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By Anna Commander
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Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is leading incumbent Texas U.S. Senator John Cornyn and Representative Wesley Hunt in the state's Senate Republican primary contest, prediction market Polymarket shows on Friday.
Why It Matters
The 2026 Texas Republican Senate primary has emerged as a focal point in national politics, with major candidates vying for the nomination. The contest, set for March 3, 2026, is widely seen as not only a test of Republican Party unity in one of the nation's largest states but also a bellwether for the party's potential direction amid debates over the economy, President Donald Trump, and immigration policy.
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What To Know
According to Polymarket, Paxton has 62 percent of the potential vote compared to Cornyn's 28 percent and Hunt's 8.8 percent, as of 4:40 p.m. ET on Friday.
Other declared candidates, including Dawn Buckingham and Beth Van Duyne, are below 1 percent. The overall prediction market volume stands at $735,715, reflecting significant public interest and high stakes.
Recent polling data presents a less decisive picture. A co/efficient poll released on December 4 found Cornyn with a narrow lead at 28 percent, Paxton at 27 percent, and Hunt at 19 percent, with 26 percent of voters undecided. The survey of 1,022 likely Republican voters reported a margin of error of 3.07 percent.
A University of Houston and Texas Southern University poll from October had Paxton at 34 percent to Cornyn’s 33 percent, with Hunt drawing 22 percent and 11 percent still undecided.
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What People Are Saying
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton said on X in April: "For years, John Cornyn has betrayed President Trump and the America First movement. Texas deserves better, and that’s why I’m running for U.S. Senate."
Team Cornyn said on X last month: "The media loves the drama, but the scoreboard tells the truth. Senator @JohnCornyn holds a 99% voting record with President @realDonaldTrump. While others chase retweets, Cornyn chases results."
Representative Wesley Hunt said on X on Tuesday: "The support we’ve been receiving, not just across Texas, but from all over the country—has been incredible. It’s humbling, it’s moving, and it’s proof that voters are ready now more than ever for a new generation of leadership. This campaign is about more than a race, it’s about building a movement. And this is only the beginning. Thank you to everyone who is standing with us, lending your voice, and helping carry this message forward."
What Happens Next
With a share of voters still undecided, according to polls, the race is likely to be shaped by additional campaign spending, advertising efforts, and the potential impact of a high-profile endorsement—particularly one from Trump.
Should no candidate win a majority, a runoff will follow in May.
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