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By Andrew Stanton
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Republicans are eyeing a handful of states, including two won by President Donald Trump in the last election, as potential flip opportunities in the 2026 Senate races.
Why It Matters
Roughly one-third of Senate seats are up for reelection in November. Democrats believe a “blue wave” will be seen this year that carries them to victory in key races and are hoping to flip GOP-held seats in places like Maine or North Carolina. But they are also likely to face competitive Senate races in seats they currently hold.
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What to Know
The seats held by Democratic Senators Jon Ossoff in Georgia and Gary Peters in Michigan are viewed as Republicans’ best pickup opportunities, as Trump carried both states in November 2024.
Other potential flips would require Republicans to win in more traditionally Democratic-leaning states like Minnesota and New Hampshire, neither of which backed Trump in his three presidential campaigns. How competitive those races become could depend on how popular Trump is in November.
Republicans are also defending seats in Democratic-leaning Maine, where GOP Senator Susan Collins has won in the past despite the state’s liberal tilt, and North Carolina. Democrats are also hoping to make competitive races in states like Iowa, Ohio or Texas.
The Cook Political Report classifies Georgia and Michigan as tossups, New Hampshire as Leans Democrat and Minnesota as Likely Democrat. Here’s how things stand in each of those races.
Georgia
Ossoff was first elected in 2020, winning 50.6 percent of the vote in his first Senate bid in the nation’s latest swing state. The Peach State was viewed as more conservative for much of the 2000s, but the growth of Atlanta and its suburbs has caused the state to become increasingly competitive.
Republican candidates include Representative Buddy Carter, Representative Mike Collins and former Tennessee Volunteers football coach Derek Dooley. Ossoff is unlikely to face a competitive primary.
The latest polls show a potentially close race.
A Quantus Insights poll from September showed Ossoff and Collins tied at 38 percent but gave Ossoff a 3-point lead over Carter (40 to 37 percent) and a 7-point lead over Dooley (42 to 35 percent). It surveyed 624 registered and likely voters from September 9-12, 2025, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points.
A Cygnal poll showed Ossoff leading Carter by about four points (46 to 42 percent) and Collins by nearly three percentage points (about 46 to 43 percent). It surveyed 800 general election voters from May 15-17, 2025, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.41 percentage points.
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Michigan
Peters is retiring, leaving open the Senate race in Michigan.
On the Democratic side, Representative Haley Stevens, state Senator Mallory McMorrow and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed are running. Prominent Democrats like Governor Gretchen Whitmer and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg opted against running.
Former Representative Mike Rogers, who ran for Senate in 2024 but narrowly lost to Democrat Elissa Slotkin, is running in the GOP primary.
The race is likely to be close. A Mitchell, Research & Communications poll, the latest public survey of the race, showed Rogers lead each candidates—Stevens by two points (42 to 40 percent), El-Sayed by three points (41 to 38 percent) and McMorrow by six points (44 to 38 percent). It surveyed 616 likely voters from November 18-21, 2025.
An EPIC-MRA poll was more favorable to Democrats. It showed Stevens with a two-point lead (44 to 42 percent) and McMorrow with a single-point lead (43 to 42 percent) over Rogers. It surveyed 600 respondents in November, the Detroit Free Press reported.
New Hampshire
Senator Jeanne Shaheen, a Democrat, is also retiring in New Hampshire, a state Trump lost by fewer than three points in 2024.
Representative Chris Pappas is viewed as the frontrunner on the Democratic side. Two former senators—John Sununu and Scott Brown, who represented Massachusetts in the Senate—are running in the GOP primary.
Pappas has led polling. A new NHJournal/Praecones Analytica poll showed Pappas leading Brown by 18 points (46 to 28 percent) and Sununu by six points (42 to 36 percent), with a sizable number of respondents saying they’re undecided about how they would vote. It surveyed 603 registered voters just after Christmas.
A poll from Saint Anselm College showed Pappas up eight points over Brown (44 to 36 percent) and three points over Sununu (44 to 41 percent). It surveyed 2,112 registered voters from November 18-19, 2025, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.1 percentage points.
Minnesota
The Minnesota Senate race could also be competitive; although it rarely elects Republicans, Trump lost the state by only about four points in the last election. Senator Tina Smith, a Democrat, is retiring.
Representative Angie Craig and Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan are both running in the Democratic primary. Royce White, a former NBA player, as well as former Senate minority leader David Hann are among those running in the GOP primary.
Polling of the race is a bit more limited.
A Public Policy Polling survey from September polled voters using a “generic Republican” instead of a specific candidate. It found Craig leading a generic Republican by four points (47 to 43 percent) and Flanagan by two points (46 to 44 percent). It surveyed 1,015 likely voters from September 15-16, 2025.
What People Are Saying
National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) regional press secretary Nick Puglia told Newsweek: “Democrats are the most unpopular they’ve ever been because candidates like Jon Ossoff have nothing to offer the American people except a promise of returning to open borders, wasted taxpayer spending that drove up prices, and hatred for President Trump. American families deserve better, and Senate Republicans will continue fighting for safer communities, lower costs and more money in your pocket.”
Joe Bush, spokesperson for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC), told Newsweek: “Democrats are in a strong position to flip the majority. Republicans’ toxic agenda has failed the American people by spiking prices across the board and gutting access to health care. In 2026, voters will hold Republican Senate candidates accountable for raising costs, and rally behind Democrats who are fighting for working families.”
Journalist Zaid Jilani wrote on X on December 30: “I have yet to talk to any politico in Georgia who thinks the Republicans will win the Senate seat in 2026. This datapoint alone — GOP is hopeless in a state where they control most every statewide office and legislature — shows how much of a failure Trump is.”
EPIC-MRA pollster Bernie Porn told The Detroit Free Press in November 2025: “The economic numbers and the tariffs, they are going to be key messaging elements for Democrats. One would think they have the potential to have a big impact on the election.”
What Happens Next
Candidates will spend the coming months making their cases to voters ahead of key primaries and elections. Kalshi gives Republicans a 68 percent chance of victory over Democrats in the Senate races this year.
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