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By Andrew Stanton
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Republicans have a narrow edge in early voting in a special election for a House of Representatives seat in Florida that appears competitive, according to recent data, despite President Donald Trump carrying the district by 30 points in 2024.
Why It Matters
Florida's Sixth Congressional District isn't ordinarily competitive for Democrats, as it consists of conservative regions along the state's eastern coastline between Jacksonville and Daytona Beach. But polls point to a closer-than-expected race to replace National Security Advisor Mike Waltz on Tuesday as President Donald Trump is facing backlash amid tariffs and cuts to the federal workforce.
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If Democrats can either pull off a victory or even make it close, it could be an early signal of a strong year for Democrats in 2026, when they hope to retake control of the House of Representatives. That would give them a major check on Trump's executive authority.
What to Know
Early voting closed on Friday in Florida, and Republicans held about a 9-point turnout advantage over Democrats in the district, according to data from the Florida Division of Elections.
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Republican Florida state Senator Randy Fine and Democrat Josh Weil are competing in the April 1 election.
A total of 47,403 Republicans turned out during early voting or voted by mail, while 38,107 Democrats did so. An additional 13,766 nonpartisan voters have cast a ballot so far, while 1,659 individuals registered with other parties have voted.
While Republicans have the advantage, how independent voters skewed, as well as if either Fine or Weil were able to pick off a substantial number of registered partisans, will determine how close early voting numbers may be. Republicans have become concerned about whether they'll hold the seat.
This map breaks down Republicans' voter advantage county-by-county in both the Sixth and First districts ahead of Tuesday.
Other voters will head to the polls on Tuesday to make their choice in the race.
Polls show a close race. A St. Pete poll released last week showed Fine leading by only 4 points despite the district's Republican lean. It polled 403 likely voters in the district from March 22 to March 25 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.
Special elections often yield surprising results. They are typically low turnout, so if a party is able to successfully mobilize their voters, they can overperform in areas where they typically struggle. That was the case for Democrats in a Pennsylvania special election in a GOP-leaning Lancaster County district earlier in March.
GOP Has Advantage in Florida's First District
There is another special election in Florida's First Congressional District to replace former Representative Matt Gaetz between Florida's Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis, a Republican, and Democrat Gay Valimont.
Patronis is viewed as being in a stronger position than Fine, as Republicans have a 17-point turnout advantage in the district, according to the Florida Division of Elections.
What People Are Saying
Weil in a statement to Newsweek: "Our campaign has the momentum, and that's reflected in what we've seen in the early vote, because we remain focused on what truly matters to the voters. I am dedicated to protecting Social Security, Medicare and lowering costs, ensuring that our seniors and families have the support they need thrive.I'm grateful for the hundreds of thousands of Floridians and regular Americans who still believe in a better future. It's that grassroots energy that is going to defeat career politician Randy Fine and the huge corporations and special interests that own him and his campaign."
Newsweek also reached out to the Fine campaign for comment via email.
CNN data analyst Harry Entern on Monday: "This is a ruby red district. Donald Trump won it by, get this, 30 percentage points. This race should not be close. It should not be close. But this is a special election, and I want you to take a look at the turnout so far in the early vote. Republicans have just a 9 point advantage. You don't have to be a mathematical genius to know 9 points is way less than 30. Of course, this is just party affiliation."
Randy Fine campaign spokesperson Bryan Piligra previously told Newsweek: "When Randy is victorious on April 1, it will be because of the strength of the Trump agenda and the faith the American people have in him. Randy is grateful for the president's unwavering confidence in him. The voters of CD 6 know they can count on Randy to fight fiercely alongside President Trump to Make America Great Again."
What Happens Next
Other voters in the district will head to the polls on April 1, 2025.
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