By Joe Edwards
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Tropical Storm Imelda is expected to move across the northwestern Bahamas on Monday, followed by a sharp turn to the east-northeast on Tuesday, moving away from the southeastern U.S. by midweek, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC).
Previous spaghetti models—computer simulations that illustrate potential storm paths using meteorological data—suggested Imelda could potentially track toward the U.S. Southeast Coast.
Why It Matters
The NHC has cautioned that swells and high surf from Imelda and nearby Hurricane Humberto are forecast to create hazardous marine conditions and rip currents along Florida’s east coast and the Georgia shoreline through Monday. These impacts are expected to extend northward, affecting much of the U.S. East Coast early this week.
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What To Know
Meteorologists have indicated that Imelda’s path will likely be pulled east by Humberto.
“The size and strength of Hurricane Humberto will exert more influence on this developing storm and cause it to be pulled out to sea and away from the East Coast. This expected interaction between the two storms should spare the Southeast from a landfall,” AccuWeather senior meteorologist Renee Duff said in an advisory shared with Newsweek on Sunday.
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In an early-morning update on Monday, the NHC said the Imelda was located around 130 miles northwest of the central Bahamas and around 315 miles southeast of Florida’s Cape Canaveral.
The agency reported maximum sustained winds near 45 miles per hour, with higher gusts.
“Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and Imelda is forecast to become a hurricane by Tuesday,” it said.
As for Humberto, the NHC said the Category 4 hurricane is expected to produce dangerous surf for Bermuda and much of the U.S. East Coast this week. It was located about 375 miles south-southwest of Bermuda as of a 9 a.m. UTC update from the agency.
“A gradual turn towards the north is expected over the next day or so. The hurricane is then forecast to turn and accelerate east-northeastward by late Tuesday or early Wednesday,” it said.
“On the forecast track, the center of Humberto will pass well west, and then north of Bermuda on Tuesday and Wednesday.”
It added that Humberto is expected to remain a dangerous major hurricane into Tuesday.
What People Are Saying
AccuWeather meteorologist Alex DaSilva told Newsweek: "Spaghetti models are supposed to be always used with a grain of salt. They are a tool in a meteorologist's tool belt, but they are not the end all be all. I think they are good at showing the range of scenarios within a forecast, but sometimes they show scenarios which are very unrealistic. This is where it's important to have a meteorologist interpret and communicate that information."
Meteorologist Jim Cantore said in a post on X, Sunday: “Trends continue good for the southeast coast with finally Imelda. It’s slowing and it appears it will never make it north of the latitude of the FL/GA line before getting pulled east by Humberto. That should lessen rain impacts even farther for the southeast coast.”
What Happens Next
Forecasts are sometimes subject to change, and the NHC issues updates regularly on its website and social media channels.
Update 9/29/25, 5:25 a.m. ET: This article was updated with additional information.
Update 9/30/2025, 12:58 p.m. ET: This article was updated with comment from Alex DaSilva.
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