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By Brendan Cole and John Feng
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German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has said the leadership in Tehran is humiliating U.S. President Donald Trump's administration, the strongest criticism yet by the country at the heart of the European Union, G7 and NATO of the United States' approach to the war in Iran.
Merz had offered qualified support at the start of the joint U.S.-Israeli strikes against the Islamic Republic, saying Berlin also wanted to see regime change in Tehran after Iranian authorities launched a brutal crackdown against protesters.
But with no breakthrough imminent on unblocking the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has essentially held captive, and Germany reeling from the conflict's economic costs, Merz issued his fiercest criticism of the U.S. effort yet.
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"The Iranians are clearly stronger than expected, and the Americans clearly have no truly convincing strategy in the negotiations either," Merz said during a school visit in Marsberg, a town in his home region of Sauerland.
He added, "A whole nation is being humiliated by the Iranian leadership."
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Merz also accused Trump of going into the war without any strategy and warned it could degenerate into a quagmire, like the conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq. He called the war "a pretty tangled situation" that was "costing us a great deal of money."
The Iran war has hurt energy importers, including the European Union, whose members have turned to sources outside the Middle East for oil and gas, such as the U.S. and Norway. Since the start of the war, EU members have had to pay 25 billion euros ($29.2 billion) more for oil and gas. On Tuesday, the cost of Brent crude, the global benchmark, was $108 a barrel.
Susannah Streeter, the chief investment strategist at Wealth Club, told Newsweek on Tuesday that with negotiations at a stalemate, oil prices have ratcheted higher.
"With the ceasefire largely holding, there seems to be an absence of urgency in reaching an agreement," Streeter said. Every day the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, "the higher the costs that filter through supply chains, causing fresh financial pain for companies and consumers."
Germany had previously rejected U.S. calls for NATO to join the conflict, describing it as "not NATO's war," although Berlin has suggested it could play a limited role in securing the Strait of Hormuz—including deploying German minesweepers after the conflict ends.
This followed Trump's March warning that NATO allies could face a "very bad future" if they refused to help secure the critical waterway through which one-fifth of the world's energy transited before the war.
Merz’s characterization of the U.S. will generate lots of heat by those in the U.S. ready to cut ties with NATO or paint America’s historical allies in Europe as disloyal, Michael Butler, politics professor at Clark University in Worcester, Massachusetts, told Newsweek.
The deeper significance of Merz’s comments is that they point to what he and many on both sides of the Atlantic consider a problem in the war with Iran and of U.S. foreign policy—the lack of any clear or coherent strategy, he added.
“Merz is joining a chorus of voices among America’s traditional allies—Canada’s Mark Carney and Poland’s Donald Tusk among them—as well as some within the MAGA movement who in recent weeks have publicly questioned the administration’s motives and carelessness in launching the war,” Butler said Thursday.
“Viewed through this lens, one could see Merz’s comment more as a desperate appeal to a friend that has lost its way, or, perhaps, more pragmatically, as a frustrated leader whose nation is bearing the brunt of rising inflation and a continuing disruption in the world’s energy supply as a direct consequence of the war,” Butler added.
Trump Says Merz 'Doesn’t Know What He’s Talking About'
Trump sharply criticized Merz on Tuesday, saying that the German leader is willing to tolerate a nuclear‑armed Iran. In a post on Truth Social, Trump said Merz “thinks it’s OK for Iran to have a Nuclear Weapon,” adding that the chancellor “doesn’t know what he’s talking about.”
Trump argued that an Iranian nuclear weapon would threaten global security and asserted that his administration is taking steps other leaders “should have done long ago.” His comments come as tensions with Iran continue to shape U.S. foreign policy and as European governments navigate their own approaches to Tehran.
The president also used the post to criticize Germany’s economic performance, saying the country is “doing so poorly, both economically and otherwise.” Merz has not publicly responded to Trump’s remarks, and German officials have not issued an immediate comment.
Iran's Strait of Hormuz Proposal
On Monday, Iran proposed to the U.S. reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending the war, while postponing negotiations on its nuclear program. The proposal would not force Iran to make concessions regarding its highly enriched uranium but would grant more time to discuss these nuclear issues.
