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By Anna Skinner
Associate News Editor
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As newly elected members of Congress arrived on Capitol Hill for orientation on Monday, the results of the midterms are already reshaping the political landscape, including which Republican-held Senate seats could be vulnerable in 2028.
All 435 House seats and a new class of Senate seats will be on the ballot in 2028. Some Senate seats are particularly vulnerable after the midterm elections last week that saw a blue wave sweep through Congress. Democrats won control of the U.S. Senate and House, with several surprising flips in traditionally Republican states contributing to the result, including Democrat James Talarico winning Texas’ U.S. Senate seat and Democrat Annie Andrews winning South Carolina’s. However, several key Senate races remain undecided, including Alaska and Mississippi.
Of the GOP Senate seats up for election in 2028, Democrats stand the best chance of flipping three: Chuck Grassley of Iowa, Ron Johnson of Wisconsin, and Ted Budd of North Carolina.
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“These individuals are in danger for a variety of reasons,” Hamline University professor of political science and legal studies David Schultz told Newsweek on Monday. “If [the GOP] could recruit quality candidates, could something different occur? Possibly, yeah. Trump was right when he said quality candidates matter.”
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Chuck Grassley, Iowa
Grassley, who was first elected to the U.S. Senate in 1980, is 93 years old, which would make him 95 by the time he faces re-election. The longtime Iowa Republican now represents a state where voters just elected Josh Turek, the first Democrat sent to the Senate from Iowa since 2008.
Grassley’s age makes him particularly vulnerable, University of Akron political science professor David Cohen told Newsweek. If Grassley ran for re-election and survived another six-year term, he would be over 100 years old.
“Democrats just flipped the other seat in Iowa this year and will look to Grassley’s seat whether or not he runs again,” Cohen said.
Grassley also poses the biggest retirement risk, although a decision to step down before the end of this year could be viewed as a strategic move for Republicans, since Iowa law allows the governor to appoint a replacement.
“Grassley could resign while Republican Governor Kim Reynolds can still appoint his replacement, rather than leave that power to incoming Democratic Governor Rob Sand,” George Washington University associate professor Casey Burgat told Newsweek. “But Grassley's office has explicitly ruled out a resignation, and I wouldn't expect a wave of senators to sacrifice their own careers simply to give their party a potential electoral advantage two years from now.”
Ron Johnson, Wisconsin
Johnson was re-elected to Wisconsin’s U.S. Senate seat in 2022 by a margin of only 1 percentage point over his Democratic challenger. Johnson previously said he might not run for re-election again.
“It wouldn’t be shocking if Ron Johnson retires in the face of what would surely be another tough campaign in Wisconsin,” Boston College professor of political science Dave Hopkins told Newsweek.
While Wisconsin did not have a U.S. Senate seat up for election this year, the state remained politically divided. Four Democrats and four Republicans won U.S. House seats, while Democrat David Crowley won the governor’s mansion with 54 percent of the vote.
Ted Budd, North Carolina
Ted Budd, a Republican Senator from North Carolina, also faces a tough fight if he runs for re-election.
“North Carolina is a genuine battleground state at this point and that seat will be a juicy target for Dems,” Cohen said.
Budd is one of the most vulnerable senators up for re-election, alongside Johnson, Henrik Schatzinger, a professor of political science at Ripon University, told Newsweek.
“Both won relatively narrow victories in 2022, and both states just delivered substantial Democratic victories,” Schatzinger said.
Budd won his seat in 2022 with 50.5 percent of the vote, a three-point margin of victory. North Carolina’s other Senate seat was up this year, and it was easily won by Democrat Roy Cooper, who secured 58.7 percent of the vote.
Other vulnerable GOP seats
Several experts expressed that other Republican senators up for election in 2028 could also be vulnerable, such as Lisa Murkowski in Alaska; Jerry Moran in Kansas; and Ashley Moody, who just won a special election in Florida.
In Alaska, a highly competitive Senate race between Democrat Mary Peltola and Republican Senator Dan Sullivan remains undecided. Kansas voters just elected Adam Hamilton to the Senate, the first Democrat to represent the state in the upper chamber since 1932. And in Florida, while Republicans largely resisted the blue wave, many congressional races shifted in Democrats’ favor.
What Happens Next
The midterm results could shape how vulnerable Republican senators approach the next two years in Washington as they prepare for re-election in 2028. Those representing competitive states may look to sharpen their focus on issues that resonated with voters this cycle, such as affordability and the economy, while putting greater distance between themselves and unpopular policies or messages from the national party.
While some specific Senate seats come to mind as being vulnerable, University of Florida professor of political science Sharon Austin told Newsweek that she believes all U.S. senators up for election in 2028 are vulnerable.
“This election proved that Democratic candidates can win when Democrats vote,” she said.
Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Samantha Beech and Gray R. Thomas
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