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By Ewan Palmer
News Reporter
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The chances of Donald Trump dumping his running mate JD Vance before November's election looks slim, according to a betting company.
Polymarket, an online platform where users can place "yes" or "no" bets on the likelihood of world events, is currently offering a 12 percent chance that the Ohio senator will be replaced as the GOP's vice presidential nominee.
Vance was confirmed as Trump's running mate at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee on July 17. Since then, the senator has received ongoing scrutiny about his past comments on women, abortion, and those without children.
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As noted by CNN's senior political data reporter Harry Enten, Vance is also "historically unpopular" as a running mate, with his average -6 net favorable polling ratings the lowest recorded for a vice presidential nominee coming out of a convention since 1980.
Trump's campaign has frequently dismissed suggestions that the former president is considering dumping Vance, saying he is "thrilled" with his choice of running mate.
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While President Joe Biden ended his 2024 campaign and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, he did so before officially becoming the Democratic Party's 2024 nominee.
As noted by Business Insider, the Republican National Committee has a rule that allows the GOP to replace its confirmed vice-presidential nominee in the result of "death, declination, or otherwise."
This move would see the GOP reconvene its convention, or allow a smaller group of Republican National Committee members to decide on the replacement.
There are no rules in place to forcibly remove a vice-presidential candidate from the GOP ticket, meaning Vance would have to voluntarily step aside.
Amy Dacey, a former CEO of the Democratic National Committee, suggested that timing may also mean it is unlikely that Vance will be replaced at this late stage of the campaign.
"I think sometimes what people forget is that people start voting in September," Dacey told Business Insider. "So this is not just a November election. And the worst-case scenario would be for your nominees not to appear on a ballot in a state."
Vance's office has been contacted for comment via email.
On Sunday, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said Trump could opt to replace Vance within "about 10 days" before the deadline to appear on the Ohio ballot expires.
"The addition of JD Vance to this ticket is incredibly a bad choice. I think Donald Trump, I know him, and I think he's probably sitting and watching the TV and every day it comes out Vance has done something more extreme, more weird, more erratic. And I bet Trump is sitting there scratching his head and wondering 'why did I pick this guy?'" Schumer told CBS's Face the Nation.
"The choice may be one of the best things he ever did for Democrats. Now the president has about 10 days ... before the Ohio ballot is locked in. And he has a choice: does he keep Vance on the ticket?" Schumer added.
In response, Trump's communications director Steven Cheung told Newsweek: "President Trump is thrilled with the choice he made with Senator Vance to be his running mate, and they are the perfect team to take back the White House.
"Meanwhile, Democrats are in complete disarray after their coup that forcibly removed Biden from the campaign, proving they are the real threats to democracy. The fact remains that Kamala Harris is weak, failed, and dangerously liberal, and no amount of gaslighting from her moronic, too-online campaign, or idiots like Chuck Schumer, will erase her despicable record."
A presidential candidate having to replace their running mate pick is not unprecedented.
In 1972, Democratic presidential candidate George McGovern originally chose Missouri senator Thomas Eagleton as his potential vice president. Eagleton removed himself from the ticket just 19 days after his confirmation after revealing he had received treatment for depression, including electroshock therapy, and was replaced by Sargent Shriver.
McGovern and Shriver lost to Republican President Richard Nixon and Vice President Spiro Agnew in a landslide in the 1972 election.
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