10
Loading video...
By Tom O'Connor
Deputy Editor, National Security and Foreign Policy
0
Share
Newsweek is a Trust Project member
See more of our trusted coverage when you search.Prefer Newsweek on Googleto see more of our trusted coverage when you search.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's rejection of a 15-point plan by President Donald Trump's Board of Peace to put an end to the war in Gaza is exposing a rift between the two leaders' differing interests ahead of key elections both face in the coming weeks.
Following Netanyahu's decision, Axios cited an unnamed senior U.S. official who linked the move to the Israeli premier's "political needs" as he faces a fateful election on October 27.
But while the White House's reaction has been muted, domestic U.S. support for Israel, its ongoing war against the Palestinian Hamas movement and Washington's current role in the Middle East, particularly the war Trump and Netanyahu jointly launched against Iran in February, continues to plummet.
Read More
Israel Is Making Plans for a Post-America Middle East9 min read
This Map Shows Iran, Israel and Saudi Arabia’s Allies in a New Middle East11 min read
How Iran Is Using War With US to Forever Reshape the Middle East8 min read
The result could be a blow to the administration and its party among a constituency growing more disillusioned about the trajectory of Trump's electoral promise of bringing peace, rather than war, and his relationship with a longtime ally ahead of midterm elections on November 3.
"It makes the administration look weak and basically clueless because what we know now about Netanyahu's political hardships is not new," Yossi Mekelberg, senior consulting fellow with the Chatham House's Middle East and North Africa Program, told Newsweek. "So why publish a plan just to say, 'Oh, now we accept the rejection of it because it's a sensitive time?'"
"It's not for the United States to always look to support Netanyahu in the election, which definitely doesn't serve the Israeli interest, but doesn't serve the American interests either."
...
What Is Trump's Plan?
Trump first announced the plan on July 30, with the Board of Peace describing it as a "historic breakthrough" that would see Hamas lay down its arms and the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) withdraw from Gaza.
Governance of Gaza would be transferred to the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza, a transitional body comprising independent Palestinian experts established in January in line with the U.S.-led peace plan signed by Israel and Hamas last October.
Hamas said last month it had dissolved its government and agreed to hand over power and disarm. Following Netanyahu's refusal, Bassem Naim, a senior official and spokesperson for Hamas, said the group remained "committed to the roadmap, reached with the mediators and representatives of the BOP in Cairo ten days ago."
"Our acceptance of the roadmap, despite all the challenges, reflected a sense of national responsibility upheld by the resistance factions, foremost among them Hamas, in consideration of the interests of the Palestinian people," Naim said in a statement published to X and shared with Newsweek.
"We expect the mediators and the American guarantor to exert pressure on Netanyahu and his government to compel him to abide by the roadmap and prevent him from obstructing the process for domestic political and electoral considerations, and from continuing to undermine the stability and security of the region," Naim said.
In rejecting the deal on Sunday, Netanyahu asserted that the "IDF will not carry out any withdrawal until Hamas is disarmed," to include the surrender of lighter weaponry. He said his administration was in talks on the issue with U.S. counterparts, who "have ideas, some of which are acceptable to us and some of which are unacceptable, and we know how to stand firm against these things."
Reached for comment, the White House referred Newsweek to the Board of Peace, which shared with Newsweek excerpts of Board of Peace Director-General Nickolay Mladenov's interview with Israel's Channel 12.
"Hamas has agreed to implement immediately a cessation of all its military operations, rearmament, training, and armed presence. And on that basis, we have asked Israel to give the process a chance," Mladenov said. "And as the Prime Minister just now said, we're continuing our discussions on this. And I hope that these discussions will lead to a positive outcome for everyone."
Mladenov reaffirmed that the disarmament process includes not only heavy weapons, such as rockets, but also "personal weapons," such as Kalashnikov-style rifles, and pointed to what he believed to be misconceptions regarding characterizations of the plan in Israel.
"I think what many in Israel don't understand is that they believe we have based this whole plan on trust. And we have not done that. That is not the case," Mladenov said. "We have built it up on a process that is verifiable, that is reversible, that at each stage can be stopped, and that we have built it up with a very clear-eyed understanding of what are the challenges ahead."
...
How US Politics Are Changing
With the latest setback, the White House may face a tougher path in convincing domestic audiences as well.
A Pew Research Center poll published in July showed that unfavorable views of Israel have risen from 43 percent in 2022 to 62 percent this year. An earlier survey released in March showed confidence in Netanyahu has dropped to 27 percent from 32 percent last year.
While Democrats have traditionally been more critical than Republicans toward Netanyahu, the latest figures show Republicans now having a more mixed outlook, with 45 percent having some degree of confidence in him, while 44 percent have little or none.
Supporters of Trump's signature MAGA movement have also been some of the most critical.
As figures like New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani and Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed of Michigan represent electoral success for a progressive wave criticizing Israel from the Democratic Party's left-wing, former Trump supporters such as conservative commentator Tucker Carlson, Republican strategist Steve Bannon and former Georgia Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene are among those launching attacks on the administration from the right over its Middle East policy.
"We see opinion poll after opinion poll, the decline in support towards Israel, the increased support for Palestinians," Mekelberg said. "It's maybe sometimes oversimplistic the way people put the questions and as a result answering the question. But this is the trend."
"And yes, when [Trump] is attacked from both MAGA and the progressives, there might be a price in the ballot box for this," he added.
Already, surveys indicate that Trump's pre-midterm approval rating lags behind any modern president, with Republican hopefuls polling behind Democratic challengers in certain races previously thought to be easy wins for the right.
And while Israel is far from the only issue on the ballot, Netanyahu's presence looms large as he contends with gaps in his own prospects to extend his term as Israel's longest-serving premier.
"Netanyahu's concerns over the Board of Peace framework in Gaza—similar to his concerns regarding other "hot" theaters in the region—derive mainly from fear that Israel's independent agency to address threats to its national security will be constrained and subcontracted to less committed foreign forces," Shalom Lipner, non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council's Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative who has advised several Israeli prime ministers, told Newsweek.
"That vulnerability casts a supremely negative light on his unfulfilled pledges to deliver victory over Israel's enemies, coming precisely as he wages an uphill battle for reelection," Lipner said.
The situation puts Trump in a tough spot as well, as he simultaneously strives to find a solution to the ongoing war with Iran while being denied a potential win on Gaza. With little sign of a breakthrough, Lipner argued the two men may ultimately find themselves on a collision course.
"Having acceded now to Netanyahu's demand that Israel not begin withdrawing from Gaza until Hamas disarms fully, Trump finds himself before the dubious fate of relying upon the goodwill of a terrorist group in order for the deal to advance," Lipner said. "That predicament sets the stage for an almost inevitable showdown between the U.S. and Israel, when Trump returns to compel Netanyahu into facilitating progress of a stalled process."
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jason Lemon and Gray R. Thomas
View 0 Comments
Submit Correction
View Editorial & AI Guidelines