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By Matthew Robinson and Sam Stevenson
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Texas Democrat James Talarico holds a narrow lead over Republican Ken Paxton with every pollster for the first time ahead of the U.S. Senate election in November.
Talarico is now leading Paxton in polls conducted by eight different pollsters. The most recent poll, conducted by Emerson College between September 12 and 14, shows Talarico with a one-point lead on 47 percent to Paxton's 46 percent.
Emerson College's previous poll, conducted between August 9 and 10, was the last time that Paxton held the lead in any poll, on 47 percent to Talarico's 46 percent.
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Texas has not elected a Democratic U.S. senator since Lloyd Bentsen won reelection in 1988.
While Texas has long functioned as a Republican stronghold in federal races, shifting demographic and political dynamics have rendered recent cycles increasingly competitive.
President Donald Trump has thrown his support behind Paxton, calling him the "greatest attorney general in America." He has also repeatedly criticized Talarico, calling him "Talafreako" on social media and in speeches.
Newsweek contacted the Talarico and Paxton campaigns for comment via email on Thursday morning and is awaiting responses.
Why the New Emerson Poll Matters
Emerson’s reversal means that every pollster represented in the current polling set for the Texas U.S. Senate contest has now produced a survey showing Talarico leading Paxton.
Recent results include a four-point Talarico lead in an AARP survey of 895 likely voters conducted August 30 to September 1, with a 3.3-point margin of error, a five-point advantage in a YouGov/Univision poll of 1,000 registered voters conducted August 27 to September 4, with a 3.6-point margin of error, and a seven-point lead in a Texas Public Opinion Research survey of 1,000 likely voters conducted August 21 to 24, with a 3.3-point margin of error.
University of Texas polling conducted August 5 to 13 among 1,218 registered voters gave Talarico a three-point edge; its margin of error was 2.83 points before, and 3.58 points after, accounting for weighting.
An Overton Insights text-to-web survey of 1,167 likely voters, conducted August 24 to 26 with a 2.9-point margin of error, initially put Talarico ahead 44.0 percent to 43.4 percent before producing a 50-50 tie when undecided voters were asked which way they leaned.
A Telemundo/Mason-Dixon survey of 625 registered voters, conducted September 8 to 10 with a four-point margin of error, also placed Talarico ahead, 46 percent to 43 percent.
The pattern contrasts with early summer, when multiple firms still showed Paxton ahead.
A University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll of 1,200 self-reported registered Texas voters, conducted online by YouGov from June 5 to 12, 2026, put Ken Paxton at 43 percent and James Talarico at 42 percent. The survey reported an unadjusted margin of error of plus or minus 2.83 percentage points, or plus or minus 3.47 points after accounting for weighting.
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Hispanic Voters Move Toward Talarico in Emerson Poll
The most consequential movement within the new Emerson survey came among Hispanic voters.
Spencer Kimball, the executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in a press release on the latest poll: "Texas Hispanic voters, who broke for Trump in 2024, now break for Talarico by 15 points, 54 percent to 39 percent. These voters disapprove of the president 53 percent to 41 percent, and 51 percent think the state is on the wrong track rather than the right direction."
That result compares with a larger 19-point Talarico advantage among Hispanic voters in Emerson’s August survey.
At that time, Kimball said 58 percent of Hispanic voters disapproved of Trump and 57 percent disapproved of Texas Governor Greg Abbott.
The subgroup figures should be treated cautiously because demographic samples are smaller than the poll as a whole. Emerson specifically warns that results for groups defined by age, race, education or gender carry larger credibility intervals.
Nevertheless, Talarico’s strength among Hispanic voters has become central to his route through a state in which Republicans made substantial gains with that electorate in the 2024 presidential election.
Paxton’s path, meanwhile, depends partly on maximizing support among Republican-identifying voters and older Texans.
Emerson’s August poll showed a sharp age divide. Voters under 50 favored Talarico 53 percent to 38 percent, while voters over 50 backed Paxton 53 percent to 42 percent.
Other recent polling has identified a persistent gender gap.
The Mason-Dixon survey found Talarico leading women 52 percent to 36 percent, while Paxton led men 51 percent to 39 percent. The same poll showed Paxton strongest in East Texas and Talarico strongest in Central Texas.
Favorability Ratings Present a Challenge for Paxton
The latest Emerson poll found Talarico with a positive net favorability rating. Forty-eight percent viewed him favorably and 42 percent unfavorably.
Paxton’s figures ran in the opposite direction: 40 percent viewed him favorably and 48 percent unfavorably.
That does not automatically translate into the same gap on the ballot, where Paxton trails by only one point, but it illustrates the difference between the candidates’ personal ratings.
Emerson’s August poll had shown the two candidates closer on this measure.
Talarico then had a 44 percent favorable and 41 percent unfavorable rating, while opinion of Paxton was almost evenly divided at 43 percent favorable and 44 percent unfavorable.
The movement suggests that Paxton’s image has weakened in Emerson’s polling even though the ballot result changed by only two points in net terms, from Paxton plus one to Talarico plus one.
The Economy Dominates the Texas Election
The economy was the leading issue in Emerson College Polling’s September survey, cited by 36 percent of voters, including 38 percent of Republicans, 37 percent of Democrats and 30 percent of independents.
The same poll found Republican Governor Greg Abbott leading Democrat Gina Hinojosa by three points, 49 percent to 46 percent, while Talarico led Ken Paxton by one point in the Senate race
What the Campaigns Say
Talarico, a former public-school teacher and Presbyterian seminarian who has advocated for LGBTQ+ rights, has made his Christian faith central to his political identity.
Republicans have targeted his remarks about religion and gender, with Paxton captioning an AI-generated attack ad: "James Talarico is weaponizing faith to sell a radical agenda."
The ad combined remarks from different settings into a synthetic performance and included phrases that were not part of Talarico’s original statements, according to FactCheck.org.
Talarico responded that Paxton was using AI "to mislead the people of this state," telling CBS News: "Every ad that we put out is made by human beings, and we’re very proud of that fact."
Newsweek*’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn* here.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Sam Stevenson and James Debens
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