Gavin Newsom's Chances of Losing Recall Election, According to Bookmakers

California Governor Gavin Newsom odds of surviving a recall election later this year have improved recently, according to bookmakers Betfair.

The odds of Newsom not being recalled have shortened from 1/8 to 1/10—meaning they deem it increasingly likely Newsom will survive the vote and retain his position.

At odds of 1/10, a person would win one dollar for every $10 they bet—an indication that the bet is very safe.

Newsom's odds of being removed in the recall election meanwhile stand at 5/1, according to Betfair—which operates the world's largest online betting exchange.

The odds of removal had previously been 9/2, so the likelihood of Newsom being removed has fallen.

Political betting is illegal in the U.S. but is popular in Europe and elsewhere.

A spokesman for Betfair, Sam Rosbottom, told Newsweek: "While the recall election will now take place, it will take over 50 percent of the voting public to vote against Newsom for him to be recalled.

"Given that he was elected in 2018 with 62 percent of the vote, he is still in a good position to remain in the job. This explains why his odds of not being recalled at 1/10 are so short."

This represents a significant improvement for Newsom since April, when Betfair told Newsweek Newsom's odds of being recalled were 1/3—meaning his removal was more likely than not.

The Democrat will have to fight a recall election later this year that threatens to remove him as the state's leading politician after campaigners successfully collected enough signatures to prompt such a vote.

Just 43 Californians removed their signatures from the recall petition during the 30-day withdrawal period, leaving more than 1.7 million verified signatures—more than the 1,495,709 required to trigger a special recall election.

The recall election has two parts. First, voters will be asked if they want to recall Newsom. At least 50 percent of voters will have to approve of removing Newsom for the recall to be successful.

Secondly, California voters will be asked to choose a replacement for Newsom from a list of candidates. Newsom cannot run as his own replacement and the winning candidate need only come first. They do not need to win 50 percent of the vote.

However, the winning replacement candidate will only become governor if 50 percent of voters agree to recall Newsom. Recent polls have also shown that Newsom is likely to survive.

Some candidates for the recall election have already come forward, including John Cox, a Republican who ran unsuccessfully against Newsom in 2018, and former Olympic athlete and reality TV star Caitlyn Jenner.

Newsom has criticized the recall petition as a partisan Republican effort.

Newsweek has asked Governor Newsom's office for comment.

Gavin Newsom Speaks in San Francisco
California Gov. Gavin Newsom speaks during a news conference at San Francisco General Hospital on June 10, 2021 in San Francisco, California. Newsom is likely to survive a recall election later this year, according to bookmakers. Justin Sullivan/Getty Images