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By Joe Edwards
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New federal projections for the Colorado River’s two largest reservoirs indicate that Lake Mead’s water level could fall by around 40 feet over the next two years while Lake Powell’s rises by a similar amount.
The Bureau of Reclamation’s September 2026 “most probable” 24-Month Study, under a scenario in which 6 million acre-feet of water is released from Lake Powell in the 2027 operating year, suggests both reservoirs could see notable water level changes. These studies are updated monthly to support Colorado River operations and planning.
Under this scenario, Lake Mead is forecast to fall to an elevation of 1,007.38 by July 2027. Its level is then projected to rise to 1,020.51 by February 2028, before declining to 998.40 feet in August that year. Lake Powell, by contrast, could rise to 3,542 feet in June 2027. After falling in March 2028 to 3,518.08 feet, it is projected to rise to 3,558.44 feet by June 2028.
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Newsweek contacted the Bureau of Reclamation for comment via email.
Why the Colorado River System Matters
The Colorado River runs approximately 1,400 miles, supporting seven states—Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming—as well as parts of Mexico. Tens of millions rely on the river's resources for at least some municipal water, and it also supports hydropower, recreation, fish and wildlife, and millions of acres of agricultural land.
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Lakes Mead and Powell Reached Record Lows
The latest Bureau of Reclamation projections show both reservoirs reaching record lows in August. The agency said the record-low elevations followed a record-low winter snowpack in the Colorado River Basin in 2025-2026. It also said their combined storage was lower than at any point since before Lake Powell began filling in 1963.
The record low at Lake Mead was “discouraging but not surprising," Sarah Porter, director of the Kyl Center for Water Policy at Arizona State University, told Newsweek previously.
"The reservoir will likely recover at least a little this winter, and with very heavy snowpack it could recover a lot, but levels at both Lake Mead and Lake Powell have ratcheted down over the last quarter century and one good winter won’t be enough to stabilize the system over the long term."
As of Tuesday, Lake Powell’s elevation was around 3516.62, according to data compiled by the U.S. Lakes monitoring website. Lake Mead’s elevation was 1038.51 as of Thursday.
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Scientists Warn Against ‘Propping Up’ Lake Powell as Levels Hit Record Low
April Actions Added Water to Lake Powell
In April, the Bureau of Reclamation announced measures to protect Lake Powell and infrastructure at Glen Canyon Dam after projections indicated the lake could drop to levels that threatened hydropower generation without major intervention.
“If Glen Canyon Dam declines below 3,490 feet, water releases would be only through the river outlet works, which could cause operational issues, uncertainty for users, downstream impacts, instability in regional power and water supplies, and a reduction in power generation,” the agency warned at the time.
It said it intended to add up to about 2.48 million acre-feet to Powell through two actions. Firstly, between 660,000 acre-feet and 1 million acre-feet would be released from Flaming Gorge Reservoir between April 2026 and April 2027.
The Bureau of Reclamation also said it would reduce the annual volume scheduled to pass from Lake Powell through Glen Canyon Dam toward Lake Mead by 1.48 million acre-feet, lowering it from 7.48 million to 6 million acre-feet through September 2026.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: John Fitzpatrick and Sam Wilson.
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