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By Sam Stevenson
Associate News Editor
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Voters are casting their ballots in 10 Senate contests where Democrats lead, testing whether dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump and Republican control of Washington translates into electoral losses.
AtlasIntel’s final surveys show Democratic advantages ranging from 2.4 points in Minnesota to 14.9 points in North Carolina, although several races remain close enough for turnout or polling error to alter the outcome.
Costas Panagopoulos, a distinguished professor of political science at Northeastern University, told Newsweek that midterms are often “referenda on incumbent party performance,” with voters using them to judge a president’s first two years.
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That dynamic may be sharper because Republicans control the federal government. “If voters are unhappy, they know where to lay the blame,” Panagopoulos said, adding that public dissatisfaction appeared to be creating “a Democratic advantage.”
Panagopoulos said independent voters may prove especially important after helping Trump in 2024.
He said a significant segment now appears to have defected from Republican support, although the final scale of any movement will only become clear once votes are counted.
White House spokesman Davis Ingle called Trump the Republican Party’s “best messenger” and “unmatched motivator,” arguing that his record and MAGA coalition would help the GOP retain its congressional majorities in a previous statement.
Newsweek contacted the White House on Tuesday morning via email for further comment.
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Why It Matters
Midterm elections have historically presented problems for the president’s party because they give dissatisfied voters an opportunity to impose a check on the White House.
Republicans entered Election Day holding a 53-45 Senate majority, with two independents caucusing with Democrats.
A total of 33 regular Senate elections and two special contests are taking place, with Democrats needing a net gain of four seats to take control, provided they hold all their existing seats.
Key Points
- Three Democratic candidates reached at least 53 percent in the AtlasIntel poll results.
- North Carolina produced the widest gap, while Minnesota was the only contest with neither major-party nominee above 50 percent.
- Kansas has not elected a Democratic senator since 1932.
- Alaska will decide its winner through ranked-choice voting if nobody receives an initial majority.
- New Hampshire polling hours vary by municipality, and voters should check their local clerk’s website for opening and closing times.
What To Know About the Poll and Pollster
AtlasIntel questioned likely voters from October 28 to November 1. Each race contained different sample sizes and margins of error.
Panagopoulos cautioned that determining who will participate in the midterm elections is “as much an art as it is a science,” because pollsters use different likely-voter models.
AtlasIntel says its final 2024 presidential polling produced the most precise national estimate and correctly mapped the Electoral College outcome.
The company attributed that performance to its digital recruitment and statistical-calibration system.
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North Carolina And Maine
Former two-term North Carolina governor Roy Cooper, who previously served four terms as state attorney general, led Republican Michael Whatley by 56.4 percent to 41.5 percent.
Whatley, an attorney and former North Carolina GOP chair, is seeking elected office after a career in party leadership.
The poll questioned 1,459 likely voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 points. North Carolina polling places are open from 6:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m.
In Maine, former state Senate president and logger Troy Jackson had 53.1 percent against Susan Collins’ 44 percent.
Collins has repeatedly defied Democratic hopes of unseating her during nearly three decades in the Senate, meaning her polling deficit should not be treated as decisive.
Jackson became the replacement Democratic nominee after primary winner Graham Platner withdrew over allegations of sexual assault, which he denies, while Collins is seeking a sixth Senate term after first winning in 1996.
That sample included 967 likely voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 points. Opening times vary locally, but every Maine polling place closes at 8 p.m.
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New Hampshire And Ohio
Four-term Democratic Representative Chris Pappas led former Republican senator John Sununu by 52.3 percent to 44.2 percent in New Hampshire.
Pappas, a former state executive councilor and family restaurant co-owner, became New Hampshire’s first openly gay House member; Sununu previously served one Senate term and three House terms.
AtlasIntel surveyed 1,057 likely voters, producing a margin of error of plus or minus 3 points. Voting hours are set by individual municipalities.
Former three-term senator Sherrod Brown registered 51.4 percent in Ohio, compared with 43.9 percent for incumbent Jon Husted.
Brown is attempting a comeback after losing in 2024; Husted, a former lieutenant governor and secretary of state, was appointed to replace JD Vance. The winner completes the final two years of the term.
Its 1,801-person sample carried a margin of error of plus or minus 2 points. Ohio polls run from 6:30 a.m. until 7:30 p.m.
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Michigan And Kansas
Physician and former Detroit health director Abdul El-Sayed stood at 53.5 percent in Michigan, ahead of former FBI agent and House Intelligence Committee chair Mike Rogers at 46.4 percent.
El-Sayed previously ran unsuccessfully for governor in 2018; Rogers is seeking the Senate after narrowly losing the state’s 2024 contest.
The survey covered 1,316 likely voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 points. Michigan polls are open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. local time.
In Kansas, first-time federal candidate Adam Hamilton, founder of the country’s largest United Methodist congregation, led incumbent Roger Marshall by 51.9 percent to 44.9 percent.
Marshall is an obstetrician, Army Reserve veteran and former congressman seeking a second Senate term.
The sample of 2,038 likely voters had a margin of error of plus or minus 2 points. Polls generally operate from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m., although counties may adopt different hours while remaining open for at least 12 consecutive hours.
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Texas And Alaska
Texas state Representative James Talarico, a former middle-school teacher first elected in 2018, received 51.3 percent against Attorney General Ken Paxton’s 45.4 percent.
Paxton, a former state representative and senator, reached the general election after defeating incumbent Senator John Cornyn in a Republican runoff.
AtlasIntel questioned 1,678 likely voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2 points. Texas polls are open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Former Alaska congresswoman Mary Peltola held 50.1 percent of valid-voter preferences, compared with 44.6 percent for two-term Republican Senator Dan Sullivan.
Born in Alaska, Peltola previously served in the state House, worked as a commercial fisher and won three House elections before losing in 2024.
The race is complicated by the presence on the ballot of retired teacher Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., whose shared name with the incumbent has prompted Republican concerns that voters could be confused and support siphoned from Dan Sullivan.
The 522-person sample had the widest margin of error, plus or minus 4 points. Polls run from 7 a.m. until 8 p.m., and voters may rank four candidates.
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Iowa And Minnesota
Iowa state Representative Josh Turek, a four-time Paralympian and three-time medalist, led Representative Ashley Hinson by 50.5 percent to 46.4 percent.
Hinson, a former television reporter, has served in Congress since 2021; the pair are competing for retiring Senator Joni Ernst’s seat.
The poll surveyed 1,219 likely voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 points. Iowa voting runs from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.
Minnesota Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan, a former state legislator and Minneapolis school board member, recorded 48.1 percent against former sports broadcaster Michele Tafoya’s 45.7 percent. Both are making their first Senate run for the seat being vacated by Tina Smith.
Its 2,133 likely voters produced a margin of error of plus or minus 2 points, making the nominal gap statistically uncertain. Minnesota polls usually open at 7 a.m. and close at 8 p.m., although towns with fewer than 500 residents may open later.
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What Happens Next
Panagopoulos said evidence of a broader Democratic movement would involve competitive races moving in the same partisan direction across varied states.
AtlasIntel’s 10-state pattern meets part of that test, but ballots, not surveys, will determine whether it becomes an electoral wave.
Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here.
Contact Newsweek editor on this story: Edward Pearcey.
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