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By Ewan Palmer
News Reporter
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President Joe Biden could come out on top in Thursday's debate with Donald Trump if he avoids gaffes, remains calm, discusses abortions rights or paints the Republican as a threat to democracy, experts say.
Biden and Trump are set to meet at CNN's studio in Atlanta for the first live presidential debate of the 2024 election cycle. Each candidate is hoping to pull off a performance that persuades undecided and swing voters to his camp ahead of November's election.
Before the debate, Trump raised expectations of the president, whom he has consistently suggested is in cognitive decline and not fit to run for office again. Trump recently told the All-In Podcast that the president would be a "worthy debater," and that he did not want to "underestimate" Biden.
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Trump and his supporters have also pushed the unsubstantiated claim that Biden may be on drugs to help his performance during the 90-minute debate.
Carl Cavalli, a professor of political science at the University of North Georgia, told Newsweek that neither candidate would be able to deliver "a fatal blow" on Thursday, given how divided the electorate is.
Instead, Biden and Trump—both prone to making mistakes while speaking in public—will hope to avoid verbal "gaffes or distracting gestures" that may stick in the mind of voters.
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"One of Biden's goals is very likely to suggest that Trump is a threat to democracy," Cavalli said. "If so, then his best bet is to remain levelheaded while provoking Trump into making curious, questionable, or disturbing comments, and to remind viewers of Trump's comments and actions in the past."
He continued: "It's pretty clear that the Trump team may have made a strategic mistake in continuously pounding on the idea that Biden's mental capacity has diminished a great deal. Such low expectations almost guarantee that Biden will exceed those expectations."
Cavalli added that the best case for Biden is that he "remains levelheaded" and not make any significant mistakes while hoping Trump "loses control and starts" making "wild and inaccurate" statements.
"A 'come on, man' or another 'will you shut up' from Biden, like he did in 2020, may even help. In addition, the more the public is reminded of the Trump presidency and the January 6 attack, the better for Biden. This debate alone won't do that, but it may lay the groundwork for follow-up campaign activity," Cavalli said.
"Best case for Trump is that, contrary to expectations, the rules actually work in his favor," he continued. "The automatic microphone cutoff may actually help insulate Trump from any controversial ramblings. Slipups and memory lapses by Biden would help Trump, too, as they will fit his narrative."
Grant Reeher, a professor of political science at Syracuse University's Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs, said that since most voters are not likely to be swayed by what happens in the debate, Biden should be hoping to "avoid downsides rather than winning through the upside."
"So the strategy I would see for Biden to 'win' is, first, not to lose, and that means getting flustered, appearing to lose track of the conversation, and anything else that plays into the age narrative regarding him," Reeher told Newsweek.
"Biden's biggest strength is to show the contrast in leadership styles, to provoke Trump somehow into going even further over the top in his rhetoric, and through that insert concerns about Trump's mental stability when it comes to things like national security," Reeher added.
"On issues, abortion has seemed to help Democrats, and Biden could invoke concerns about a national limit on abortion access," he said.
Biden has recently said that a vote for Trump is a "vote for a national abortion ban."
Trump has denied the claim, telling the All-In Podcast he "wouldn't support a national ban" if elected, and that he wants to keep the issue of abortion rights "in the states' hands."
Cavalli said that while Thursday night's debate is "not likely" to move the needle much, any shift could prove vital in the neck and neck election.
"The race has been close for months, with Trump often having a narrow lead both nationally and in battleground states," Cavalli said.
"In recent days, Biden has closed that lead. The further we move away from the Trump presidency and from the January 6 attack, the better for Trump. However, debates are major attention-getters," he added. "This debate may bring all that flooding back into the public's consciousness. That's not good for Trump.
Cavalli continued, "On the other hand, if Biden's actions play into the Trump team's narrative about his lack of fitness for the presidency, it could push Trump into a wider lead."
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