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By Martha McHardy
US News Reporter
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After months of wavering support and signs of growing disillusionment, new polling suggests Gen Z voters are beginning to drift back toward the Democratic Party.
The latest Pew Research data shows that 49 percent of Gen Z voters lean toward the Democrats, while 43 percent lean toward the Republicans.
That marks a shift from 2024 when more Gen Z voters leaned toward the Republicans than the Democrats for the first time ever, with 47 percent backing Republicans and just 46 percent identifying as Democrats.
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Why It Matters
In the 2024 election, Trump made inroads with young voters, narrowing the Democrats' traditional lead among Gen Z—a group that has typically leaned left in recent cycles. According to AP VoteCast, voters ages 18 to 29 supported Kamala Harris over Trump by just 51 percent to 47 percent. By comparison, in 2020, Joe Biden carried the same age group by a much wider margin, winning 61 percent to Trump's 36 percent.
Now, that shift appears to be reversing among a generation that had showed signs of warming to Trump's populist messaging**.**
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What To Know
In 2020, Gen Z leaned Democratic by an 18-point margin (55 percent to 37 percent), a gap that widened to 32 points in 2021 (63 to 31). Support narrowed slightly over the next two years, with Democrats holding a 17-point lead in both 2022 and 2023 (55 to 38), before collapsing in 2024.
The 2024 shift was widely attributed to economic frustration, discontent with President Biden, and the GOP's increasingly aggressive outreach to younger voters—especially on social media platforms like TikTok, YouTube, and Instagram. But the latest numbers suggest Republicans may have peaked, as Democrats begin to regain ground with a generation that strongly supports issues like climate action, abortion rights, and student debt relief.
The shift comes as Trump's approval rating among Gen Z has fallen to historic lows.
The latest CBS/YouGov survey, conducted between July 16—18 among 2,343 adults, found just 28 percent of voters aged 18 to 29 now approve of Trump's performance, while 72 percent disapprove—a net approval rating of -44. That's down from -20 in early June and -12 in late April. Morning Consult's latest poll, conducted between July 18—20 among 2,202 registered voters, recorded similar numbers: 71 percent of Gen Z disapprove of Trump's job performance, compared with just 24 percent who approve, giving him a net rating of -47.
And the poll shows the sharp downturn is being driven by growing discontent over Trump's handling of the economy, inflation, immigration, and key policy decisions.
Economic frustration remains the dominant factor. Gen Z voters—many of whom are burdened by rising living costs—have turned sharply against Trump on economic issues. In February, he held a net +4 approval on the economy among young voters. By July, that had collapsed to -42. His approval on inflation fell even further, from -10 in February to -46 by mid-July, amid continued price hikes and discontent over tariffs.
Meanwhile, the latest poll showed that nearly half (49 percent) of Gen Z voters now blame Trump's policies for the current state of the economy, while just 14 percent say the same of Biden, and a growing majority—62 percent—believe the economy is getting worse, and 58 percent say they are personally worse off under Trump's second term.
His immigration crackdown has also begun to backfire. After briefly gaining support in March, Trump's immigration approval among Gen Z dropped to -40 by July. While the administration has reduced unlawful border crossings and increased enforcement, many young voters are alarmed by expanded ICE raids and detention centers—especially as broader public sentiment moves in the opposite direction. According to new Gallup polling, only 30 percent of Americans now support reducing immigration, down from 55 percent in 2024. Support for maintaining or increasing immigration has grown across party lines, and 79 percent now say immigration is a "good thing"—a record high that surpasses sentiment during Trump's first term.
Gen Z's disillusionment extends beyond economics and immigration. A growing majority disapprove of Trump's broader agenda: 71 percent oppose his "Big Beautiful Bill Act," which critics say favors tax cuts for the wealthy at the expense of social programs. Meanwhile, 84 percent disapprove of how Trump has handled the Jeffrey Epstein files—the highest disapproval on that issue among any age group.
Back in April, polling analysis by pollster G. Elliott Morris showed that young voters are not particularly fond of Trump's policies, with his immigration and tariffs policies attracting the largest amount of discontent from Gen Z.
Morris argues that Gen Z's shifting political behavior is less about ideological alignment and more about disaffection with the political system itself. As he puts it, "young people weren't very 'Trumpy' to begin with, and they're not particularly prodemocratic now. Instead, they're anti-incumbent."
Rather than being deeply partisan, Morris describes young voters as viewing politics "as a transaction, rather than a contest between ideas." In his view, their vote is less about loyalty to a candidate or party and more about asking, "what have you done for me lately?"
He paints a bleak picture of Gen Z's reality, noting that for many, "the economic future looks out of reach, and it seems like the government isn't doing much here at home to help you, in particular." This fuels what he calls a "scarcity, anti-system, anti-party mindset," where even traditionally left-leaning young voters are willing to turn on Democrats—or Trump—when they feel neglected.
In explaining why Gen Z turned on Trump after briefly supporting him in 2024, Morris writes: "If young people are mostly just elastic, anti-system voters, then the young Trump converts in 2024 aren't really MAGA Republicans so much as stressed-out, ideologically unaware, alienated young adults, in want of a party."
And in his conclusion, Morris sums up the dynamic driving Gen Z's political volatility: "Young people did not move toward Trump in 2024 because they're more MAGA, they moved toward Trump because they're sensitive to economics and don't trust 'the system.' And that's ultimately why Trump has lost them, too."
What Happens Next
Party affiliation data is likely to fluctuate throughout Trump's second term.
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