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By Jesus Mesa
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Prediction markets are increasingly betting that Jeanine Pirro’s tenure as U.S. attorney for the District of Columbia is nearing its end, just as she quietly takes one of the most consequential steps available to a federal prosecutor: convening a special grand jury in Washington.
A Kalshi market now puts the odds of Pirro announcing her departure at 97 percent before September 1 and 94 percent before January 1, 2027, a sharp jump following President Donald Trump’s public break with her over the collapse of the Reflecting Pool vandalism case.
According to three government officials familiar with the matter, Pirro has authorized a special grand jury to be overseen by Steven Vandervelden, one of her closest allies inside the office. Special grand juries are almost never used in Washington, D.C., and legal experts say their creation typically signals that prosecutors are preparing to examine either government officials or sprawling conspiracy‑style cases.
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Unlike ordinary grand juries, a special grand jury can issue a public report naming individuals, even if prosecutors ultimately decline to bring charges. As one expert put it in the document you provided: “Sometimes they can issue a report, which a regular grand jury can’t do.”
The move lands at a moment when Trump has intensified pressure on the Justice Department to pursue cases against his adversaries, and when Pirro’s own standing inside the administration has become precarious.
Pirro’s office has struggled to deliver the kind of prosecutions Trump has demanded. Her team has failed to secure convictions in several cases Trump championed, including an investigation into Jerome Powell, allegations of manipulated crime statistics inside the D.C. police, and charges against six Democratic lawmakers who appeared in a video about rejecting illegal orders.
Last week, Pirro dismissed the felony case against former Olympian David Hearn, saying new Interior Department documents showed the Reflecting Pool damage stemmed from a faulty contractor installation—not vandalism. Trump erupted, accusing her of “folding like an umbrella” and insisting the damage was “100% vandalism.”
CNN later reported that Trump was “furious” and considering removing her, with one source calling her ouster “highly likely.”
Pirro was pictured entering the White House on Monday afternoon, hours after Trump made his “choked” remark.
On Tuesday night, Trump told reporters while en route to Las Vegas that he had not yet “made a determination” on whether Pirro will keep her job.
Newsweek has contacted Pirro's office, the Justice Department and the White House for comment.
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A Special Grand Jury Amid a Political Storm
Officials told the Washington Post that paperwork for the special grand jury was submitted before Pirro dropped the Reflecting Pool case—meaning the decision predates Trump’s public criticism but now unfolds under a spotlight.
Special grand juries typically run for 18 months, can be extended up to 36, and require approval from the district’s chief judge, James E. Boasberg.
They focus on a single case or a cluster of related matters, and any report they issue must meet a “preponderance of evidence” standard—far lower than the threshold required for criminal conviction.
Anyone named in such a report has the right to testify and present witnesses, and a judge must sign off before release.
Trump Breaks With His Own Prosecutor
Trump rejected the explanation that the damage was caused by a faulty contractor installation a day after Pirro’s office dismissed the criminal case.
“I disagree 100% with Jeanine Pirro, the U.S. Attorney for the District of Columbia, on the Reflecting Pool. I don’t know what she was thinking?” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “To me, it was a pure case of VANDALISM, that included the grass, which had a big 86 47 emblazoned in giant letters on it, and other elements of the surrounding area.”
He acknowledged that “there may have been some contractor difficulty” but said, “the major damage was caused by VANDALS!”
According to CNN, Trump and Pirro spoke Saturday about the filing, with one source saying the call “wasn’t pretty.”
The dismissal was a rare moment in Trump’s second term in which one of his political appointees publicly contradicted him. It also undermined a Justice Department case the administration had presented as a key example of holding people accountable for damage to the landmark, which Trump pushed to beautify ahead of the nation’s 250th anniversary.
Interior Secretary Doug Burgum also disputed Pirro’s account, writing on X that his department had provided prosecutors with “expert and eyewitness testimony to the damage done by vandals” along with “every piece of evidence they asked for.”
Speculation Over Pirro's Future
The public split has fueled speculation in Washington that Pirro, a longtime Trump ally and former Fox News host, could soon be forced out.
Journalist Molly Jong-Fast raised that possibility on MS Now, noting that several of the senior officials Trump has removed during his second term have been women, including former Attorney General Pam Bondi, former Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem and former Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer.
When asked for additional comment on the dismissal of the criminal case against Hearn, a spokesperson for Pirro’s office told CNBC that “the motion speaks for itself.”
Attorney Norm Eisen, who represents Hearn, said Trump and Burgum were “attacking Pirro because she admitted what we established in our legal filings all along: Trump’s botched renovation was responsible for the damage, not Davey Hearn.”
While speaking on CNN Monday night, Eisen was asked by anchor John Berman if he anticipates taking legal action against the Justice Department. “Our focus is get the case dismissed, but after that, all options are on the table,” he said.
Eisen told legal analyst Joyce Vance in her Contrarian News Substack that Trump’s criticisms of Pirro “is just prolonging the media cycles, which are not good ones for him or his administration.”
The Reflecting Pool Timeline Explained
Problems emerged within days of the project's completion, as chunks of the new coating began peeling away. Trump blamed vandals, and the National Park Service reported a June 9 incident to the U.S. Park Police, alleging that someone had used a sharp knife or razor to cut the pool's new liner.
Hearn told the Associated Press that he was detained for five hours by National Guard troops and U.S. Park Police after stopping at the pool during a bike ride on June 19. He said he reached into the water to inspect the peeling coating and briefly touched a loose section still attached to the side of the pool before letting go when a park worker told him to stop.
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On July 2, Pirro announced Hearn's indictment at a news conference, calling the damage "an affront to the dignity of our shared history" and accusing him of acting "forcefully and violently." A grand jury charged Hearn with one felony count of destruction of property, punishable by up to 10 years in prison. Three other people were charged with misdemeanor offenses related to the incident.
Last week, Hearn's attorneys asked a judge to release grand jury transcripts, arguing that there had been irregularities in the proceedings. They said a National Park Service official testified that the pool already had damage before Hearn's alleged actions, and that they could not determine how much damage, if any, he had caused. The official also said the same repairs would have been required regardless.
On Friday, prosecutors filed a 20-page motion to dismiss the case, saying newly obtained Interior Department documents showed the damage stemmed from a rushed and faulty installation rather than vandalism. The next day, Trump publicly rejected that conclusion.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jason Lemon, Shakeema Edwards, Anna Commander
Update 8/4/26, 7:05 a.m. ET: Jeanine Pirro's visit to the White House on Monday was reflected, and Norm Eisen's remarks to Joyce Vance added.
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