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By Anna Skinner and Anna Commander
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Democrat Josh Turek has won Iowa's U.S. Senate race, defeating Republican Ashley Hinson in a contest closely watched as a measure of political sentiment in the rural Midwest.
Iowa is among several key Senate races unfolding this year as Republicans seek to defend their House and Senate majorities and Democrats look to capitalize on competitive races that could flip control of both chambers in their favor. Hinson, a U.S. representative, and Turek, a state representative, were neck and neck in polls leading up to election night. The election result will help determine control of the U.S. Senate and may offer insight into how voters view issues ranging from agriculture to the economy and health care.
Democrats need a net gain of four seats to win control of the Senate, and the result of this election brings them closer to that goal. Democrats need a net gain of three seats to win control of the House.
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NBC and CNN called the race in Turek's favor Tuesday night.
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Voting Results Thus Far
As of 11:38 p.m. ET, Turek had 50.8 percent of the vote compared to Hinson's 46.1 percent, CNN says. NBC had the same percentages.
What Time Did Polls Close in Iowa?
Polls closed at 8 p.m. Central Time in Iowa on Tuesday night. While election results are trickling in for some races across the Midwest, polls don't close until as late as 11 p.m. Eastern time for Western states, so nationwide results likely won't be available until very late.
By 11 p.m. Eastern time, many key Senate race results will have taken shape, though some contests might still be too close to call. Major news organizations often project winners before all ballots are counted when the remaining vote is unlikely to change the outcome, but some races may not be called on election night.
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Ashley Hinson vs. Josh Turek: What Latest Polling Results Showed
Recent polls have shown a very tight race between the two candidates:
- Echelon Insights: A survey of 403 likely voters between October 16 and 23 gave Turek a two-point lead over Hinson with only days before the election. Of those surveyed, 45 percent said they'd vote for Turek to 43 percent who said Hinson. Seven percent said they planned to vote for Thomas Laehn, the Libertarian candidate, and 3 percent were undecided.
- InsiderAdvantage: An InsiderAdvantage poll of 1,200 likely voters between October 21 and 22 found that 47 percent of respondents planned to vote for Hinson compared to 46 percent for Turek. Three percent said Laehn and 4 percent were undecided.
- YouGov: A YouGov poll conducted between October 6 and October 12 of 2,245 likely voters gave Turek a narrow lead over Hinson at 47 percent to 46 percent, with 4 percent of voters still undecided.
- Marist University: A Marist poll conducted between October 8 and October 11 surveyed 1,100 likely voters, giving Turek a three-point lead over Hinson, at 48 percent to 45 percent, with 5 percent still undecided.
- Emerson College: An Emerson poll surveyed 650 likely voters between October 5 and October 6. Hinson led by two points, at 47 percent to Turek's 45 percent, with 7 percent of those surveyed still undecided.
- CNN/SSRS: A CNN/SSRS poll was conducted between September 29 and October 5 and surveyed 801 likely voters. Hinson led by two points at 45 percent to Turek's 43 percent, with 8 percent saying "neither" and 3 percent saying "someone else."
- Suffolk University: A Suffolk poll surveyed 500 likely voters between October 1 and October 4. Turek held a four-point lead, with 48 percent to Hinson's 44 percent and 2 percent of those surveyed said they planned to vote for Libertarian candidate Thomas Laehn. Six percent said they didn't know who they would vote for.
Why the Iowa Senate Race Is Critical to 2026 Midterm Elections
Democrats are hoping to flip control of both the House and the Senate in this year's midterm elections. Republicans are trying to fight off a blue wave as Trump's approval ratings continue to slide and voters express concerns tied to the economy, inflation, rising fuel costs and the Iran war.
Iowa had been thought to be a safe spot for Republicans, having last elected a Democrat to the Senate in 2008 and to the governor's mansion in 2006. The state also backed Trump in all three of his White House runs, including by 13 points in 2024. But as Democrats have gained momentum, the state became a prime target as one of the four GOP seats they needed to flip—while defending their own—to take control of the upper chamber.
Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here. Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Samantha Beech and Gray R. Thomas
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