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By Andrew Stanton
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As Democrats hope to stage a comeback in Florida's 2026 Senate and gubernatorial races, a poll released by the Florida Chamber of Commerce on Friday gave Republicans single-digit leads.
Historically, the party in the White House loses seats in the midterms, so Democrats are hoping to win seats in more conservative states like Florida in November. The Sunshine State, once a premier battleground state, has shifted steadily to the right in recent cycles, backing President Donald Trump by double-digits in the 2024 presidential race.
But the state was seen as competitive less than a decade ago, and Democrats believe Florida could again be competitive in this year's elections due to a more favorable national environment fueled by Trump's faltering national approval rating and a potential reversion among Hispanic and Latino voters, once a strongly Democratic voting bloc that has drifted toward Republicans in recent cycles.
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Newsweek reached out to each campaign mentioned in the poll for comment via email.
Florida Senate Race: What Poll Shows About Ashley Moody vs. Alexander Vindman
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis appointed Republican Ashley Moody to serve the remainder of Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s term that began in 2022. She is running to finish the term in this year’s special Senate race. Moody served as the state's attorney general prior to the appointment, having won races in 2018 and 2022.
Alexander Vindman, a U.S. Army veteran and former national security official who was a key figure in the 2019 Trump impeachment, is running against several other Democrats in the primary, including state Representative Angie Nixon.
Moody led Vindman by 8 points in the new poll, with 48 percent of respondents saying they would back the incumbent Republican and 40 percent saying they would support her Democratic challenger. It did not include results of a matchup against Nixon.
The poll surveyed 604 Floridians from May 1-9 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. It was conducted by Cherry Communications on behalf of the Florida Chamber.
Albert Fujii, a spokesperson for Vindman, told Newsweek the Senate hopeful is “outraising Ashley Moody handily and many polls show this race as a statistical tie because Alex’s promise to lower costs and crush corruption is resonating with Democrats, Independents, and registered Republicans alike.”
"While Ashley Moody is nowhere to be seen, we are building a grassroots campaign that is energizing hundreds of thousands of Floridians who are being crushed by the skyrocketing costs of gas, groceries, insurance, and housing because corrupt politicians like Ashley Moody are happy to cash checks from special interests while doing nothing to lower the cost of living here in Florida," Fujii said.
What Other Polls Show About Florida Senate Race
Moody has carved out an early polling lead. A Stetson University poll showed her up 7 points over Vindman. She received support from 49 percent of respondents, compared to Vindman’s 42 percent. In a matchup against Nixon, she had a larger lead, receiving 51 percent support to the Democrat’s 38 percent.
It surveyed 848 likely voters from March 15 to April 13 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.
Moody also led both Democrats in a recent Emerson College survey. She received 46 percent support in that poll compared to Vindman’s 38 percent. Against Nixon, she led by 11 percent with 47 percent to Nixon’s 36 percent.
It surveyed 1,125 likely voters from March 29-31 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.
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Florida Governor Race: What Poll Shows About Byron Donalds vs. Democrats
GOP Representative Byron Donalds led the race to succeed DeSantis, who is term-limited, as governor in the new poll against two potential Democratic rivals.
In a matchup against former Representative David Jolly, 47 percent said they would support Donalds, while 39 percent said they would cast their ballots for Jolly. Donalds held a similar lead over Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings, with 48 percent saying they would support him compared to 39 percent for the Democratic candidate.
Donalds, who is endorsed by Trump, is facing numerous other Republicans in the primary including Lieutenant Governor Jay Collins, former Florida House Speaker Paul Renner and James Fishback, but they were not included in the poll.
Donalds currently represents a solidly conservative district based around Fort Myers, Cape Coral and Naples in the southwestern region of the state.
Demings serves as the chief executive for Orange County, home to Orlando, while Jolly represented a Pinellas County-based district from 2014 to 2017. Jolly served in Congress as a Republican but has left the party to become a Democrat amid his opposition to Trump.
Jolly responded to the poll in a statement to Newsweek, saying: "There's no scenario in which only 1 out of 6 voters consider the economy their most important issue. It appears their instrument was a complete waste of money. I'm confident change is here."
Donalds’ communications director Gates McGavick told Newsweek that Donalds “continues his dominating lead in poll after poll because Floridians know he is the proven America First fighter who will lower costs, uphold the rule of law, and defeat the Radical Democrats this November.”
What Do Other Polls Show About Florida Gubernatorial Race?
The Stetson University poll gave Donalds a lead over Jolly and Demings. He received 47 percent support against Jolly, who polled at 40 percent. The lead was narrower against Demings, who received 42 percent support to Donalds’ 46 percent.
In the Emerson College poll, Donalds led Jolly by six points with 44 percent to the Democrat’s 39 percent. He led Demings by 9 points with 45 percent to Demings’ 36 percent.
What Prediction Markets Show About Democrats' Chances in Florida
Republicans are favored to hold both races in prediction markets.
In the Senate race, Republicans had an 82 percent chance of victory on Kalshi and an 83 percent chance on Polymarket. In the gubernatorial race, Republicans had a 77 percent chance on Kalshi and an 81 percent chance on Polymarket of holding onto the seat as of Friday afternoon.
The Cook Political Report, a major elections forecaster, rates both races as Safe Republican.
Democrats See Special Elections as Positive Sign in Florida
The outcome of recent Florida special elections has fueled Democrats’ hope they could make the state competitive in this year's midterms. Democrats prevailed in several special elections—including in the district home to Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate—in March, giving the party a glimmer of hope in a state where they have lost ground.
Meanwhile, Democrat Brian Nathan defeated a Republican in Senate District 14 in the race to succeed Collins after he was named lieutenant governor.
Democrats have overperformed in special elections across the country since Trump returned to office, fueling expectations that they will do well in the midterms.
How Florida Shifted From Swing State to Solid Republican
Florida, once a premier battleground, has become increasingly difficult for Democrats over the past decade. Trump carried the state by 13 points in 2024, up from a three-point victory in 2020 and a one-point win in 2016. Former President Barack Obama won the state in 2008 and 2012.
Republicans have also expanded their voter registration advantage, while Democrats have struggled to remain competitive in statewide races.
Several factors contributed to the realignment. Republicans have made inroads among Latino voters, flipping traditionally Democratic areas, including Miami Dade County, while Democrats have struggled to counter GOP messaging in the state.
Population growth also played a role. Florida added millions of new residents, many arriving from more conservative states during the COVID-19 pandemic. The GOP’s growing edge was reflected at the ballot box, culminating in DeSantis’ landslide reelection in 2022.
Those victories allowed Republicans to enact a wave of conservative policies in the state that may also be a draw to Republican voters fleeing more progressive states like New York. Over the past several years, Florida enacted conservative‑leaning policies on education, voting, immigration and social issues.
Darryl Paulson, professor emeritus of government at the University of South Florida, told Newsweek that Democrats could eventually win political control in Florida—but that may not happen in the midterms.
“Is it likely in the near future?” he asked. “No. The transfer of government from Republicans to Democrats would depend on a couple of things.”
It would take a Republican government “overwhelmed with corruption” or a “failure of a Republican president to perform his duties to such an extent that the state and local party suffers as a result” for Democrats to flip control of the government, Paulson said.
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