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A strong El Niño expected to persist through winter could help produce milder conditions across much of the United States while directing more rain and snow toward parts of the West and South, according to the Old Farmer’s Almanac.
The publication said unusually warm water across the equatorial Pacific can alter the jet stream, changing the routes taken by storms, cold air and precipitation over North America. It said its 2026-2027 forecast reflects some patterns commonly associated with strong El Niño winters, although the Almanac stressed that the climate phenomenon is only one factor shaping the season.
Meanwhile, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center said in its August outlook that El Niño was already present and strengthening. It placed the probability of a very strong event during fall and winter at more than 90 percent, with a 69 percent chance that its October-December three-month strength would exceed that of previous events dating to 1950.
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What Is a Super El Niño?
El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, a recurring Pacific climate pattern that can affect weather worldwide. Its counterpart, La Niña, is the cool phase of the cycle.
Typical El Niño effects can include stormier weather across the Southern U.S., drier conditions in some northern areas and changes in hurricane activity.
"Super El Niño" is not a formal NOAA classification. It is commonly used to describe an exceptionally strong event.
What the Old Farmer’s Almanac Says
"The onset of an El Niño certainly plays a role in developing our long-range weather forecasts," Old Farmer's Almanac senior editor Tim Goodwin told Newsweek. "When evidence pointed to an El Niño developing during the warm season and expected to continue through this winter, we had to account for that in our forecasting as it can impact weather patterns across the globe, including North America."
The Almanac expects a predominantly mild winter, with near- or above-normal temperatures across much of the country. Exceptions include an area running from central New England through the Appalachians and into the Ohio Valley, where below-normal temperatures are forecast.
It forecasts wetter-than-normal conditions across much of the West and portions of the South, Midwest and Florida. Above-normal snowfall is projected in parts of the Northeast and Appalachians, the Intermountain West, Pacific Northwest and Alaska. The Pacific Southwest is expected to be warmer and wetter, with near- to above-normal mountain snowfall.
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Where NOAA and the Almanac Agree
Forecasts from NOAA and the Almanac share some broad signals for the season, particularly across the Northern U.S. and parts of the West. NOAA favors above-normal temperatures along the northern tier, with probabilities exceeding 50 percent from the Pacific Northwest to the Northeast. The Almanac likewise predicts above-normal temperatures in the Pacific Northwest, Upper Midwest, Lower Lakes and northern Northeast.
Both also indicate wetter conditions in coastal parts of the West: NOAA places the probability above 50 percent across much of coastal California and neighboring southern Arizona, while the Almanac forecasts above-normal precipitation in its Pacific Southwest region and the Pacific Northwest.
The Almanac relies on a proprietary forecasting formula that emphasizes solar cycles and historical weather patterns, while NOAA’s official outlooks draw primarily on peer-reviewed dynamical and statistical climate models, along with established measures of forecast skill.
What Happened During Previous Strong El Niño Winters?
A 2023 NOAA review of the seven strongest El Niños since 1950 found that most brought wetter-than-normal winter conditions to parts of the West Coast and Southern U.S., particularly the Southeast. However, outcomes differed: the 2015-2016 and 1957-1958 winters were drier than expected in some locations.
California experienced heavy rain, flooding and landslides during the powerful 1982-1983 and 1997-1998 events. NOAA cautions that strong El Niños do not guarantee similar results; some other strong episodes produced only modest precipitation surpluses or average-to-dry conditions in the state.
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Which States Could Feel the Biggest Effects?
In terms of snow*,* Crystal Egger, meteorologist and president of Monarch Weather Consulting, told Newsweek that California, Nevada, Utah, Colorado, New Mexico and Arizona are among the states that may see increased snowfall in the months ahead.
"Historically, strong El Niño winters tend to favor a wetter storm track across the southern tier of the U.S.," said Egger. "That can translate to above-average snowfall across parts of the southern and central Rockies and the higher elevations of the Southwest."
Egger added that, on the flip side, El Niño usually brings warmer conditions to the northern tier of the country, including parts of the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies and Upper Midwest, which can reduce the opportunities for precipitation to fall as snow.
Expect NOAA's full Winter 2026–27 Outlook around November 19 at about 8:30 a.m. ET. There will, however, be earlier versions and indications this month and in October that cover portions of winter.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: John Fitzpatrick and James Debens.
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