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By Kate Plummer
Senior US News Reporter
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Democrats are seeing signs of new life in the 2026 Senate map after a string of stronger‑than‑expected special‑election results culminated last week in a stunning flip of a Texas state Senate district that Donald Trump carried by 17 points. Combined with improving odds in several battleground Senate races tracked by prediction market Kalshi, the party is entering February with growing momentum.
William Hall, an adjunct professor of political science and business at Webster University in St. Louis, Missouri, told Newsweek that this should be a warning sign for the GOP. “Barring any significant unanticipated and/or unforeseen changes in either policy positions or strategies, Republican Senate candidates would appear to be in trouble, particularly as it relates to their potential for success, in the rapidly approaching, upcoming 2026 midterm elections.”
He added that national controversies may be compounding Republican vulnerabilities. “The current, highly controversial events and growing ongoing storm of criticism of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security and its leadership, involving the recent deaths of two American citizens by ICE agents, has continued to fuel criticism and controversies over the role of federal policies and the safety, appropriateness and implementation of programmatic procedures involving immigration operations in U.S. cities.”
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Newsweek reached out to the White House by email to comment on this story.
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Why It Matters
Midterm elections can upset the balance of power in Congress. Traditionally, the party that does not hold the White House tends to do better in midterm elections. In 2018, Republicans lost the House and the Democrats gained 41 seats.
This year, Republicans are defending a 53 seat majority in the Senate, with 35 seats up for grabs. If the Democrats win the Senate, they can undermine President Donald Trump's policy agenda and weaken his grip on power. However, analysis has suggested the GOP will still win the Senate.
What To Know
Democrats face a narrow and difficult path to retaking the Senate in 2026. To win back control, the party must hold all three of its battleground defenses—Georgia, Michigan and New Hampshire—while flipping at least four Republican‑held seats, most plausibly North Carolina, Maine, Ohio and Alaska. Texas and Iowa are also targets.
In traditionally competitive Georgia, where incumbent Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff is hoping to retain his seat, the Democrats' chances of doing so have increased 7.3 percentage points to 78.6 percent on Kalshi since November 4, 2025.
Kalshi functions as a real‑money prediction market, where users buy and sell contracts on political outcomes, creating constantly updated probability estimates.
In Michigan and New Hampshire, where two Democratic retirements have created open seats, Democrats have seen their chances of victory increase from 76 percent to 77.9 percent, and 77 percent to 81 percent on the platform, respectively.
In North Carolina, another open seat, Kalshi activity shows Democrats' chances have increased by 14.3 points from 61.7 percent to 76 percent. In Maine, meanwhile, where the party is looking to unseat five-term Republican Senator Susan Collins, Democrats are predicted a 64.9 percent chance of winning.
Democrats chances of winning Alaska, which hasn't had a Democratic senator since 2015, shot up last month ahead of former Representative Mary Peltola's announcement that she was running against incumbent Senator Dan Sullivan. Kalshi now has chances of a Democratic victory at 45 percent, up from 27 percent on November 4.
In ruby-red Texas, where Democrat Taylor Rehmet, a military veteran and union leader, won state Senate District 9 by more than 14 percentage points on Saturday, the Democrats' chances of flipping Senator John Cornyn's seat blue have increased 16 points, from 17.5 percent in November, to 33.5 percent as of early Monday.
While recent special‑election results and prediction‑market shifts suggest the environment may be improving, nonpartisan analysts caution against overstating Democratic momentum. Sabato’s Crystal Ball said this week that while “a couple of rating changes” now tilt toward Democrats, Republicans remain favored overall to retain control of Congress' upper chamber.
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Democrats’ Biggest Swings in Recent Special Elections
The below figures are based on data compiled by The Downballot and swings reflect Democratic improvement compared to the district’s 2024 Trump–Harris presidential margin.
Texas SD‑09 — Democratic swing: +32
Democrats achieved the largest over‑performance of the cycle in this Trump‑won district. Trump carried SD‑09 by 17 points in 2024, but Democrat Taylor Rehmet won the 2025–26 special election outright, producing a +32‑point shift from the 2024 baseline. The special was held November 4, 2025, with a runoff on January 31, 2026, where Rehmet defeated Republican Leigh Wambsganss 57.21 percent to 42.79 percent.
Iowa SD‑35 — Democratic swing: +25
This district backed Trump by 21 points in 2024, but Democrats flipped it in the January 28, 2025 special. Mike Zimmer defeated Republican Katie Whittington 51.71 percent to 48.08 percent, marking a +25‑point improvement on the 2024 presidential margin and turning a deep‑red area blue.
Mississippi SD‑02 — Democratic swing: +19
Trump won this north Mississippi‑based district decisively in 2024, but Democrats cut deep into GOP margins in the November 4, 2025 special. Democrat Theresa Gillespie Isom beat Republican Charlie Hoots with 62.8 percent to 37.2 percent, a +19‑point improvement over the 2024 baseline.
Mississippi SD‑45 — Democratic swing: +19
Another strong GOP district in the 2024 presidential race, SD‑45 saw a dramatic Democratic surge in the November 4, 2025 special. Democrat Johnny DuPree defeated Republican Anna Rush with 71.3 percent to 28.7 percent, producing a +19‑point swing compared to Trump’s 2024 performance.
Georgia HD‑121 — Democratic swing: +14
Trump carried this Athens‑area district by double digits in 2024, but the December 9, 2025 special delivered a narrow Democratic win. Democrat Eric Gisler beat Republican Dutch Guest 50.85 percent to 49.15 percent, representing a +14‑point swing from the 2024 Trump–Harris margin.
What People Are Saying
Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee President Heather Williams shared this statement with Newsweek: “We’re only a month into the year, and Democrats are already delivering earthquake wins in deep red Texas. This Trump district hasn’t been in play for Democrats in three decades, but tonight Senator-elect Taylor Rehmet pulled off a stunning victory. Tonight’s win is the latest proof point of state Democrats’ momentum as we gear up for our most expansive target map ever, including picking up even more seats in Texas this November."
What Happens Next
Both parties are now preparing for one of the most competitive and high‑stakes midterms in a decade—one that will determine how much of Trump’s agenda Congress is willing to pass over the next two years.
The midterms are scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 3 this year.
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