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By Paul Eaton
Ret. Major General and Senior Advisor to VoteVets
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"This constant drum beat of conflict is what strikes me, which is not helpful and not useful," the head of U.S. Central Command said of a rhetorical march toward war with Iran.
The head of CENTCOM was Admiral William Fallon and the year was 2007.
Fast forward about 18 years and President Donald Trump is threatening war with Iran, again. In an interview with NBC's Kristen Welker, Trump declared that if Iran did not make a deal with him over its nuclear ambitions and its proxy forces, "there will be bombing."
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As Admiral Fallon would have observed, none of this is useful, or wise.
First and foremost, Iran had once agreed to a deal with the United States and its allies during President Barack Obama's second term. It was a deal that kept Iran's nuclear ambitions well out of reach, and under the watchful eye of international inspectors. Trump abrogated that deal during his first term, pulling the U.S. out of it, giving Iran the rationale to restart its program. Trump claimed, falsely, that he could get a better deal out of Iran. He never did, and President Joe Biden was unable to bring the Iranians back into the fold. Had Trump not killed the previous deal, we wouldn't be in this position.
Nonetheless, it benefits the U.S. and the entire world to make another deal with Iran and avoid conflict. Trump's bluster and movement of military assets are designed to pressure the Iranians to the negotiating table. But bluffs that are called risk undermining America's ability to create leverage elsewhere down the road.
The Iranian regime is hardly at its strongest point in history. The effects of sanctions and bravery among younger citizens of Iran have led to a serious divide and a rise in support for reformers. While the regime would like to avoid strikes, they also know that the U.S. bombing Iran would have a galvanizing effect, likely rallying the nation. Further, Iran can look at Greenland, the Panama Canal, Mexico and elsewhere to see the emptiness of Trump's military threats.
Even if Trump followed through with bombing, there is no strictly military solution to the Iranian nuclear program anymore. If the president asks, it is the job of the Department of Defense to provide him with viable military options that include realistic risk assessments. Yet with Iran's uranium enrichment already on the precipice of becoming weapons-grade, the Iranian nuclear program is likely too far along to be set back through military actions alone. Diplomacy is the only long-term pathway to manage the Iranian nuclear program. Rather than bringing Iran to the table, strikes against Iran would likely lead Iran to retaliate against U.S. forces and interests in the region.
Finally, saber-rattling with Iran is another example of an erratic and unfocused president. The Trump administration has made a great deal of noise about shifting our defense focus toward China and the Indo-Pacific region. Starting a war with Iran—and potentially setting off regional conflagration—would suck a tremendous amount of resources away from that effort.
Some in the Trump administration will argue that this isn't just about nuclear weapons. It's also about the malign activities of the regime's proxies. But the limits of Iran's conventional capabilities and proxy network have also been on display: Since the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attacks, Iranian proxies and its conventional capabilities have been significantly degraded.
The Iranians reportedly agreed to engage in indirect talks with the U.S., through mediators in Oman. Trump, this week in a press availability with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel, surprised everyone and said the U.S. and Iran were engaged in direct talks. If that is the case, it is welcome news. Yet, in the same media availability, Trump again referred to bombing as the alternative to a deal. Rather than threatening bombs and war and taking our military's focus off the Indo-Pacific, Trump should focus on diplomacy unless he is prepared to let a costly war with Iran be his main accomplishment heading into the 2026 midterms.
Major General (Ret.) Paul Eaton is a Senior Advisor to VoteVets. He served more than 30 years in the United States Army, including combat and post-combat assignments in Iraq, Bosnia and Somalia.
The views expressed in this article are the writer's own.
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