburban areas while also making inroads in southern Texas, a heavily Hispanic area that shifted rightward.
Allred, however, lost by a smaller 8.5-point margin against GOP Senator Ted Cruz.
Paxton has challenged Cornyn in the primary from the right, and polls suggest he has an early lead. The Texas Southern University poll showed Paxton leading by 5 points (44 percent to 39 percent).
What People Are Saying
Allred campaign manager Dan Morrocco, in a statement provided to Newsweek: "Colin enters this race stronger than ever — already leading Ken Paxton, backed by one of the highest favorability ratings of any candidate, and building the broad, diverse coalition it will take to win. That's why Texas is now firmly on the Senate battleground map, and why Colin is the Democrat who can finally deliver a statewide victory."
Senator John Cornyn, on X: "Another day, another poll showing [Ken Paxton] losing the Texas Senate seat. A corrupt Republican nominee would help elect first statewide Democrat in 30 years."
Mark Jones, a Rice University political scientist who co-authored the report from the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey center, previously told Newsweek: "The irony for Allred is that the qualities that make him more attractive to national Democrats—that is being more pragmatic, more centrist and better able to win over independents and moderate Republicans—tend to make him less attractive among Democratic primary voters who see him as too close to the center, too focused on appealing to moderate Republicans, rather than to progressive Democrats."
What Happens Next
The Cook Political Report classifies the race as Likely Republican, meaning it is "not considered competitive at this point" but has "the potential to become engaged." Sabato's Crystal Ball also lists the race as Likely Republican.
The primary will be held on March 3, 2026.
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