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By Sam Stevenson
Associate News Editor
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President Donald Trump has now spent a full year with a negative net approval rating, marking a milestone that CNN's polling expert said carries serious implications for the 2026 midterm elections.
White House spokesman Davis Ingle told Newsweek in an emailed statement, "The ultimate poll was November 5, 2024, when nearly 80 million Americans overwhelmingly elected President Trump to deliver on his popular and common-sense agenda."
Why It Matters
Trump’s prolonged struggles in the polls have come as Democratic have gained momentum heading into the midterms.
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His sustained underwater approval could shape messaging as the country heads into key midterm elections.
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What To Know
CNN polling expert Harry Enten says Trump has crossed a threshold no modern president would welcome—an entire year with a negative net approval rating.
Speaking in an appearance on the network, Enten said his polling aggregate shows Trump has been “underwater” every single day since March 12, 2025.
“We’ve been counting up the days,” Enten said, adding that the president has now reached “the point at which Trump has been swimming with the fishes for a year.”
The finding comes from Enten’s review of multiple national polls combined into a rolling average.
While Trump’s approval has fluctuated, it has been unable to cross back into net positive territory over the past 12 months, a stretch that places him in historic territory for a second-term president.
Enten said the consequences extend beyond approval numbers and possibly into control of Congress.
Polling trends and prediction markets, he argued, are increasingly aligned in showing Democratic gains as a realistic outcome in November.
“We have been talking about the House and pretty much every historical marker, all the prediction markets, all the polling, indicate that the Democrats are in the catbird seat when it comes to taking back the House,” Enten said.
What has surprised analysts, he added, is growing evidence that Democrats could also retake the Senate.
“That is a pretty big deal,” Enten said, noting that many observers long assumed Democrats would reclaim the House but viewed the Senate as a tougher lift due to a significantly tougher map.
The combined possibility of winning both chambers, he suggested, would amount to “taking back the whole enchilada.”
How the Prediction Markets See It
That shift is reflected in betting activity on Kalshi, a regulated U.S.-based prediction market where users buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes.
At the time of writing, Kalshi shows Republicans with a narrow edge to win the Senate, at 52 percent, compared with Democrats at 48 percent.
Roughly $2.1 million has been invested in that market, reflecting both strong interest and a closely divided outlook.
The House picture appears far less competitive.
Kalshi currently places the Democrats’ chances of winning the U.S. House at 85 percent, with Republicans at 15 percent.
That market has drawn about $6.6 million in trading volume, suggesting traders are far more confident about a Democratic takeover of the lower chamber.
Prediction markets allow participants to wager real money on future events, with prices shifting as new information becomes available.
Rather than reflecting a single poll or analyst view, the numbers represent the collective judgment of thousands of traders reacting to polling data, political developments and historical trends.
Enten said what stands out is not just where the odds sit now, but how they are moving.
Democratic chances of sweeping Congress, while still below 50 percent, have been “rising, rising, rising,” he said, describing the climb as a “stairway to heaven.”
What People Are Saying
CNN polling expert Harry Enten wrote in a post on X: “Trump and GOP have a big freaking problem!
‘Milestone: Trump’s net approval has now been underwater for a year. He has the worst net approval with indies at this part in term two of any president this century.
‘The effect: Dems have a very real chance of winning the Senate, not just House.’”
President Donald Trump has publicly dismissed unfavorable polling in recent weeks, telling the New York Post about low approval tied to the Iran war: “I think that the polling is very good, but I don’t care about polling. I have to do the right thing. I have to do the right thing. This should have been done a long time ago.”
White House spokesman Davis Ingle told Newsweek in an emailed statement: “The ultimate poll was November 5, 2024, when nearly 80 million Americans overwhelmingly elected President Trump to deliver on his popular and common-sense agenda.
“The president has already made historic progress not only in America but around the world. It is not surprising that President Trump remains the most dominant figure in American politics.”
Brett Lloyd, polling and research specialist for the Independent Center, told Newsweek: “The priority shouldn’t be firing up the base — it should be persuading the voters standing in the checkout line.
“He doesn’t need to fire up the people who already have the hat; he needs to convince the independent voter who is underwater on their car loan that he has a stable plan to fix it. Less ‘retribution,’ more ‘remedy.’”
What Happens Next
Attention now turns to whether Trump can reverse his polling before campaign season intensifies, or whether the numbers and market signals continue to harden against Republicans.
Upcoming economic data, foreign policy developments and congressional battles are likely to shape voter sentiment heading into the midterms.
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Newsweek may earn an affiliate commission if you sign up through any links in this article. See the prediction market operator’s terms and conditions for important details. The probabilities referenced in this story are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
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