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By Andrew Stanton
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Former President Donald Trump is trailing President Joe Biden among Florida women voters, according to a new poll.
A new poll released this week revealed that Trump is struggling to win over a majority of female voters in Florida, viewed as a former swing state that has shifted to Republicans in recent election cycles. Florida voted for former President Barack Obama in both his 2008 and 2012 presidential races, but flipped to Republicans to back Trump in 2016 and again voted for him in 2020, ending its status as a bellwether state.
The poll, conducted by FOX 13/Insider Advantage, shows Trump poised to win Florida again in November. Across all voters, Trump holds a 6-point lead over Biden (50 percent to 44 percent).
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Still, Biden held a narrow lead among women voters in the Sunshine State.
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According to the survey, 47.8 percent of female voters said they plan to back Biden, while 44.4 percent said they are planning to vote for Trump in November.
Trump, meanwhile, held a 19-point lead (57 percent to 38 percent) among male voters, according to the poll.
The poll also found that Trump may win women voters if Vice President Kamala Harris becomes the Democratic Party's presidential nominee. Biden has faced calls to step aside from the race following his debate against Trump last month, and Harris is viewed as a likely replacement if he chooses to do so.
If Harris becomes the nominee, 44.4 percent said they would vote for Trump, while 44.1 percent said they would back Harris.
Trump's lead across all voters grew to 10 points (49 percent to 39 percent) with Harris as the nominee. His share of voters, notably, still dropped from 50 percent to 49 percent with Harris as the nominee, with more voters saying they would vote for a different candidate or remained undecided about the race.
It surveyed 800 Florida voters from July 15 to July 16, 2024, and has a margin of plus or minus 3.94 percentage points.
Newsweek reached out to the Trump campaign for comment via email.
In 2020, Biden won female voters by only three points (51 percent to 48 percent) in Florida, according to an exit poll from The New York Times. Trump won male voters by 9 points (54 percent to 45 percent), carrying the state by about 3 points (51 percent to 48 percent).
Experts have pointed to Republican gains among Hispanic voters near Miami and the arrival of more conservative transplants from the Northeast and Midwest to Florida for the Republicans' surge in the state, which threatens to keep Democrats out of power if they do not reverse these trends.
Republican Senator Rick Scott is facing a challenge from former Democratic Representative Debbie Mucarsel Powell in the Florida Senate race, but polls suggest Scott remains the favorite. Scott was first elected in 2018, defeating incumbent Democratic Senator Bill Nelson, despite Democratic victories across the U.S. during the midterms.
Mucarsel Powell has emphasized abortion rights in her race.
Despite Republican gains in the race, Democrats are hoping that reproductive rights can galvanize their voters in the state to head to the polls. In April, the Florida Supreme Court issued a ruling allowing the state's abortion restrictions to stay in place while also allowing a ballot question about reproductive rights to appear on the ballot in November.
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