...
By Giulia Carbonaro
Senior Reporter
0
Share
Newsweek is a Trust Project member
See more of our trusted coverage when you search.Prefer Newsweek on Googleto see more of our trusted coverage when you search.
Democratic contender James Talarico is within striking distance of Trump-endorsed Ken Paxton, the Republican candidate, in the highly competitive race for the Texas Senate, according to a recent poll.
The 37-year-old Democrat, a lawmaker representing District 50 in the Texas House of Representative and a former public schoolteacher, obtained 43 percent of the vote in a poll conducted by Quantus Insights between June 3 and 4 among 800 likely voters in the Lone Star State, with a 3.5 percent plus or minus margin of error.
Paxton, the 63-year-old Texas Attorney General who beat longtime Senator John Cornyn in last month’s Republican primary, had 45 percent of the vote—taking a relatively modest two-point lead over the younger contender.
Read More on News
These numbers make the race for U.S. Senate the closest race in Texas, while the governor’s, lieutenant governor’s, and attorney general’s races all have one candidate clearly in the lead by further margins.
Texas Republican Governor Greg Abbott leads Democratic contender Gina Hinojosa 49 percent to 41 percent, with 6 percent of likely voters still undecided, according to Quantus Insights. In the race for lieutenant governor, Republican Dan Patrick leads Democrat Vikki Goodwin by a similar margin, 49 percent to 40 percent.
In the attorney general race, Republican Mayes Middleton leads Democrat Nathan Johnson 47 percent to 39 percent, with 9 percent of likely voters still undecided.
...
"Texas remains Republican country. But in the opening stage of the 2026 general election, it is not without contest," the pollster memo reads.
While most statewide races remain firmly Republican, the tighter margin between Paxton and Talarico and the different profiles of their supporters point to what Quantus Insights describes as a deeper, ideological divide within the state, "a contest between two different Texases."
Paxton’s coalition is made up of older voters, men, white voters, rural voters, and the Republican base, the poll found. Talarico’s supporters, on the other hand, are mostly younger voters, urban voters, college-educated voters, Black voters, and swing voters.
"In other words, the Senate race begins as a contest between two different Texases. One is older, more rural, and more conservative. The other is younger, more urban, and more Democratic-leaning," the pollster memo reads.
Prediction Markets Set On Paxton
While the latest poll by Quantus Insights shows the race for Texas Senate as still very competitive, as Talarico is cutting the distance with his Republican rival, prediction markets are overwhelmingly backing Paxton.
As of Saturday morning, 59 percent of those betting on the November 3 election in the Lone Star State on Kalshi are counting on Paxton to win, while only 41 percent believe Talarico will take the seat left by Cornyn.
The two candidates followed the opposite trajectory on the betting platform since January, with Talarico’s perceived chances of winning rising from below 20 percent in January to over 40 percent now, while Paxton was given as the expected winner by over 80 percent of users at the beginning of the year.
Similarly on Polymarket, 60 percent of users are backing the Trump-endorsed Republican candidate, while only 41 percent bet Talarico will win the election.
View 0 Comments
Submit Correction
View Editorial & AI Guidelines