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By Anna Skinner
Associate News Editor
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Lake Mead remains only one-third full as officials warn that the reservoir's dangerously low water levels could mean breaching a more than 104-year-old water agreement between seven states.
Western water officials are warning that the 1922 Colorado River Compact, the century-old agreement that governs how water is shared among seven states in the West, could be breached as soon as this year as water levels at Lake Mead and Lake Powell remain strained and negotiations over future water cuts stall.
Arizona water leaders say declining snowpack, shrinking reservoir storage and unresolved disputes over river operations are putting the Upper Basin at risk of failing to meet its long-standing delivery obligations to downstream states.
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Under the compact, the Upper Basin states—Colorado, Wyoming, Utah and New Mexico—must deliver a rolling average of 75 million acre-feet of water over 10 years to the Lower Basin, which includes California, Arizona and Nevada. The delivery is measured at Lees Ferry and enforced largely through releases from Lake Powell to Lake Mead.
But officials say continued depletion has intensified disagreements over how much water should be released annually, with some proposals calling for reductions below the historic 7.5 million acre-feet threshold.
Newsweek reached out to the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, which manages Lake Mead, by email for comment.
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Lake Mead Water Levels
Lake Mead's water levels have recovered slightly from dangerously low marks in 2022, after years-long drought depleted the reservoir and other important water sources across the region. However, despite the slight recovery, current conditions highlight continued pressure on the system. As of Friday, the reservoir stood at 1,065.78 feet above sea level, more than 160 feet below full pool, according to lake-level monitoring data.
The current water level is roughly a foot below what levels were at this time last year and nearly 10 feet below its levels at this time in 2024. However, despite the concern over Lake Mead's fragile state, the reservoir is in much better condition than this time in 2023, when water levels were at only 1,046 feet above sea level. In early February 2022, the lake's levels were higher, at about 1,067 feet, before they endured a steep plummet from March through August of that year, dropping nearly 30 feet in five months.
Despite its slight improvement over the past few years, Lake Mead still remains at low capacity. USBR data shows the lake has a capacity of 26 million acre-feet of water. Recent data from the USBR shows the lake is currently only storing 8.86 million acre-feet, roughly 34 percent of its capacity.
While Lake Mead has recovered modestly from its record lows in 2022, it remains roughly one-third full and firmly within federally declared shortage conditions, limiting the flexibility available to water managers. Meanwhile, recent federal projections indicated that the lake could be at elevation 1,036.5 feet at the end of November 2027, lower than any end-of-month elevation recorded in 2022, when the reservoir was grappling with critically low levels.
With existing operating guidelines for Lakes Mead and Powell set to expire at the end of this year, officials say failure to reach a new agreement could trigger federal intervention and raise the possibility of a compact violation for the first time in its history.
Experts caution that even a strong snow year would do little to reverse long-term declines driven by overuse and warming temperatures, leaving the future of the Colorado River system—and the legal framework that governs it—increasingly uncertain.
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