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By James Bickerton
News Reporter
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Donald Trump has been hit by the release of three polls since his June 27 debate against Joe Biden showing a worsening of his performance against the incumbent Democrat—though only one was conducted in full after the debate took place.
During last Thursday's debate, which was hosted by CNN in Atlanta, the 81-year-old Biden appeared at several points to lose his train of thought, sparking fresh concerns about his age and mental agility. According to CNN chief national correspondent John King Biden's performance sparked "a very aggressive panic" within the Democratic party.
In the debate's aftermath the odds of Biden being the Democrats' 2024 presidential candidate rose by nearly 30 percent with one betting website, whilst the odds of Vice-President Kamala Harris winning the 2024 presidential election have fallen sharply with a number of bookies.
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Ipsos surveyed 1,070 registered voters across the U.S. for Reuters on July 1 and 2, and found Biden and Trump were tied with 40 percent of the vote each. This is an improvement in Biden's performance over the last Ipsos/Reuters poll, which put Trump ahead on 41 percent against 39 percent for the incumbent. This survey of 930 registered voters was conducted on June 12.
Notably this survey also found former first lady Michelle Obama would decisively defeat Trump with 50 percent of the vote against 39 percent for the former president, though she has already ruled out running and endorsed Biden.
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The most recent TIPP Insights poll, which was conducted from June 26-28 and released on Tuesday, had Biden ahead of Trump by 43 percent of the vote against 41 percent, with other candidates taking a further nine percent. This was an improvement on Biden's performance versus a previous TIPP Insights survey released in June that had the president tied with his Republican challenger on 41 percent of the vote each, plus 10 percent for other candidates.
Due to the electoral college system Biden could get the most votes overall but still lose to Trump, as Hillary Clinton did in 2016.
Tuesday also saw the publication of a new Bullfinch Group survey, which was the first to put Biden ahead of Trump in the key swing state of Pennsylvania since early March. The poll of 800 registered voters in Pennsylvania, conducted prior to the debate between June 14 and 19, put Biden on 45 percent against 44 percent for Trump.
When approached for comment, Trump campaign spokesperson Steven Cheung sent Newsweek a link to an X post about a post-debate poll by YouGov for Yahoo which put the Republican candidate ahead of Biden by 44 percent against 40 percent, with another 10 percent backing other candidates.
Newsweek also contacted representatives of the Joe Biden presidential campaign for comment via email on Wednesday outside of usual business hours.
However, not all recent polling has been so good for Biden with a Yahoo News/YouGov survey of 1,070 registered voters conducted between June 28 and July 1 putting Trump ahead of Biden with 45 percent of the vote against 43 percent. It also found 60 percent of Americans do not believe Biden is "fit to serve another term as president" against just 24 percent who think he is.
This was an improvement on Trump's performance from a YouGov/CBS News survey of 1,878 likely voters conducted between June 17 and 21 which put the Republican firebrand on 50 percent versus 49 percent for Biden.
Update 7/4/24 2:25 a.m. ET: This story has been updated to note Trump campaign spokesperson Steven Cheung sent Newsweek a YouGov/Yahoo poll putting the presumptive Republican candidate four points ahead of Biden when approached for comment.
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