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By Suzanne Blake
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Mass deportations coming from President Donald Trump's new immigration policies could lead to widespread labor disruption in several states and lead to significant wage increases across America, according to a new report by Oxford Economics.
Why It Matters
Trump made immigration a central theme of his successful presidential campaign and Americans largely support his mass deportation plans.
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A New York Times/Ipsos poll, carried out from January 2 to 10, found 55 percent of voters strongly or somewhat supported such plans. Eighty-eight percent supported "Deporting immigrants who are here illegally and have criminal records." Large majorities of both Democrats and Republicans agreed that the immigration system is broken.
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What To Know
After Trump instructed U.S. government agencies to prepare to "immediately repel, repatriate, and remove" undocumented migrants to stop the "invasion" across the border, there has already been a large number of deportations, according to Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).
Nearly 1,000 people have been arrested since January 20, the agency said.
ICE officials also told The Washington Post that it would increase its daily arrest goal from a few hundred people to between 1,200 and 1,500 per day.
However, with these new deportation goal ranges, there could be significant ramifications for the labor market, the Oxford research suggests.
The states most likely to be impacted are California, Florida, New Jersey, New York, and Texas. All five rely heavily on foreign workers and may have to change their hiring strategies and salaries if a significant chunk of the immigrant population is no longer available for employment.
Roughly 9 million undocumented immigrants are estimated to be employed in the United States, according to the report.
The agriculture, construction and hospitality industries are especially at risk if mass deportations ensue.
In California, for instance, foreign-born workers who are not citizens make up more than 50 percent of the farmworker population.
If the employee base is substantially reduced, employers would likely have to boost wages in order to draw American-born workers, economists said.
What People Are Saying
Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, said in a statement: "We estimate that there are close to 9 million unauthorized immigrants currently employed in the U.S., with many vulnerable to deportation if it occurs on a wide scale.
"Employers could again be faced with shortages for workers, renewing upward pressure on wages and inflation. Our baseline assumes a sharp decline in immigration due to a steep drop in the flow of migrants coming into the country through restrictions on asylum and refugee programs.
"We think deportations will be limited due to the costs involved, but President Trump's executive orders and subsequent announcements suggest the risk is to the upside."
Paul Beck, a professor emeritus of political science at The Ohio State University, told Newsweek: "Both the agriculture and computer/finance industries would be damaged by deportations in their workforces. The former could be replaced at higher wages equal [to] raised food costs. The latter could be replaced by somewhat less skilled workers, making us fall further behind China and other competitors."
Newsweek has reached out to the White House, the Texas Construction Association and Texas Corn Producers via email for comment.
What Happens Next
Since ICE's daily arrest goal has surged from a few hundred people to between 1,200 and 1,500 per day, more mass deportations could be in the works.
If those undocumented immigrants worked in the United States, their jobs would need to go to someone else, but American-born employees often demand higher wages.
A report from the Joint Economic Committee from late last year found Trump's mass deportation plans would reduce real gross domestic product by as much as 7.4 percent and push prices up 9.1 percent higher by 2028.
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