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Sam Stevenson

By Sam Stevenson

Associate News Editor

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Democrats appear to be gaining momentum in the battle for control of Congress, with a leading election forecaster shifting 13 House races and one Senate race in their direction less than four months before voters head to the polls.

The University of Virginia's Crystal Ball moved ratings in 14 congressional contests toward Democrats on July 30, citing a political environment that continues to favor the opposition party ahead of the 2026 midterms.

The changes underscore growing Republican vulnerabilities as President Donald Trump's approval rating remains weak and Democrats maintain an advantage in national House polling.

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Several previously Republican-leaning House districts are now considered Tossups, while Democrats are seen as increasingly competitive in districts Republicans had hoped to hold comfortably.

Why It Matters

Midterm elections historically present challenges for the party occupying the White House, and recent polling suggests 2026 is following that pattern.

Democrats need only a modest net gain to reclaim the House majority, while Republicans are defending a map that has become more competitive despite favorable redistricting changes earlier in the cycle.

Crystal Ball Shifts Toward Democrats

The University of Virginia Center for Politics' Crystal Ball updated its ratings on Thursday, moving 13 House races in Democrats' favor while also upgrading Georgia's Senate race from Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic.

The changes do not amount to a wholesale revision of the forecast.

Crystal Ball still says Republicans have a viable path to retaining control of the House.

However, the update reflects what analyst Kyle Kondik described as a growing mismatch between the site's seat-by-seat ratings and its broader expectation that Democrats remain favored to win the chamber.

Before the changes, Crystal Ball rated 213 seats as Safe, Likely or Lean Republican, compared with 207 that were Safe, Likely or Lean Democratic, alongside 15 Tossups.

Following the revisions, Republicans now hold 208 seats that lean their way, Democrats 207, and the number of Tossups has expanded from 15 to 20.

Kondik said his team's "overall topline assessment is basically unchanged," with Democrats still favored to flip the House while Republicans retain a plausible route to holding on.

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Key Seats Move Into Toss-Up Territory

Three districts previously rated Lean Republican are now classified as Tossups, highlighting what Crystal Ball sees as the most competitive House battlegrounds of the cycle.

Those districts are:

Lawler and Bresnahan were already viewed as potentially vulnerable incumbents.

North Carolina's 11th District was also downgraded after Edwards posted weak fundraising numbers and faces scrutiny over an ethics investigation, according to the analysis.

Two Democratic districts have moved from Lean Republican to Toss-Up:

Republicans Face Growing Concerns in Other Districts

Several other Republican-held districts were moved closer to competitiveness even though they remain in the GOP column.

Ohio's 7th District, represented by Representative Max Miller, was downgraded from Likely Republican to Lean Republican.

Crystal Ball cited allegations made by Miller's ex-wife, Emily Moreno, allegations that Miller strongly denies, alongside reports of concerning internal polling.

Texas' 15th District also shifted from Likely Republican to Lean Republican.

Democrats are optimistic about singer Bobby Pulido's challenge to Representative Monica De La Cruz in a heavily Latino South Texas district.

Meanwhile, Colorado's 4th District, represented by Representative Lauren Boebert, moved from Safe Republican to Likely Republican.

Crystal Ball pointed to unusually strong fundraising by Democrat Eileen Laubacher and Boebert's history of running behind typical Republican performance in the district.

South Carolina's open 1st District was similarly downgraded from Safe Republican to Likely Republican.

Stock image: Bilbao, Spain - February 17, 2015: Someone wearing red sneakers chooses between democrats and republicans.

...

Democratic Incumbents Look More Secure

While much of the focus was on Republican vulnerabilities, several Democratic-held districts also became safer for the party.

Kansas' 3rd District, held by Representative Sharice Davids, and Connecticut's 5th District, represented by Representative Jahana Hayes, both moved into the Safe Democratic category.

New Jersey's 9th District and New York's 19th District were upgraded from Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic.

Crystal Ball argued that, despite isolated Republican opportunities, the current national environment makes it difficult to view these districts as realistic GOP pickup targets.

Georgia Becomes a Stronger Democratic Hold

Alongside the House revisions, Crystal Ball moved Georgia's Senate contest between incumbent Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff and Republican Representative Mike Collins from Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic.

The upgrade reflects growing confidence in Democratic prospects and reinforces the broader trend of an increasingly difficult political environment for Republicans heading into the midterms.

Polling Environment Continues To Favor Democrats

The rating changes come as most national indicators continue to lean toward Democrats.

An Emerson College survey conducted July 19-20 among 1,100 likely 2026 voters found Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot by 53 percent to 42 percent, an 11-point advantage, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.

Democratic support has steadily increased over the past year, climbing from the mid-40s in summer 2025 to a high of 53 percent in July 2026, while Republican support has remained largely stuck in the low 40s.

According to Crystal Ball's analysis, Trump's approval rating remains around or below 40 percent in major polling averages, while generic congressional ballot surveys generally show Democrats holding a lead of between five and six points nationally.

Polling averages currently place Democrats in a position comparable to a modest midterm-wave environment, though not yet at the level seen before the party's strong 2018 performance.

Democrats appear to be benefiting from an enthusiasm gap among some Republican voters, although Democratic gains have not fully translated among voters who only somewhat disapprove of Trump, a July survey suggests.

One recent Pew Research Center poll, conducted from July 6 to July 12, 2026, surveying 3,554 registered voters, with a plus or minus 1.9 percent margin of error, found Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot by 43 percent to 37 percent.

Pew's report indicated that voters who only "somewhat" disapproved of Trump were evenly split in their congressional preferences, suggesting Democrats may still have room to grow.

Why Republicans Still Have a Path

Despite the increasingly favorable environment for Democrats, Crystal Ball stopped short of predicting a Democratic landslide.

The report outlined several scenarios that could allow Republicans to keep the House, including Democrats nominating weaker candidates in key races, Republicans benefiting from superior outside spending and campaign resources, and Democratic gains being concentrated in already blue areas rather than in the districts that will ultimately decide control of Congress.

Still, Crystal Ball's current forecast envisions Democrats winning a House majority in the low-to-mid 220-seat range, a projection that would be enough to put the chamber back under Democratic control after the November elections.

Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Matthew Robinson and James Debens

Update 07/31/26 10.15 a.m. ET: The headline on this article was updated.

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