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By Sam Stevenson
Associate News Editor
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Republican John Sununu and Democrat Chris Pappas won their respective primaries on Tuesday, setting up a New Hampshire Senate contest that recent polling shows could be close.
The Associated Press has called the Democratic primary for Pappas, with an estimated 89 percent of the vote counted, and the Republican primary for Sununu, with an estimated 85 percent counted.
On November 3, New Hampshire voters are set to choose a successor to retiring three-term Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen, and the open seat could influence control of the U.S. Senate.
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The RealClearPolling average puts Pappas 2 points ahead of Sununu in the general election, while prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket price a Democratic victory at 83 percent.
Though forecasters currently give Democrats the advantage, New Hampshire's political history offers encouragement to both nominees.
Republicans have not won one of the state's Senate seats since 2010, but Granite State voters remain willing to split their tickets: In 2024, they elected a Republican governor while backing then-Vice President Kamala Harris in the presidential race.
Newsweek contacted the Sununu and Pappas campaigns by email for comment on Wednesday morning.
Why It Matters
Republicans see Sununu—who previously held the seat, has one of the state's best-known political names and received President Donald Trump's endorsement—as a chance to break the GOP's losing streak in New Hampshire Senate elections.
Democrats counter that the state has resisted Trump in presidential contests and that the broader political environment favors Pappas.
Polling Shows NH Senate Race Could Still Move
A University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll conducted August 20 to 24 among 1,878 likely voters put Sununu at 45 percent and Pappas at 43 percent. Its margin of error was plus or minus 2.3 percentage points, meaning the Republican's lead was within the survey's sampling error.
Another survey taken almost simultaneously pointed the other way.
Saint Anselm College polled 1,411 likely voters online from August 17 to 18 and found Pappas ahead 48 percent to 41 percent. That poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 percentage points.
An earlier Emerson College Polling survey, conducted March 21 to 23 among 1,000 likely voters, found a virtual tie: 45 percent for Pappas and 44 percent for Sununu, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.
Taken together, the results suggest Sununu has a plausible path but no durable lead.
The RealClearPolling average covering March 21 through August 24 placed Pappas at 45.3 percent and Sununu at 43.3 percent, a Democratic edge of 2 points.
The electorate also contains sharp demographic crosscurrents, with Emerson College Polling Executive Director Spencer Kimball saying in a news release that women favored Pappas by 9 points and men backed Sununu by 6.
Voters younger than 40 supported the Democrat by 23 points, while those in their 50s and 60s preferred the Republican by 12, according to Emerson's survey.
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Polling, Markets Favor Pappas
Close vote shares do not automatically translate into equal winning chances.
Prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket are pricing a Democratic victory at 83 percent, with the Republican side at 17 or 18 percent.
Prediction markets can react quickly as traders absorb polling, campaign developments and the political environment. Unlike a single survey, their price represents a collective judgment about the eventual winner rather than an estimate of today's vote.
Market prices can be moved by limited liquidity, and participants may share the same assumptions. So an 83 percent price is not a guarantee. It means traders regard a Democratic victory as substantially more likely.
Traditional forecasters have reached a similar conclusion.
As of September 8, Decision Desk HQ rated New Hampshire "Likely Democratic," giving Democrats a 78 percent probability of winning.
Cook Political Report classified the race as "Lean Democratic," describing that category as competitive but with one party holding an advantage.
Two Familiar Candidates, One Open Seat
Pappas, first elected to the House in 2018, is trying to keep the seat in Democratic hands.
He comfortably turned back a late challenge from medical scientist Karishma Manzur, a member of the Democratic Socialists of America who had gained ground during the closing stretch of the campaign.
At the time of writing, Pappas had 65 percent of the vote to Manzur's 32.7 percent, according to AP.
Sununu, who served in the Senate from 2003 to 2009, is the son and brother of former New Hampshire governors. At the time of writing, he led former Ambassador Scott Brown 68.6 percent to 26.6 percent.
Both the Pappas and Sununu campaigns have already framed the race around Washington influence.
In an advertisement, Pappas accused his opponent of siding with pharmaceutical and insurance interests while in Congress before going to work for them and presented himself as a lawmaker "fighting to lower costs." Republican groups, meanwhile, have attacked Pappas over taxes.
Alex Latcham, the executive director of the Senate Leadership Fund, a Republican-aligned super PAC, said in a statement that the organization would promote Sununu's "positive vision for New Hampshire" while challenging the Democrat's record.
Democratic strategist Lauren French called Republican confidence in the state "wish-casting," although she acknowledged the contest would be competitive, according to NBC News.
Trump’s Picks Win as Shaheen Survives Nail-Biter
Tuesday also provided two additional primary-season victories for Trump.
Sununu, Trump's endorsed Senate candidate, won the Republican nomination, while Anthony DiLorenzo captured the GOP primary for the 1st Congressional District seat Pappas is leaving behind.
On the Democratic side of that House contest, Stefany Shaheen, daughter of the incumbent senator, survived a far more suspenseful evening.
The former Portsmouth City Council member defeated New Hampshire Democratic Party Vice Chair Maura Sullivan by a little more than 2 points when Decision Desk HQ called the race at 11:37 p.m. Eastern time.
What Happens Next
Fresh postprimary polling will show whether voters consolidate along party lines or remain open to splitting their tickets.
Until then, the evidence points to a close campaign with an identifiable Democratic favorite, rather than a true fifty-fifty race.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: John Fitzpatrick and Shakeema Edwards.
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