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By Anna Skinner
Associate News Editor
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The strengthening super El Niño in the Pacific Ocean could amplify more extreme rain events in Florida like the one during the Learjet 60 crash in Palm Beach County on Sunday, a Florida meteorologist has warned.
The private jet crashed into a mobile home community, creating a massive fireball near homes and a major roadway and killing all nine people on board, authorities said. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy confirmed the fatalities in a post on X, calling the incident a "horrific tragedy." The identities of the victims had not been publicly released.
Shortly before the flight from Austin, Texas to the Bahamas crashed, the pilot reported precipitation and requested a climb and then declared an emergency, reporting a descent of 20,000 feet per minute. The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) is leading the investigation, with Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) assistance.
Read More on Weather
The crash happened as extreme rain struck the region. A flood watch due to excessive rainfall was in effect through Monday afternoon, the National Weather Service (NWS) said. WFLA-TV Chief Meteorologist Jeff Berardelli said the extreme rain was amplified by super El Niño.
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What is El Niño?
El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. It occurs between every two to seven years and typically lasts between nine and 12 months, although a particularly strong El Niño can last longer. It is characterized by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific and weakened trade winds, which can influence weather around the globe in different ways.
This year's El Niño has already broken records in terms of how far above average the ocean surface temperatures have risen. A stronger El Niño can be associated with stronger storms.
The El Niño can influence weather patterns around the globe. In the U.S., it typically brings warmer, drier weather to the northern regions during the winter months, with wetter, stormier conditions expected across the South.
AccuWeather Vice President for Forecasting Operations Dan DePodwin told Newsweek the atmospheric conditions that occurred at the same time as the Learjet 60 crash could be common in Florida this winter.
"This crash occurred during a major rain event across the Florida peninsula that brought dangerous flash flooding to Brevard County near Melbourne," said DePodwin. "Heavy rain events as well as severe thunderstorms may be common in Florida this winter. The strengthening Super El Niño, tends to shift the odds toward more heavy rain and severe thunderstorms in Florida, particularly from late fall through winter.
"During El Niño winters, a more active southern jet stream and plentiful Gulf moisture often bring more rain than average and a higher risk of damaging winds and tornadoes from thunderstorms," he added. "This does not mean every storm is caused by El Niño, but it raises the chances of such events."
Increased snowfall is expected over the Intermountain West and high elevations of the U.S. Southwest this year as well.
Torrential Rain Inundates Florida
Super El Niño likely amplified the torrential rainstorms that walloped Florida this weekend, Berardelli said in a post on X on Monday. Seventeen inches of rain feel in only six hours in Palm Beach Gardens, which is nearly double the amount needed to qualify as a 1-in-1,000-year rain event.
"Tragically it may have been the cause of the jet crash, as a meso low formed and concentrated 5” per hour rain rates, and lightning, with possible icing in the cloud," Berardelli posted on X, adding that the extreme rain event was amplified by super El Niño. "A 1,000-year rain event is based on historical statistics, and doesn’t mean it happens only once per 1,000 years, it means there’s a 1-1,000 chance any year. And in today’s warmer climate, with El Niño too, the atmospheric is now more likely to produce these rare events."
A 1-in-1,000 year event also occurred near Crossroads, Mississippi, on Halloween, when a storm flooded the area with nearly 20 inches of rain in only six hours, Fox 8 reported.
Much of Florida still remains under rain-related weather alerts from the NWS on Monday, including severe thunderstorm warnings, flood warnings, and flash flood warnings.
In some cities, residents were told to move to safety.
"Move to higher ground now! This is an extremely dangerous and life-threatening situation," NWS Melbourne said in a flash flood warning. "Do not attempt to travel unless you are fleeing an area subject to flooding or under an evacuation order."
Cities included with the warning were Palm Bay, Melbourne, Malabar, Indialantic, Camp Holly Fish Camp, West Melbourne, Melbourne Beach, Grant-Valkaria, Micco, Melbourne Village, June Park, Melbourne Airport, Spessard Holland Park, Melbourne Shores and Floridana Beach.
In the coming months, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center meteorologists anticipate much of Florida has a high chance at above-average rainfall.
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What Happens Next
El Nino has been strengthening for months, and NOAA meteorologists anticipate it will reach peak strength later this winter. The U.S. feels its strongest El Nino impacts during the fall and winter months.
The NOAA Climate Prediction Center expects the weather phenomenon to range from strong to very strong through March 2027, significantly altering traditional winter patterns. Meteorologists note that the ongoing atmospheric shift will likely push the jet stream southward and eastward, increasing storm activity across the southern tier of the country.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Anna Skinner and Trevor Davies
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