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Trump had discussed the Iranian proposal with national security aides and that the U.S. wanted to ensure freedom of navigation through the strait and remove Iran's highly enriched uranium.
The U.S. president had previously described Iran's proposal as "much better" than previous ones but still "not enough."
Axios reported on Monday that Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told Pakistani, Egyptian, Turkish and Qatari mediators in recent days that there was no consensus among Iran's leaders on how to address U.S. demands.
In its assessment on Monday, the Institute for the Study of War said it was unclear whether Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Commander Major General Ahmad Vahidi and his inner circle, who dominate Iranian decision-making, support the new proposal.
The Washington, D.C., think tank wrote, "Iran appears to be attempting to exploit its leverage over the Strait of Hormuz to end the war in a way that removes the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports without Iran having to make nuclear concessions."
On Tuesday, Trump posted on Truth Social that Tehran "has just informed us that they are in a 'State of Collapse.'”
"They want us to 'Open the Hormuz Strait,' as soon as possible, as they try to figure out their leadership situation (Which I believe they will be able to do!)," he added in the post.
Oil Industry Under Pressure
The expanded scope of the U.S. blockade is catching more ships linked to Iran’s heavily sanctioned energy trade and putting its oil industry under immense pressure if it wants to keep up production, according to the latest analysis from commodities experts.
Crude oil, the main source of Iran’s revenue, is mostly loaded at its Kharg Island export hub in the Persian Gulf and sent to customers, including its largest buyer, China, whose refineries are two months away by sea.
Small refineries in northeastern China, known as “teapots,” then have 60 days to pay for shipments, so Tehran will continue to receive money from crude carriers dispatched before the war and before the U.S. blockade of its imports and exports.
However, the Iranian government may face a steep decline in available funds in the weeks after, when an inability to export crude beyond the U.S. blockade line will force it to fill all available storage tanks and cause a slowdown or shutdown of oil wells.
On Monday, oil market analysts at Kpler said the state-owned National Iranian Oil Company had already begun reducing output, a sign that its crude storage was nearing maximum capacity.
Iran may have enough capacity to hold 22 days’ worth of crude production, or 41 million barrels, if it uses all its onshore and floating storage tanks, according to Kpler’s best-case estimate.
The analysts expect Iran’s production to more than halve—from 2.75 million barrels per day to 1.2-1.3 mbd—by mid-May, costing the country up to $200-250 million per day.
“So far, the U.S. blockade appears very efficient. No vessel carrying Iranian oil was able to escape from it. Although the blockade doesn’t choke Iran financially in the immediate term, it comes with the promise of doing so down the line if it is maintained,” Kpler said.
“The fact that Tehran has asked for the blockade to be lifted as a condition to resume negotiating highlights that it is hurting where it hurts,” Kpler said.
On Sunday, satellite photographs of Kharg Island showed two large tankers loading at the terminal, with at least eight other vessels waiting to do the same. Together, they could represent around 20 million barrels of exports, but there’s no guarantee they will reach their destination even if they make it beyond the U.S. blockade line.
The naval blockade against Iranian ports, which began on April 13, was extended to the high seas three days later when the U.S. Central Command said its naval forces would intercept ships suspected of carrying contraband anywhere.
In the current blockade, Navy ships of CENTCOM’s 5th Fleet are hailing Iranian-linked vessels by radio and issuing warnings to stop or turn around.
“Most vessels respond to such a query. If necessary, U.S. warships may use force to enforce the blockade against belligerent (Iranian) or neutral merchant ships to compel compliance….The threat of use of force is sufficient to stop vessels from attempting to breach the blockade, and dozens of vessels have complied,” James Kraska, a professor of international maritime law at the U.S. Naval War College, told Newsweek.
“It appears the U.S. has sufficient naval assets to enforce the blockade indefinitely and also to conduct visit and search to determine the enemy character of ships or their cargo. Since most civilian ships comply, and war risk insurance costs reduce the amount of traffic, U.S. forces may concentrate on the few noncompliant vessels,” Kraska said.
The U.S. Navy has boarded or interdicted at least 10 tankers linked to Iran’s oil trade, according to Newsweek’s tally of public disclosures and reports. The Navy says it has turned around 38 ships.
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