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By Andrew Stanton
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Democrats received welcoming news about the midterms as a key forecaster shifted six major governor races in their favor on Thursday.
Olivia Davis, spokesperson for the Democratic Governors Association, responded to the update in a statement to Newsweek.
"Our landslide victories in Virginia and New Jersey last year prove that our playbook is battle-tested to win. As Republicans continue to tout their unpopular economic agenda that is raising costs, killing jobs, and cutting health care, Democrats will continue to focus on the issues that matter most to the people in their states, including a relentless focus on affordability, that will lead to more Democratic governors this November," Davis said.
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Newsweek also reached out to the Republican Governors Association for comment.
Why It Matters
At the moment, 27 states are led by Republicans and 23 by Democrats. But that could change after November, when dozens of gubernatorial offices are up for grabs. Democrats are optimistic about their chances in the midterms, as the party in the White House has historically lost seats, and President Donald Trump’s declining approval rating could be a drain on Republican candidates nationwide. But they are still defending several seats in states Trump won in the 2024 presidential race, so those races are still expected to be competitive in November.
Which Races Shifted Toward Democrats?
The elections forecaster Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifted six races toward Democrats on Thursday.
- Arizona, where Democratic Governor Katie Hobbs is up for reelection, shifted from Toss-up to Leans Democratic.
- Georgia shifted from Leans Republican to Toss-up.
- Minnesota shifted from Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic.
- New York, where Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul is seeking reelection, shifted from Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic.
- Ohio shifted from Likely Republican to Leans Republican.
- Rhode Island, where Governor Dan McKee is running for reelection, shifted from Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic.
In addition to Georgia, Sabato’s Crystal Ball classifies gubernatorial races in Wisconsin and Michigan as the other two tossups for November.
“Despite a litany of gubernatorial rating changes today in favor of Democrats, Republicans may still break the usual pattern of midterm net gubernatorial losses for the president’s party. Meanwhile, Democrats have an opportunity of their own to do something they haven’t done since the 2010 election: hold a majority of the nation’s governorships. But it’s a challenging path,” analysts Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman wrote in the update.
Why Ratings Changed in These Six Races
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Arizona
Hobbs is not expected to face serious opposition in her primary and will face either Representative Andy Biggs or Representative David Schweikert, Republicans, in the general election. Trump has endorsed Biggs’ campaign.
Kondik and Coleman pointed to recent electoral trends among Latino voters as one reason Hobbs may be favored.
“In the 2025 gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia, Latino-heavy precincts voted noticeably more Democratic than they did in 2024. If similar shifts materialize in the Southwest, they could have a more pronounced impact in both Arizona and Nevada. For Hobbs, a Latino reversion could lessen the generic GOP edge in Arizona, which reasserted itself in a major way in 2024 as Trump carried the state by 5.5 points after he narrowly lost it in 2020,” they wrote.
Hobbs is also outperforming her potential Republican challengers. A late February Noble Predictive Insights poll shows Hobbs leading Biggs 42 percent to 37 percent, and also ahead of Schweikert 44 percent to 35 percent. It surveyed 1,023 registered voters from February 23-26.
Arizona was Trump’s strongest swing state in 2024, giving him 52.2 percent of the vote.
Georgia
In Georgia, Republican Governor Brian Kemp cannot run again due to term limits. Both parties are expected to have crowded primaries. Republican candidates include the Trump-backed Lieutenant Governor Burt Jones, Georgia Attorney General Chris Carr and Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger.
Democratic candidates include former Lieutenant Governor Geoff Duncan, former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms and former state Representative Jason Esteves.
General election polling is limited, but the forecasters said the race appears to be “a little more up in the air than when we first looked at it.”
“At the federal level, we have Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) as a favorite for reelection to the Senate. While it’s easy to see some ticket-splitting benefiting Republicans in the other statewide races, we don’t know that it would be enough to justify keeping the gubernatorial race two categories away, at Leans Republican. We are moving Georgia from Leans Republican to Toss-up,” they wrote.
Georgia narrowly backed Trump in 2024, giving him 50.7 percent of the vote.
Minnesota
Amy Klobuchar, a popular senator who has won large margins in the past, opted to run for governor after incumbent Democratic Governor Tim Walz announced his retirement. Minnesota has seen a tumultuous few months amid heightened immigration enforcement in Minneapolis and the killings of two American citizens by federal officers.
Her “entrance into the open Minnesota race combined with the lack of an obviously top-tier Republican challenger means that state is probably an easier hold” than if Walz were the nominee, they wrote.
An Emerson College poll from early February shows Klobuchar leading Republican House Speaker Lisa Demuth 51 percent to 38 percent and former GOP candidate Mike Lindell 53 percent to 31 percent. It surveyed 1,000 likely voters from February 6-8.
Minnesota gave former Vice President Kamala Harris 50.9 percent of the vote in 2024.
New York
In New York, Hochul’s positioning has solidified to the point where she is in no real danger, either in a primary or a general election,” the forecasters said.
Despite Hochul’s underperformance in 2022, the Democratic governor seems favored in recent polls to comfortably win reelection as the party has rallied behind her candidacy. The latest Siena College poll showed her leading Republican Bruce Blakeman 51 percent to 31 percent. It surveyed 805 registered voters from February 23-26.
New York gave Harris 55.9 percent of its vote in 2024.
Ohio
In Ohio, Republican Vivek Ramaswamy is expected to face off against former Ohio Department of Health director Amy Acton. Although the state is generally viewed as conservative, several recent polls gave Acton a lead.
Acton led Ramaswamy by 45.9 percent to 44.9 percent in a Quantus Insights poll released on Monday. It surveyed 809 likely voters from March 13-14 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points. An earlier poll from the Ohio Environmental Council showed Acton leading 53 percent to 43 percent. It surveyed 1,343 likely voters from February 10-22 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.7 percentage points.
There have been cases of “Democrats sometimes leading polls in Ohio only to be swamped by the state’s GOP lean in the end,” the forecasters wrote.
They wrote that “looming uncomfortably over the race is the possibility that Ramaswamy might face some sort of racist electoral penalty for being an Indian-American candidate in a whiter-than-average state.” Acton, who played a key role in crafting the state’s COVID-19 response, also “provides Republicans with natural lines of attack concerning what they believe was the public sector’s overreaction to the pandemic,” they said.
Ohio gave Trump 55.1 percent of its vote.
Rhode Island
In Rhode Island, McKee has faced low approval ratings, but the state is still viewed as a solidly Democratic state. He is facing a primary challenge from former CVS executive Helena Foulkes.
“Gov. Dan McKee (D-RI) is in serious danger of losing a primary, but that may actually make it even harder for Republicans to compete in that blue state,” the forecasters wrote.
Rhode Island gave Harris 55.5 percent of its vote in 2024.
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