Super Bowl 2021 Odds: Latest Betting Lines and Trends for Chiefs vs. Buccaneers

For the first time in almost a decade, two teams that have met in the regular season will contest the Super Bowl.

When the Kansas City Chiefs and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers cross path in Super Bowl LV on Sunday, they will become the first two franchises to collide in the NFL championship game after meeting in the regular season since the New York Giants defeated the New England Patriots in Super Bowl XLVI.

In the 13 times the rematch of a regular season meeting has taken place in the Super Bowl, the teams that won the regular season matchup have won on six occasions. That bodes well for the Bucs, who lost 27-24 when the Chiefs visited Raymond James Stadium in Week 12 of the regular season.

Here's a look at the main betting trends ahead of Super Bowl LV.

Moneyline

The Chiefs are the consensus favorites, with odds ranging from 3-5 at BetMGM to 8-13 at DraftKings, while the Bucs are 7-5 with both sportsbooks.

Kansas City is 16-1 with Patrick Mahomes as a starter this season and hasn't lost a playoff game since the 2018 AFC Championship Game, when a certain Tom Brady led the New England Patriots to a 37-31 win at Arrowhead Stadium.

According to data from BetMGM, 12 percent of tickets—the number of total bets—and 34 percent of the handle the total amount of money staked—ahead of Super Bowl LV has gone on the Chiefs, while the Bucs have commanded nine percent of the tickets and 11 percent of the handle respectively.

"The public loves Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs but sharp bettors have not wagered on either team," Jason Scott, VP of Trading at BetMGM, told Newsweek.

Worryingly for the Bucs, favorite teams are 35-19 straight up in Super Bowl history and AFC teams have won four of the last five Super Bowls.

Spread

Kansas City opened as a 3.5-point favorite, but the line has since moved and the Chiefs are consensus three-point favorite and 19-20 to cover the spread with BetMGM and 5-6 with DraftKings respectively.

Bookmakers, however, have indicated the line could move again towards the reigning Super Bowl champions.

"Despite seeing most of the early action we moved the line to -3 after significant action from our sharpest football players," Pat Morrow, Head Oddsmaker at Bovada, told Newsweek.

"Since the move, betting trends have remained the same with the Chiefs -3 seeing 75 percent of the action. If we continue to see this one way betting on the Chiefs, I would not be surprised if the line moved back to -3.5."

The Chiefs have won 16 of the 18 games they have played this season, but they are a modest 8-10 against the spread and 7-9 against the spread in games they entered as favorites.

Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs makes adjustments at the line of scrimmage in the second quarter during their game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium on November 29, 2020 in Tampa, Florida. The Chiefs and the Bucs meet in Super Bowl LV. Mike Ehrmann/Getty

Mahomes, however, is 27-13-1 against the spread in games in which the Chiefs were not a double-digit favorite.

Tampa Bay, meanwhile, is 11-8 against the spread, covering by an average of 4.2 points per game.

More significantly, the Bucs are 4-1 against the spread—the NFL's joint-best winning percentage this season—as the underdog and Brady is 40-17-2 in the same scenario in his career.

Brady, however, is 4-5 against the spread in his nine appearances in the Big Game and while betting against six-time Super Bowl champion remains a risky exercise, some bookmakers don't expect Brady's first season in Tampa to have a fairytale end.

"With the Chiefs outright favourites from the start of the season and now 1-2 to win on Sunday, the 'Tom Brady effect' could be a red herring," a Unikrn spokesperson told Newsweek.

"The market [is] suggesting this game is a bridge too far for Brady to cross."

Super Bowl LV marks the first time Brady enters the NFL championship game as an underdog since the Patriots were 14-point underdogs against the St. Louis Rams in 2002, Brady's first appearance in the Super Bowl.

Favorites are 27-25-2 against the spread in the Super Bowl and have covered in the last two and three of the last four.

Total points

The over/under line in terms of total points scored opened at 57—the second-highest in Super Bowl history behind only Super Bowl LI—but has since moved down to 56.

Picking the over/under is historically difficult when it comes to the Super Bowl, where the record stands at 26-26-1—no over/under data is available for Super Bowl I. In the past 20 years, 10 Super Bowls have gone over and 10, including the last two, have gone under.

The picture has been similarly balanced for the Chiefs and the Bucs this season, with the over hitting in nine of Kansas City's 18 games and in 11 of the Bucs' 19 games.

The Bucs and the Chiefs have the second-best and fifth-best offense in the NFL in terms of points scored this season, at an average of 30.7 and 29.6 points per game respectively.

Tampa Bay has scored at least 24 points in its last 10 straight games—including the 27-24 loss at home to Kansas City in Week 12 of the regular season—and arrives in Super Bowl LV on the back of a franchise-record streak of scoring at least 30 points in six consecutive games, while the Chiefs have scored at least 30 points in six of their last seven playoff games.

On the other side of the ball, the Bucs have allowed 22.3 points per game, while the Chiefs have allowed and 22.4, respectively the ninth- and tenth-lowest total in the NFL.

Dig a bit deeper, however, and the gap between the defenses is wider than those figures suggest. According to Football Outsiders, the Bucs are third in DVOA defensive ratings, while the Chiefs rank 22nd.