Heavy raindrops splashing on the ground

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Anna Skinner

By Anna Skinner

Associate News Editor

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A surge of moisture funneling into the south‑central part of the country midweek could deliver several rounds of heavy rain, setting up a wet stretch that could dump an entire month's worth of rain across three states in a span of only five days.

Forecasters say multiple storm systems will sweep through between Wednesday and Sunday, with rainfall totals piling up quickly. Early guidance shows a pattern favorable for repeated downpours as disturbances track across the southern Plains and into the Mississippi Valley. National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Prediction Center (WPC) meteorologist Marc Chenard told Newsweek that heavy rainfall threats are expected to emerge by midweek, with rounds of heavy rain persisting through Sunday.

By late weekend, eastern Oklahoma, southwestern Arkansas, and northeastern Texas could see 5 to 7 inches of rainfall, according to a precipitation outlook from the NWS WPC, roughly equal to or greater than what they usually receive during an entire month of March, Chenard said, which is typically 4 to 6 inches in this region.

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"Inches of precip for the S. Plains through the South and Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic," the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) posted on X. "Parts of the Northwest/N. Rockies too. Little to no precip for the Southwest, N. Plains, and most of the Southeast."

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Much of this rain will arrive in several rounds, increasing the likelihood of localized trouble spots as the wet pattern persists.

The rainfall will fall on an area that has been experiencing drought conditions, according to ongoing drought monitoring, meaning the moisture will be largely beneficial for soils, reservoirs, and early‑season vegetation. Creeks and rivers will take a longer time to respond to the surge of moisture, Chenard said, however flash flooding could still be a risk later in the week.

As the wet pattern continues, residents in the affected corridor should stay alert for changing conditions and potential flood advisories.

Heaviest rainfall will occur on Wednesday, and then again on Friday into Saturday, Chenard said. The incoming surge of moisture comes as the arrival of March marks the beginning of meteorological spring. More severe weather patterns are likely as the warmer season gets underway, although Chenard said the incoming heavy rain is a few weeks early for the Southern Plains.

Although there are no severe thunderstorm or flood alerts issued across the region as of Monday afternoon, several local NWS offices are warning of possible impacts from the incoming weather. NWS Tulsa, Oklahoma, said there was a marginal risk for excessive rainfall on Wednesday and Friday, whereas the NWS Little Rock office shared the WPC's precipitation outlook.

"Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected across Arkansas over the next seven days," NWS Little Rock said on its website. "An axis of heavy rainfall is expected from Texas into the Ohio Valley. With drought conditions in place across Arkansas, a several day period of rainfall should bring some drought relief to the state."

Looking further ahead, the NWS Climate Prediction Center precipitation outlooks show a chance for above-average temperatures for much of the U.S. through March 15.

A stock image of heavy rain. At least three states are facing an entire month's worth of rain this week.

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