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By Kate Plummer
Senior US News Reporter
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How successful the Republican Party's redistricting efforts in Texas will be in terms of leading the party to electoral success in the midterm elections has been called into question after the GOP lost a special Senate election on Saturday.
In December, the Supreme Court allowed Texas to move forward with a new congressional map in future elections. It came amid a nationwide redistricting battle in which both parties sought to achieve strategic advantages in the November midterms.
The decision only froze the lower court's ruling and did not settle whether the Texas map is lawful. Meanwhile redistricting was not pursued to affect the outcome of the District 9 election, rather to help Texas Republicans pick up other key seats including Texas' 35th congressional district. Nevertheless, after Democrat Taylor Rehmet flipped a historically Republican district of Texas in a Saturday special election, some analysts suggested this showed a swell of support for the Democratic Party that redistricting will not beat.
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Newsweek reached out to the Texas Democratic Party and the Republican Party of Texas by email to comment on this story outside normal business hours.
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Why It Matters
The midterms are important because they have the potential to upset the balance of power in Congress. Traditionally, the party that does not hold the White House tends to do better in midterm elections. In 2018, Republicans lost the House and the Democrats gained 41 seats.
Republicans have slim majorities in both chambers of Congress so every seat matters. Redistricting was seen as a panacea for potential electoral upsets in Texas but if it is found to be ineffectual it will raise questions about the GOP's strategy and allocation of resources in fighting elections.
What To Know
Rehmet, a military veteran and union leader, won Senate District 9, beating the Republican candidate, conservative activist Leigh Wambsganss, by more than 14 percentage points, according to The Associated Press. Trump had won the district by 17 points in the November 2024 presidential election and the election was called after the previous senator, Kelly Hancock, stepped down in mid-2025 to become the state's comptroller.
Calvin Jillson, a politics professor at Southern Methodist University in Texas told Newsweek the election results "have left Republicans across the country speechless."
"Big swings like this, even in a low turnout runoff, are rare and suggest real trouble for Republicans in the coming 2026 midterm elections," he said.
Speaking to Newsweek, Thomas Gift, an associate Professor of Political Science and the director of the Centre on U.S. Politics at University College London said the election "should be a wake-up call for Republicans."
Rehmet "didn’t just flip a seat that Donald Trump carried by more than 17 points—he won it comfortably, by double digits," he said.
"That’s bound to be unnerving for Republicans already worried that broader structural trends are making Democratic House gains increasingly likely. While the reasons for Rehmet’s victory may or may not have been to due to anger with the GOP’s redistricting effort last year, Republicans can’t afford to dismiss the outcome as a fluke."
Meanwhile, writing on X, Aaron Astor, a professor of history at Maryville College said: "Lots of local factors and candidate issues, but a 31-point shift to the Dems in a large-population Texas State Senate race where Trump campaigned for the GOPer is…something Texas pols will watch re: redistricting and November. This is a huge shift."
What People Are Saying
DNC chair Ken Martin said in a statement late on Saturday: "This victory is a warning sign to Republicans across the country. Tonight’s results prove that no Republican seat is safe."
California Democrat Ted Lieu wrote on X: "Democrat Taylor Rehmet just flipped a ruby red state district in TX in a 30+ point shift. See you in November."
What Happens Next
Another election for District 9 will take place in November 2026, to elect a senator for a full term from January 2027 until the end of 2030.
Meanwhile, the Texas redistricting map returns to the Supreme Court for a full decision.
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