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By Tyler Everett
Sports Betting Editor
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The Week 16 slate in the NFL is loaded, starting with a must-see Thursday Night Football matchup between the Seahawks and the Rams in the NFC West.
Other highlights this weekend include two division matchups on Saturday (Eagles-Commanders and Bears-Packers), followed by a handful of must-see games on Sunday, including Bucs-Panthers, Jaguars-Broncos and Patriots-Ravens.
Below, let's see if we can stay above .500 and carry some momentum into the second-to-last weekend of the regular season.
Early NFL ATS Picks YTD Record: 119-104-2
- Week 1: 7-9
- Week 2: 9-7
- Week 3: 9-7
- Week 4: 6-10
- Week 5: 8-6
- Week 6: 10-5
- Week 7: 11-4
- Week 8: 3-11 🤡🤡🤡
- Week 9: 9-5
- Week 10: 8-6
- Week 11: 6-8-1
- Week 12: 8-5-1
- Week 13: 8-8
- Week 14: 8-6
- Week 15: 9-7
All odds below via DraftKings; all kickoff times ET
Rams at Seahawks (-1.5) -- Thurs., 8:15 p.m. (Prime Video)
Pick: Rams +1.5
In a matchup that will likely decide who earns the 1-seed in the NFC, Seattle (11-3) is looking to avenge a close loss to the Rams (11-3) back in Week 11.
As tempting as it is to take the Seahawks at home, especially given that they nearly beat L.A. despite four turnovers in the first meeting, I can't resist taking the Rams at +1.5 against a Seattle squad that has been up-and-down offensively over the last few weeks.
Eagles (-6.5) at Commanders -- Sat., 5 p.m. (FOX)
Pick: Eagles -6.5
With Jayden Daniels officially out for the season, the Commanders (4-10) will need their running game to lead the way down the stretch. Washington is coming off a road win over the Giants last Sunday, but this team is 1-8 over the last nine weeks, with five of those losses by at least 21 points.
The Eagles (9-5) snapped a three-game losing streak with last week's blowout win over the Raiders, and I expect this team to finish the regular season strong, especially if starting O-linemen Landon Dickerson and Lane Johnson and/or star DT Jalen Carter -- all of whom are listed as questionable -- are back in action.
Packers at Bears (-1.5) -- Sat., 8:20 p.m. (FOX)
Pick: Bears -1.5
Green Bay (9-4-1) is dealing with multiple key injuries, none bigger than star linebacker Micah Parsons' season-ending torn ACL. The Packers will also be missing starting DT Devonte Wyatt, who is on IR, while safety Evan Williams and three key offensive starters -- wide receiver Christian Watson, running back Josh Jacobs and right tackle Zach Tom -- are questionable.
Chicago (10-4) has some injury concerns of its own, but Caleb Williams and Co. are much closer to full strength than their NFC North rivals. Backing Williams to outduel Jordan Love feels risky, but I like the Bears to pull out a huge win at home over a rival that has won 17 of the last 19 meetings between these teams.
Buccaneers (-3) at Panthers -- Sun., 1 p.m. (FOX)
Pick: Panthers +3
The NFC South is up for grabs entering Week 16, and Sunday's battle between the 7-7 Bucs and 7-7 Panthers will go a long way in deciding who wins this division.
Both Tampa Bay and Carolina were upset last weekend, which means this game and the rematch in Week 18 will determine a playoff spot. The Bucs are reeling, with a 2-6 record in their last eight games, while the Panthers have alternated wins and losses over their last seven games.
I expect this one to come down to the wire, so I'll take the Panthers at +3 for now. Keep an eye on Carolina's injury reports on Thursday and Friday, though, as four offensive starters (including top wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan) were listed as questionable as of Thursday morning.
Bills (-10) at Browns -- Sun., 1 p.m. (CBS)
Pick: Bills -10
After double-digit favorites went 3-1 ATS in Week 15 (the Eagles, Jags and Niners all covered spreads of at least 11 points, while Seattle narrowly avoided an upset vs. the Colts), will backing heavy favorites once again pay off this weekend?
Buffalo (10-4) might struggle with Cleveland (3-11) early, but unless the Browns -- who have turned the ball over nine times in the last four weeks -- can suddenly play turnover-free ball, I expect the Bills to eventually pull away with a double-digit win.
Chargers at Cowboys (-2.5) -- Sun., 1 p.m. (FOX)
Pick: Chargers +2.5
The Chargers (10-4) keep winning despite arguably the worst pass-blocking in the league. I nevertheless think they have a real chance to pull out another ugly win on Sunday.
Dallas (6-7-1) remains a potent offensive team, but it just gave up 34 points to the Vikings and has struggled on defense each of the last three weeks. With that in mind, I like L.A. to cover, at the very least -- and an upset by a Chargers team that has won six of its last seven games would not surprise me at all.
Chiefs (-3) at Titans -- Sun., 1 p.m. (CBS)
Pick: Chiefs -3
Without Patrick Mahomes, it's hard to know what to expect from Kansas City, which is 6-8 and has been eliminated from the playoffs. I'm not bullish on Gardner Minshew and the Chiefs down the stretch, but right now, I'm leaning toward Kansas City bowing up this weekend.
The Titans (2-12) have recently shown signs of life offensively, but I'm not quite ready to back them against the Chiefs. All bets are off if Kansas City is without DL Chris Jones, LB Leo Chenal and/or CB Trent McDuffie (all of whom are questionable as of Thursday morning), though. If there's a play I do feel good about in this game, it's the over at 37.5.
