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By Khaleda Rahman
National Correspondent
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The Democratic candidate running to be Virginia's governor has the edge, polls and experts say, in a contest that is expected to serve as a referendum on President Donald Trump and his administration's policies.
Democrat Abigail Spanberger, a former U.S. Representative, will face Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears in a election that will see Virginia elect its first female governor in November.
Why It Matters
Virginia is one of only two states that hold statewide elections the year after a presidential election, the other being New Jersey.
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The party in power typically suffers defeat in Virginia's statewide races, with Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin beating former Democratic governor Terry McAuliffe in 2021 after running against former president Joe Biden's policies.
Virginia law does not allow governors to serve consecutive terms. This year's race for governor comes as the Trump administration's cuts to the government have heavily affected the state's large population of federal workers.
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Why Virginia's Vote Could Be 'Trump Referendum'
Larry Sabato, the director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, told Newsweek that Democrats "have the most powerful force for unity and turnout imaginable in 2025. His name is Donald Trump."
Sabato added: "The intensity among Democrats was obvious at the "No Kings" rallies, and Virginia leans Democratic anyway. That helps Spanberger and her ticket."
The Virginia governor's race "will be seen as a bellwether race for the administration and also for the 2026 midterms," David Richards, the chair of the political science department at the University of Lynchburg, told Newsweek.
He said that a win by Earle-Sears "could be taken by Trump as a referendum on his policies, that the average voter outside the beltway is fine with what he is doing."
But a big loss "could be a warning that the GOP faces real problems in the 2026 midterms," he said. "Trump looms large over this race."
Trump's endorsement "will matter" for Earle-Sears, he said, and his policies "will be a talking point for Spanberger and the rest of the Democratic ticket."
Voters are likely to be motivated by the Trump administration's cuts to the federal government, Richards said.
"Northern Virginia often determines who wins the state, as it is simply where the population is the heaviest in Virginia," he said. "And it is Northern Virginia that has been hit the hardest by the DOGE cuts, so I would imagine support for Trump by the middle voter, the independent voter in Northern Virginia is thin at best."
Alex Keena, an associate professor of political science at Virginia Commonwealth University, told Newsweek that Virginia's off-year election cycle was aimed at insulating state elections from national politics.
"In reality, it has the opposite effect, due to the national media," Keena said. "Because there isn't much going on in the years that follow presidential elections, Virginia's state elections get more coverage and as a result they become framed as a referendum on the incumbent president."
Keena added: "I think Spanberger will tie her opponent to the policies of Trump, and the race will almost certainly be framed as a referendum on Trump."
Jennifer Victor, an associate professor of political science at George Mason University, told Newsweek that "to some extent, all elections these days are a referendum on the incumbent party. Due to partisan polarization and narrow legislative majorities, incumbency advantage is all but disappeared."
Victor added: "Given the high number of federal employees and military families in Virginia, the cuts and losses in the federal government are likely to be important to many Virginia voters. Whether these issues will still be seen as a high priority in November is hard to say—it depends very much on what happens between now and then."
What Polls Show in Virginia's Governor Race
Polls conducted since December give Spanberger the lead, but experts say the race remains competitive.
She is leading by +6.6 points, according to RealClearPolling's average of polls.
Spanberger leads Earle-Sears by 17 points—43 percent to 26 percent, according to the the most recent Roanoke College poll. That poll surveyed 658 Virginia residents between May 12 and May 19, and has a weighted margin of error of 5.25 percent.
Another May survey gave Spanberger a four-point lead—52 percent to 48 percent—over Earle-Sears. That poll, conducted by Pantheon Insights and HarrisX for Virginia FREE, surveyed 1,000 likely Virginia voters between May 9 and 13, and has a margin or error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
The race remains competitive, Richards said.
"The Roanoke poll is an outlier," he said. "They asked registered voters, while other polls have asked potential voters (people who say they will vote in the election)."
Victor agreed, adding: "I expect the race to be competitive insomuch as I expect a lot of activity from both parties and their proxies over the next few months. Virginia is running a state election in a national environment and national issues and political figures are likely to play a role in how the campaigns unfold. This heightened attention will make the elections competitive."
But Keena said it could well not be that competitive.
"On the one hand, Virginia is still a competitive state. While the Democrats have been doing very well in statewide contests since 2009, Republicans won the 2021 election when Glenn Youngkin was at the top of the ticket. This demonstrated that with the right candidate running a very good campaign, Republicans are still competitive," Keena said.
"On the other hand, Trump is very unpopular in Virginia. The idea that we should dismantle the federal bureaucracy or take a wrecking ball to federal spending puts a lot of Virginia voters off, because so many people in Northern and Southeastern Virginia have jobs that are tied to the federal government. This is part of the reason that Trump has never won here, and his endorsements haven't done well either."
Keena added that it "will come down to whether Spanberger can mobilize young voters and the suburban "sometimes" voters that Democrats have relied on in previous cycles."
Sabato also noted Trump's unpopularity in the state, adding that he suspects turnout will be high where DOGE cuts have hit the hardest.
"But it's worth remembering that Winsome Earle-Sears has won two big upsets in her political career, defeating an incumbent Democrat in a heavily Black district in Norfolk and then her election as lieutenant governor in 2021," he said. "So Democrats shouldn't get overconfident."
What People Are Saying
Abigail Spanberger wrote in a recent op-ed for The Roanoke Times: "As governor, I'm ready to work with anyone — regardless of party — to bring prices down. With chaos in Washington threatening to make life more expensive for families in the Roanoke area and throughout our commonwealth, Virginians deserve leaders who will put partisan politics aside and work together to offer families real relief."
Winsome Earle-Sears said in a statement in April: "The stakes in this race couldn't be higher – we must continue our work to protect the Commonwealth from radical changes that would undo the progress we've made in restoring prosperity to Virginia. I will never stop fighting to make life more affordable, our schools stronger, and our communities safer. We've delivered important progress over the past four years, and we still have so much more to do."
What's Next
Virginia's gubernatorial election will be held on November 4, 2025.
Update 6/19/25, 9 a.m. ET: This article has been updated with comments from Larry Sabato, Jennifer Victor and Alex Keena.
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