Bengals (-4.5) at Dolphins -- Sun., 1 p.m. (CBS)
Pick: Bengals -4.5
Miami (6-8) was widely expected to make a quarterback change this week, but raise your hand if you were expecting Mike McDaniel to turn to seventh-round rookie Quinn Ewers instead of presumed backup Zach Wilson.
The Dolphins leaning on their running game and keeping this one close wouldn't totally shock me, but let's not overthink this one ... Coming off an ugly loss to the Ravens, I expect a bounce-back performance from Joe Burrow and the Bengals, who should be able to win this game by at least a touchdown in Ewers' first career start.
Jets at Saints (-4.5) -- Sun., 1 p.m. (CBS)
Pick: Jets +4.5
Tyler Shough and the Saints (4-10) have had their moments in recent weeks, upsetting Tampa Bay on the road in Week 14 and taking down the Panthers twice, including last Sunday.
I like New Orleans to beat the Jets (3-11) this weekend, but I'm not quite sold on the Saints as 4.5-point favorites, not even against Brady Cook and the Jets.
Vikings (-3) at Giants -- Sun., 1 p.m. (FOX)
Pick: Vikings -3
Minnesota (6-8) has gotten two of the best performances of JJ McCarthy's career over the last two weeks. This Sunday, even if McCarthy comes back down to earth, the Brian Flores-led defense should be able to force Giants rookie QB Jaxson Dart into enough mistakes for the Vikes to win their third game in a row.
The Giants (2-12) will likely keep this one close, but I don't see this team ending its eight-game losing streak.
Jaguars at Broncos (-3) -- Sun., 4:05 p.m. (FOX)
Pick: Broncos -3
I don't love the idea of betting against either the Jaguars (10-4) or the Broncos (12-2) right now. So, if there's a game to steer clear of this weekend, it's probably this one.
Denver emphatically showed last week that it can beat anyone, including playoff contenders, erasing a 23-14 deficit in a statement victory over the Packers.
The Jags have been impressive in their own right throughout an ongoing five-game winning streak, but I trust Patrick Surtain II and the excellent Denver defense to get enough stops to secure another close one at home.
Falcons (-3) at Cardinals -- Sun., 4:05 p.m. (FOX)
Pick: Falcons -3
Backing Kirk Cousins and the Falcons (5-9) on the road feels a bit risky, even after Atlanta's stunning comeback win over the Bucs in Tampa last Thursday night.
But I like this team just enough to trust it to cover on the road on Sunday, especially if WR Drake London returns from injury and/or it can do a better job getting out of its own way after committing a staggering 19 (!) penalties for 125 yards last week.
Arizona (3-11) has given up at least 40 points four times in the last six weeks, including a total of 38 second-half points over the last two weeks.
Steelers at Lions (-7) -- Sun., 4:25 p.m. (CBS)
Pick: Steelers +7
Detroit (8-6) and Pittsburgh (also 8-6) are two of the most intriguing teams in the league entering Week 16. Neither has much room for error as it seeks a playoff berth. For the Lions, a loss this weekend would all but eliminate them from the NFC Wild Card hunt.
The Steelers were impressive in their Week 15 win over the Dolphins, but it's hard to envision Aaron Rodgers and this offense outscoring Jared Goff and the Lions at Ford Field. That being said, seven points is a big number for the Lions to be laying, especially given their undermanned secondary's recent struggles.
Raiders at Texans (-14.5) -- Sun., 4:25 p.m. (CBS)
Pick: Texans -14.5
A couple of weeks ago, I would have had a tough time taking the Texans (9-5) to cover a spread this substantial, no matter the opponent. But Houston's offense finally came to life last Sunday.
In Week 16, this unit has a favorable matchup against a Raiders team that has lost four of its last five games by at least 14 points, including a 24-10 loss at home to the 3-11 Browns.
Whether it's Geno Smith or Kenny Pickett under center for Vegas on Sunday, a romp by the Texans shouldn't surprise anyone.
Patriots at Ravens (-2.5) -- Sun., 8:20 p.m. (NBC/Peacock)
Pick: Patriots +3
New England (11-3) unraveled down the stretch last Sunday in a close loss to Buffalo, but to me, the Patriots are too good to be catching 3 points against a talented but flawed Ravens squad. Baltimore (7-7), on the other hand, had one of its best performances of the season last Sunday, shutting out Joe Burrow and the Bengals in a crucial 24-0 victory.
Concerning as the Pats' play in the second half was last Sunday, I still like them to at least keep Sunday night's game close.
49ers (-6) at Colts -- Mon., 8:15 p.m. (ESPN/ABC)
Pick: 49ers -6
San Francisco (10-4) has quietly won four in a row. Another victory on MNF would keep this team's hopes for the top seed in the NFC alive.
Philip Rivers and the Colts (8-6) deserve all they love they have received this week for hanging with the Seahawks in Seattle, but I don't think Indianapolis is going to score enough against Robert Saleh's D to keep this a one-score game for 60 minutes.
The Niners' offense dealt with a ton of injuries early this season. But with just about every weapon at Brock Purdy's disposal healthy, San Francisco should be able to follow up its best offensive performance of the season with another strong showing.
It's worth noting here that the 49ers have not only won their last four games, but easily covered in three of them before either pushing last Sunday (or barely covering, depending on when and where you bet on them).
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